My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 12/29/2025: Silver Crash, S&P Resistance, and 3 Value Stocks (KHC OXY CAG)

Even during a typically quiet holiday week, the markets have delivered a jolt of volatility, reminding traders that opportunities and risks never truly sleep. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, dissected a massive reversal in the silver market, a critical juncture for the S&P 500, and identified several under-the-radar stocks that could become top performers in the coming year.

The day's biggest story is a cautionary tale about market psychology, hype, and the brutal efficiency with which charts can dismantle a popular narrative. Let's dive deeper into the key lessons from today's session.

Silver's Parabolic Pop and Painful Drop

Over the weekend, the hype surrounding silver reached a fever pitch. Social media was flooded with calls for $300.00 USD silver, fueled by narratives of supply cuts and insatiable demand. The price action reflected this euphoria, with silver surging to nearly $84.00 USD per ounce overnight. Then, reality hit.

In a stunning reversal, silver plunged, falling over 13% from its overnight highs to trade in the mid-$60s. This violent move serves as a powerful, real-time lesson in market dynamics. As Gareth explained, such climactic events are often a prelude to significant corrections.

"When everyone is hyped up about something, it usually means it's due for a big correction. Whether or not this is a cycle top, we don't know, but ultimately this is how corrections form."

This pattern is not unique to silver. It’s a recurring theme across all markets. We saw it in Bitcoin in 2021 when calls for $250,000.00 USD were rampant at the peak. We’ve seen it in countless AI and tech stocks that soared on hype only to crash back to earth. The common thread is the narrative. When the story becomes overwhelmingly bullish and detached from the underlying price structure, it's often a signal that large players are creating an exit for their positions.

Gareth was blunt about the nature of these narratives: "…that to me sounds like narratives driven by institutions for exit liquidity." The stories of supply shortages and Chinese supply cuts, while containing elements of truth, can be amplified and weaponized to generate public buying frenzy—the very liquidity institutions need to sell their large positions at elevated prices. Once they have sold, the narrative can shift in an instant.

The Psychology of the Herd: A Timeless Trap

The price action in silver perfectly illustrates a fundamental concept of human psychology that traders must master to survive. Gareth created an image over the weekend that captures this dynamic perfectly: a small crowd looking to buy silver at $20.00 USD, and a massive crowd clamoring to buy it at $79.00 USD.

This is the herd mentality in action. The fear of missing out (FOMO) is a more powerful motivator for most people than the logic of buying an asset when it is undervalued and ignored. True, sustainable wealth is built by doing the opposite—accumulating assets when they are out of favor.

"You gotta be buying when everyone else hates it."

This principle separates long-term investors from what Gareth calls "weak money" or "fly-by-night traders." Those who have been accumulating precious metals for decades are now being rewarded, but they also understand the cyclical nature of markets. They recognize that parabolic moves are unsustainable and are often followed by sharp corrections. The new money, drawn in by the promise of getting rich quick, provides the fuel for the final leg up and becomes the bagholder when the trend inevitably reverses.

Learning to control the emotional pull of the herd is arguably the most difficult—and most important—skill in trading. It requires discipline, patience, and an unwavering trust in technical analysis over emotional narratives. The silver chart was screaming caution with its vertical price ascent long before this morning's collapse. A disciplined trader would never chase that kind of move, regardless of how compelling the story sounds.

The S&P 500 Approaches a Brick Wall

While silver provided the fireworks, the broader stock market is quietly approaching its own moment of truth. The S&P 500 is nearing a massive, multi-year resistance trendline. While many are bullish heading into the new year, this technical barrier represents a formidable obstacle.

Gareth used a powerful analogy to describe the risk-reward proposition at this level: "It's like looking at a wall and being like, oh, I can run right through that wall… would you rather bet money that someone can just run into a brick wall and break through? Or would you rather see them break through and then put your bet on it?"

This is the essence of prudent, probability-based trading. Instead of betting on a low-probability event (breaking through major resistance on the first try), a professional trader waits for confirmation. Let the market prove its strength by decisively clearing the level before committing capital. Until then, the odds favor a rejection and a significant pullback. The fact that the market is showing weakness during a low-volume holiday week adds another layer of intrigue, suggesting institutional players may be using this time to begin unloading positions.

A Black Swan in the Making? The Sovereign Debt Dilemma

Looking ahead to 2026, one of the biggest potential risks lies not in equities, but in the U.S. debt market. Gareth highlighted a startling and under-reported statistic that points to a brewing structural problem.

"10 years ago, 40% of all U.S. debt and sovereign debt was bought by other countries. In this day and age, meaning now only other countries are only buying 15% of U.S. debt…"

This is a monumental shift. Sovereign nations are historically stable, long-term holders of debt. They don't panic-sell based on short-term market fluctuations. The new buyers of U.S. debt are increasingly hedge funds and other financial players who are far more sensitive to market volatility. In a crisis, these entities are likely to dump their holdings en masse to protect their capital, which could trigger a bond market crash.

This creates a dangerous feedback loop. As foreign demand wanes, the U.S. will have to offer higher interest rates on its long-term debt to attract buyers. This means that even if the Federal Reserve cuts short-term rates, the long end of the curve (10-, 20-, and 30-year yields) could be forced higher, creating a massive headwind for the economy and the stock market. This is a potential Black Swan event that few are discussing but one that every serious investor should have on their radar.

Finding Value in a Hype-Driven Market

In a market obsessed with the next shiny object, the greatest opportunities are often found in the most neglected corners. Gareth highlighted three large-cap, value-oriented stocks with compelling long-term technical setups that could be top performers in 2026.

• Kraft Heinz (KHC): This consumer staples giant is trading near multi-decade lows. The chart shows a classic bottoming formation: a breakout from a long-term wedge pattern, a successful retest of that breakout level, and a double bottom at key support. This technical confluence suggests the path of least resistance is now to the upside.
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY): With a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern forming, OXY presents an interesting energy play. What makes it particularly compelling is the valuation. As Gareth noted, investors can currently buy the stock for $5.00 USD cheaper per share than legendary investor Warren Buffett paid for his significant stake.
• ConAgra (CAG): Perhaps the most powerful setup of the three, ConAgra's chart shows a rare and remarkable confluence of two ultra-long-term trendlines. One trendline dates back to 1982, connecting major market cycle lows. The other dates back to 1997. These two lines are merging precisely at the current price. As Gareth stated, "This to me is one of the most powerful things when you see long-term trend lines merging at price. This to me is a very attractive potential player in the next 12 months."

These setups are the antithesis of the silver hype. They are not flashy or exciting, but they are built on decades of price history and powerful technical principles, offering a much more favorable risk-reward profile for the patient investor.

Conclusion: The Unwavering Power of Charts and Logic

Today's market action provides a masterclass in the core principles of successful trading. The dramatic reversal in silver is a stark reminder of the dangers of chasing hype and emotional narratives. The looming resistance on the S&P 500 underscores the importance of respecting technical levels and managing risk. And the compelling charts of unloved stocks like ConAgra demonstrate the opportunities that arise when one focuses on logic and long-term patterns instead of short-term noise.

As we close out the year, the lessons are clear. Markets are driven by human psychology, but price charts provide an objective roadmap to navigate the emotional tides. By learning to read these charts, control our emotions, and think in terms of probabilities, we can avoid becoming exit liquidity for the smart money and instead position ourselves for success in the year to come.