My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 07/02/2026: NFP Miss Fuels Holiday Bounce While 10-Year Yield and SMH Pressure Tech

Jobs Miss Gave Stocks a Bounce, But Yields and Semiconductors Still Control the Read

The weak non-farm payrolls report gave stocks a reason to bounce ahead of the July 4 holiday, but Drew Dosek’s read on My Trading Game Plan Revealed was not simply “bad news is good news.” The better framework is more conditional than that.

The market can float higher in a thin holiday tape if yields stay contained and tech leadership holds up. If the 10-year yield starts pushing through resistance and semiconductors confirm a weekly reversal, the jobs-report bounce becomes much less convincing.

That was the real setup from the session. The headline was the jobs miss. The signal was whether the major risk-on barometers could confirm the move.

The Jobs Number Created the Bounce, Not the Final Read

The economy added 57,000 jobs, below the 115,000 expected. That softer labor print gave equities an immediate lift because markets read weaker data as potential relief on the rate front.

That first reaction makes sense, but it does not settle the chart. If future rate expectations remain firm, the market still has to deal with the same pressure point: yields. A weak jobs number can create a short-term pop, especially before a holiday weekend, but follow-through still has to come through price.

That is why Drew’s framework came back to the same question: can the indices clear resistance while yields stay capped?

SPY and QQQ Are Testing Holiday-Week Resistance

SPY closed the prior session at 745.76 and was trading near 747 during the morning session. The key resistance sits just below the psychological 750 level, with the declining trendline near 749.80.

A close above that area would improve the short-term risk-on read and keep the holiday float intact. A rejection there would make the bounce look more tactical than durable.

QQQ has a similar setup. The level that matters is the declining trendline near 738.63, which also lines up with the earlier weekly highs. In a low-volume holiday tape, a push into resistance is not enough by itself. The market needs confirmation.

The indices can float in thin conditions, but the chart is forcing a decision at those levels.

The 10-Year Yield Is the Bigger Risk Barometer

The 10-year yield remains one of the cleanest macro tells on the board. Drew highlighted 4.484% as the key resistance level, tied to the March 27 pivot high.

As long as the 10-year stays below that area, equities have room to breathe. A move back above 4.484% shifts the read and opens the door to a test of the next declining trendline near 4.55%.

That matters because higher yields pressure the exact areas that have carried the market: growth, technology, and semiconductors. The market can absorb a soft jobs headline. It has a harder time absorbing a yield breakout.

Semiconductors Are the Chart That Can Change the Tone

The semiconductor ETF, SMH, is where the risk-on read gets tested. After a 5.4% decline, SMH attempted to bounce, but the key resistance sits near 639.89, the prior session high.

The more important issue is the weekly candle. SMH is at risk of printing an engulfing weekly reversal, which would be a meaningful warning sign for tech leadership. A weekly reversal in semiconductors does not automatically break the entire market, but it does change the quality of the rally.

That is the point. If SPY and QQQ are trying to clear resistance while SMH is confirming a bearish weekly structure, the market is sending mixed signals. If SMH invalidates that reversal and reclaims resistance, the risk-on case gets stronger.

This is why semiconductors matter more than the jobs headline today.

Commodities Are Still Being Defined by Trendlines

Gold remains trapped near an inclining trendline, with price hovering around the 4,136 area. A reclaim and close above that structure would improve the read and put 4,274 back in play as the next major resistance.

Silver is also trying to break out of bearish consolidation, but it still has declining trendline resistance overhead. The original levels should be double-checked for formatting, but the structure is clear: silver needs a clean break above trendline resistance before the bullish read improves.

Oil remains under pressure, with 64.60 as the support level that matters below. On the upside, 69.45 is the more important resistance area because it lines up with the declining trendline from July 2024. Until oil can reclaim that structure, rallies are still being tested from below.

Natural gas has already given a cleaner breakdown signal. Price broke below an inclining trendline, retested the breakdown area, and continued lower. A daily close below 3.14 would increase the probability of a move toward 3.03.

Bitcoin and MSTR Remain Structure-Driven

Bitcoin continues to trade with a bearish structure in the background. The near-term resistance sits near 63,493, where the current bear-flag structure runs into trendline pressure.

The larger weekly chart still matters more. Bitcoin remains inside a broader head-and-shoulders pattern, with the measured-move level near 37,508 if that structure continues to play out. That downside framework stays relevant until price invalidates the right shoulder with a stronger move higher.

MSTR remains the equity proxy to watch. The stock tested the 99 area pre-market and is now pressing back toward the lower boundary of its broken declining parallel channel. The key level is 101.66.

A close back above 101.66 would put MSTR back inside the channel and open the path toward the next resistance near 131.51. A failure there keeps the broken-channel read intact.

Individual Setups: RBLX, HUD, GLW, and AMAT

The individual equity setups from the session were less important than the macro framework, but they still showed the same lesson: confirmation matters.

HUD gapped sharply higher after clearing the 110 resistance area. After that kind of move, Drew’s point was not to chase the opening strength. The next real test sits near 120, where trendline resistance comes into play.

RBLX offers the cleaner breakout-retrace structure. The stock broke above a declining trendline from February 10, confirmed the breakout, and is now in position where a pullback toward the 52.21 area would test the prior breakout zone. As long as that trendline holds on a closing basis, the structure remains constructive. A close back below it would weaken the breakout read.

GLW and AMAT are the caution side of the tape. Both are at risk of printing weekly topping tails, which would show that buyers pushed price higher but failed to hold the move into the close. For GLW, that matters because the last major weekly topping tail preceded a sharp decline. AMAT is showing a similar warning structure after its recent weakness.

The important part is not predicting the candle before it closes. The important part is respecting the weekly close once it confirms.

Bottom Line

The jobs miss gave the market a short-term excuse to bounce, but the charts still have to confirm the move.

SPY needs to deal with 749.80. QQQ needs to clear 738.63. The 10-year yield needs to stay below 4.484%, or the pressure starts building again toward 4.55%. SMH needs to avoid confirming a bearish weekly reversal if tech leadership is going to stay intact.

That is the framework. The market can drift higher into a holiday weekend, but the real signal comes from yields, semiconductors, and whether the major indices can close above resistance.

Until those pieces line up, the bounce is still conditional.