Trading The Close Market Recap - 12/30/2025: Bitcoin vs SPY Divergence, Silver Surge & Under Armour Breakout

As the year draws to a close, the markets are presenting a fascinating mosaic of conflicting signals, news-driven breakouts, and classic technical patterns. In this afternoon's Trading The Close show, Pro Trader Drew Dosek of Verified Investing provided a detailed roadmap for navigating this complex environment, highlighting key levels and psychological insights that separate successful traders from the crowd. From the relentless momentum in silver to a billionaire-fueled rally in Under Armour, today’s analysis offers a masterclass in identifying high-probability setups as we head into the new year.

Conflicting Signals: Reading the Tea Leaves in Bitcoin and the S&P

In trading, it's rare for the market to send a single, unambiguous signal. More often, traders must weigh conflicting evidence across different timeframes to form a probabilistic view. The current setups in Bitcoin and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) are perfect examples of this dynamic, where short-term strength is battling a more ominous long-term pattern.

Bitcoin, for instance, has been exhibiting what Drew describes as "beautiful sideways consolidation." This type of price action, where a security moves sideways after a push higher, is typically considered near-term bullish. It suggests that buyers are absorbing supply and gathering strength for the next leg up. However, zooming out reveals a more concerning picture. This consolidation is occurring within the context of a larger bear flag pattern—a formation that typically resolves to the downside.

This creates a technical tug-of-war. The near-term pattern suggests a potential test of the 50% parallel channel line at $93,000 USD. A decisive break above this level would be needed to invalidate the larger bearish structure and could "release price action to go up and test this inclining trend line right around $103,000." For now, traders are left watching to see which pattern will ultimately prevail.

Similarly, the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is at a critical juncture after breaking a key inclining trend line. This technical breakdown "does not look so good for the near term, folks." The immediate path of least resistance appears to be lower, towards a support zone just under 245, formed by previous consolidation. A bounce from that level could see a retest of resistance around the 254 range. However, a more significant rally into the new year could theoretically take the IWM all the way back up to retest the broken trend line from underneath, a level that could be as high as 257. This setup underscores the importance of monitoring key support and resistance levels to gauge whether a breakdown will follow through or if buyers will step in to reclaim control.

The Relentless Rise of Silver

While gold shows signs of bearish consolidation, its counterpart, silver, is telling a much different story. Drew noted that silver is "trying to be relentless," and its chart action is being driven by a powerful combination of technical momentum and fundamental news.

Recently, new legislation emerged from China that will restrict some of the silver sold globally. This potential supply constraint has added fuel to an already hot market, creating a dynamic that Drew likens to a meme stock. "Keep in mind, this has been almost like a meme stock, in a way, with as much as silver has pushed up recently on the charts."

This relentless buying pressure has a clear technical target in sight. A large cup and handle pattern on the chart projects a measured move target up to $89.38 USD. This target is reinforced by the top end of a parallel channel, which provides confluent resistance around $88.26 USD. This tight resistance zone is a likely place for the rally to finally pause and reverse, potentially sending silver back down to test its inclining trend line near $71.00 USD.

The divergence between gold and silver is a critical theme. Gold is currently exhibiting classic bearish consolidation at its 50% parallel channel line just above $4,300 USD, suggesting a potential move lower to support at $4,238 USD. Silver, however, is ignoring this weakness, demonstrating how a strong narrative and speculative fervor can sometimes allow an asset to decouple from its historical correlations. For now, the path of least resistance in silver appears higher, with traders eagerly watching to see if that $89.00 USD target will be tagged in the coming weeks.

Energy Markets: Patience and Pattern Recognition

The energy sector offers a valuable lesson in patience, as both oil and natural gas are coiling in consolidation patterns. U.S. Oil is largely chopping sideways, but a new, short-term declining trend line has formed, creating immediate resistance at $58.96 USD. A breakout above this level would open the door to the next major resistance zone between $60.00 and $61.00 USD.

