My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 04/01/2026: Geopolitics and Rising Yields Drive Volatility, Earnings, Meta, Gold and Bitcoin

In virtually any environment, markets are a relentless battlefield where logic and charts constantly wage war against hype and narratives. Over the past few trading sessions, we have witnessed a masterclass in extreme volatility, driven by a potent cocktail of geopolitical headlines, shifting interest rate expectations, and dramatic earnings reactions. In this morning’s My Trading Game Plan show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, provided a comprehensive breakdown of these market dynamics, revealing how probability-based trading can help investors navigate the chaos.

Today’s analysis delves deep into the technical setups and psychological extremes currently dominating the tape, offering crucial insights for both day traders and long-term swing traders.

Geopolitics, Oil, and the 10-Year Yield Dynamic

The trading day began with a stark reminder of how rapidly geopolitical headlines can alter market trajectories. Following a massive rally yesterday, the markets were poised to open higher until a new Truth Social post from the President shifted the narrative. The post addressed a ceasefire request, with a firm prerequisite attached.

"The president's response: open the strait, the Strait of Hormuz, and then we'll talk," Gareth noted, highlighting the immediate market reaction.

This geopolitical standoff creates a scenario where a resolution may be delayed until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. The market, which hates uncertainty, immediately began to fade from its pre-market highs. This headline directly impacted the energy sector, causing oil to push back up after experiencing an astonishing overnight drop from about $103 down to $90 or just below.

This resurgence in oil prices acts as a direct catalyst for the 10-year Treasury yield, which spiked in tandem. The relationship between the 10-year yield and equity markets is one of the most critical dynamics for traders to understand. When yields rise, the cost of capital increases, putting downward pressure on corporate valuations—particularly in the growth and technology sectors.

Technically, the 10-year yield found textbook support right at the 4.3% zone, a level defined by two previous pivot highs before a major drawdown. If the yield can break below this 4.3% zone, technicals suggest it should head down to 4.2% and potentially back below 4%. However, as Gareth pointed out, achieving a sub-4% yield likely requires the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to relieve the inflationary pressure of oil.

The S&P 500 and the Discipline of Scaling Out

Despite the morning's geopolitical headwinds, we cannot ignore the sheer magnitude of yesterday's market action. The NASDAQ surged nearly 4%, while the S&P 500 posted an impressive 2.9% gain. This monster rally did not catch disciplined technical traders by surprise.

"I am more long the market right now as of Monday than I have been at any prior time this year," Gareth revealed, explaining how extreme bearish sentiment and oversold conditions at the midpoint of a parallel channel provided a high-probability buy signal.

However, the most valuable lesson from this setup isn't just about knowing when to buy; it's about knowing how to manage the trade once it moves in your favor. After capturing a rapid bounce, Gareth began unloading portions of his long positions, securing 5% to 10% gains in momentum names like Rigetti (RGTI) and OKLO in just a single day.

This strategy of scaling out is a hallmark of professional trading. Retail traders often hold full positions hoping for a "home run," only to watch profits evaporate when the market reverses. By taking half of a position off the table, traders reduce their net exposure while still leaving room for further upside.

Gareth’s overarching target for this market bounce is 7%. With the S&P having achieved about 3% so far, there is still potential upside, but markets rarely move in straight lines. A retracement of 2% or 3% is entirely possible, reinforcing the necessity of taking partial profits into strength.

Earnings Carnage: The Difference Between Day and Swing Trades

Earnings season consistently provides some of the most lucrative, albeit volatile, trading opportunities. Today, two major consumer brands—Nike and RH (formerly Restoration Hardware)—were absolutely decimated following their reports. Analyzing these drops provides a perfect framework for understanding the distinct differences between day trading and swing trading levels.

Nike's Technical Breakdown

Nike suffered a massive standard deviation move, breaking down to $46.50 this morning after closing yesterday around $53. When a stock experiences a gap down of this magnitude, traders must zoom out on the charts to find historical support.

For a swing trade—a position held for days, weeks, or months—Gareth identified a pristine level based on a 2013 to 2014 pivot high that aligns with a historical gap fill. This multi-factor confluence makes it a high-probability zone for long-term accumulation.

However, day trading requires a completely different lens. Day traders are looking for intraday exhaustion points to capture quick, same-day snapbacks. For Nike, Gareth isolated a day trade level between $45.50 and the $45 even number, utilizing a specific pivot high and pivot low convergence.

RH's Search for Support

RH presents an even more extreme case study. After trading as high as $140 going into earnings, the stock plummeted below $108. Finding a day trade level on a chart this broken is incredibly tricky.

While a phenomenal swing trade level exists much lower at $76, day traders must look for closer technical structures. Gareth identified a gap fill at $86, and a descending trendline pivot around $94.