Natural gas, meanwhile, is providing a fascinating study in reading price action. The chart is forming a clear bear flag, but the key insight comes from the candle wicks. Drew pointed out the long upper wicks that have been forming recently: "You see these major wicks that are coming up. That's telling you guys there are sellers here in nat gas."

These wicks represent failed attempts to rally. Each time buyers push the price up, sellers step in and push it back down by the end of the trading session. This indicates a supply overhead that needs to be absorbed. However, this supply is not infinite. "Once those sellers exhaust themselves, then the price can start moving back up." Until then, the prevailing bear flag pattern suggests the next logical target is the support level at $3.30 USD. This setup is a perfect illustration of how traders can use candlestick analysis to understand the real-time battle between buyers and sellers.

A Tale of Two Techs: META's Fight and Rivian's Retreat

Within the tech and EV sectors, individual stocks are carving out unique paths. META Platforms is in the midst of a technical battle. After recently breaking a key inclining trend line—a bearish signal—the stock is refusing to break down further. Instead, it is putting in bullish consolidation, fighting to regain its footing. This constructive price action could fuel a move up to the 50% parallel channel line around $704.00 USD.

This level is particularly significant because it aligns perfectly with a zone of consolidation from October 2025, creating a powerful confluence of resistance. A sustained move through this area would be a major victory for bulls and could pave the way for a larger recovery toward the $750.00 USD range. Given META's tremendous decline from nearly $800.00 USD down to sub-$600.00 USD, it stands as a prime candidate for investors looking to rotate into beaten-down mega-caps.

In the EV space, Rivian is experiencing a healthy and predictable pullback. After a strong run, the stock fell over 5% today, but this decline is leading it directly into a critical support zone. Two key trend lines, which previously acted as resistance, should now flip to become support at $18.86 USD and $18.05 USD. Drew explained the logic behind the pullback, noting that the price had only tagged the top of its parallel channel twice. "It's very rare for price to break through a top range of a parallel channel with only tagging it two times." Therefore, a retreat to test established support is not only logical but also creates a potential buying opportunity for another attempt at the channel's upper bound, which could reach as high as $22.62 USD by April.

The Psychology of a Bottom: The Under Armour Breakout

Perhaps the most compelling story of the day was Under Armour, which surged over 8.5% on major news. The catalyst was the announcement that Canadian billionaire Prem Watsa had acquired 15.6 million shares, a massive vote of confidence that sent investors scrambling into the stock.

The move was technically significant, as it pushed the price to a close above a long-term declining trend line that has capped the stock for months. This has the potential to be the start of a major rebound, but traders should be aware of the significant resistance overhead. A confluence of horizontal resistance and another key trend line creates a formidable challenge around the $5.34 USD area.

Beyond the technicals, the Under Armour setup provided a platform for one of the most important trading lessons: the danger of shorting a stock at the bottom of its chart. Drew offered a critical piece of advice for traders tempted to bet against such a powerful reversal:

"When a price is down here at the bottom of a chart, guys, don't be looking to short these things… if price starts getting and moving up higher on the charts, they're going to cover these shorts, which is going to accelerate the move up."

This phenomenon, known as a short squeeze, can create explosive upward moves that defy traditional valuation metrics. Instead of trying to fight the momentum, the more prudent strategy is to "stand back, watch the pattern, wait for a place to buy the breakout rather than short it." This allows a trader to ride the wave of momentum up into resistance levels, where profits can then be taken.

Conclusion: Navigating the Year-End Crosscurrents

As we close out the year, the market is not offering easy answers. Instead, it's presenting a series of complex puzzles that require careful analysis and disciplined execution. From the conflicting timeframes in Bitcoin to the fundamental fuel driving silver and the psychological dynamics at play in Under Armour, the current environment is rich with opportunity for the prepared trader.

The key themes from today's recap—understanding pattern confluence, respecting different timeframes, reading candlestick clues, and applying sound trading psychology—are timeless principles that will serve investors well into the new year. By focusing on high-probability setups and waiting patiently for the market to come to predefined levels, traders can confidently navigate the crosscurrents and position themselves for success in 2026.