The psychology of day trading these "falling knives" requires strict discipline. Traders are not looking to catch the ultimate bottom; they are looking for a mechanical reversion to the mean. On a stock like RH, a successful day trade might only target a $1 to $2 bounce. With leveraged positions, however, these small percentage moves can translate into significant profits.

Meta and the Psychology of Maximum Fear

Perhaps the most fascinating psychological case study in today's market is Meta. In March alone, the stock suffered a brutal drawdown, falling from almost $700 down to $520 at last Friday's lows.

Over the weekend, financial media narratives reached a fever pitch, with pundits declaring this Meta's "tobacco moment"—implying severe, existential regulatory crackdowns. While retail investors panicked, professional chartists saw a glaring contrarian signal.

"This is their ‘tobacco moment’… what does that do in investors' minds when you're hearing that? It creates maximum fear," Gareth explained.

Understanding the mechanics of maximum fear is crucial for probability-based trading. When the media narrative becomes universally apocalyptic, every weak hand in the market sells. If everyone who wants to sell has already sold, there is a total lack of overhead supply. At that point, even a tiny influx of buying pressure will cause the stock to surge, forcing short sellers to cover and triggering a massive short-squeeze rally.

We saw this exact psychological extreme in the past with commodities, such as the hysteria that oil was going to the moon at $120, or the panic buying of gold at $5,600, or the mania that silver at $120 was inevitably heading to $250. When a trade becomes "maximum bull" or "maximum bear," it is almost always a reversal signal.

Ignoring the media's "tobacco moment" narrative and trusting the oversold technicals allowed traders to capitalize on Meta's explosive bounce of almost 7% yesterday. It is a stark reminder to separate emotion from execution.

Precious Metals: Institutional Sentiment Traps

The precious metals complex continues to offer complex technical puzzles. Gold recently broke above short-term minor resistance at $4,660, with the next resistance target sitting at $4,875.

However, traders must not lose sight of the broader macro structure. Despite this short-term push, gold remains in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Unless gold can take out $5,400 and its all-time highs, the larger downside targets of $3,900 or $3,500 remain firmly in play.

What makes this setup particularly dangerous is the psychology of retail sentiment. As gold inches higher, retail traders who were previously bearish begin to flip bullish.

This shift in sentiment is exactly what institutional algorithms look for. Institutions need retail liquidity to offload their massive positions. By allowing the price to creep up and trigger retail FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), institutions create the perfect environment to pull the rug. Watching sentiment indicators is just as important as watching price action when trading these macro levels.

Silver, meanwhile, remained relatively flat today after a strong showing yesterday. It has yet to test its key resistance at $82. Much like gold, the broader technical structure points to significant downside risk, with Gareth maintaining targets of $49 to $54 per ounce.

Bitcoin's Consolidation and Natural Gas Divergence

In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin is attempting to catch a bid, though it remains tethered to the broader equity market's intraday fades. Technically, Bitcoin is doing exactly what it needs to do to maintain its bullish posture. It is holding the critical "green bar low" on a daily closing basis—a line in the sand that has not yet been violated.

Furthermore, Bitcoin continues to print higher lows. However, consolidation can only last so long before momentum dies. To trigger the next major leg up toward the $80,000 to $85,000 target, Bitcoin desperately needs to break through the heavy resistance zone of $75,000 to $76,000. Until that breakout occurs, range-bound trading remains the most probable scenario.

Finally, natural gas presents a cautionary tale about intermarket divergence. The commodity is currently compressing into the apex of a wedge pattern, meaning a violent breakout or breakdown is imminent, likely by next week.

Many traders mistakenly went long on natural gas simply because oil was moving, expecting a correlated rally. When that rally failed to materialize, it created a trap. Those frustrated long positions now represent potential overhead supply; if oil starts to pull back, those natural gas holders may capitulate and dump their positions. Because the technical read is currently muddy, the most professional action a trader can take is to step aside and wait for a clearer, high-probability setup.

Conclusion: Logic Over Hype

Today’s market action perfectly encapsulates why trading based on news headlines or media narratives is a recipe for disaster. Whether it is navigating the geopolitical shockwaves of the Strait of Hormuz, fading the "tobacco moment" panic in Meta, or waiting patiently for precise day trading levels on broken stocks like Nike and RH, success in the markets requires an unwavering commitment to the charts.

Probability-based trading is not about being right 100% of the time; it is about identifying asymmetrical risk-to-reward setups, scaling out of winning positions to protect capital, and having the humility to step aside when a chart—like natural gas—does not offer a clear edge.

As we move through the rest of this highly volatile week, traders must remain vigilant, strip the emotion from their decision-making, and trust the technical levels. To master these techniques and view the markets through the lens of a multi-millionaire trader, be sure to tune into the daily My Trading Game Plan show and explore the extensive educational resources available at VerifiedInvesting.com.