Holiday Week Strength Needs Confirmation As Semiconductors Start To Crack

Markets opened the holiday-shortened week with a constructive tone, but Drew Dosek’s message on Trading the Close was not to treat every green candle the same. The real setup is more nuanced.

With July 4th falling on Saturday and U.S. markets closed Friday, this week compresses several major catalysts into a thinner-liquidity environment. JOLTS hits Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, followed by non-farm payrolls at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on July 2. That matters because holiday weeks often change how price moves. As institutions step away, volume can fade, selling pressure can thin out, and markets can drift higher without the same level of confirmation they would need in a normal week.

That was the core takeaway from Drew’s recap: a float is possible, but low-volume strength still has to prove itself at the right levels.

“Unless, of course, there’s news that breaks in the Middle East, something that may catch us off guard, but in large part, the institutions do step away once we get closer and closer towards the holiday.”

That creates a different kind of tape. When large funds, institutions, and major block flow slow down, the market can lift simply because there is less supply pressing against it. But that does not automatically make the move durable. Levels reached in a holiday-week drift often need to be tested again once full participation returns.

The Indexes Look Better, But Confirmation Still Matters

The S&P 500 setup improved today after price reclaimed the inclining trend line that had capped the prior four sessions. Friday’s candle showed the battle clearly: a narrow body with a long wick, buyers and sellers fighting around a key technical zone without either side fully taking control. Today, buyers got the better close.

The next upside reference is gap fill resistance at 744.39. If price can secure a daily close above that area, the next resistance comes in near the declining trend line around 750. That is the path bulls want to see.

The QQQ chart is similar, but not identical. The Nasdaq 100 ETF defended its June 5 low during last week’s pullback and stayed inside the prior range rather than breaking down cleanly. Now the chart is consolidating. A push through the June 25 pivot high opens room toward the $738.10 gap fill, with a possible return toward the upper end of the parallel channel if momentum continues.

The downside level to watch is $695.25. A break of the current consolidation would shift attention there first.

The important point is that both index charts are sitting near decision areas. In a normal-volume week, a breakout through those levels would carry more weight. In a holiday week, Drew’s framework is more cautious: let price confirm, then judge the move.

SMH Is The Chart That Can Change The Read

The most important chart in Drew’s recap was not the S&P 500 or QQQ. It was SMH.

Semiconductors have been the leadership group behind the broader market advance, especially with AI infrastructure and data center spending driving investor attention. When that group is clean, the market can absorb a lot. When that group starts to crack, the index strength needs more scrutiny.

SMH recently broke below a sharply inclining trend line. The first break happened on June 23, but Drew made the important point that a break and a confirmation are not the same thing. The confirmation came Friday, June 26, when price closed below the low of the breaking candle.

“These are starting to show breaks of the ice, breaks of the current trend. It doesn’t mean we can’t go recapture trend and get back above it or even get all-time highs and still remain broken.”

That is the key piece of trader logic. Because the broken trend line is so steep, SMH can drift higher, and potentially even press toward new highs, while still remaining below the broken structure. Price can look strong on the surface while the prior trend remains technically damaged.

Drew is also watching the early shape of a possible head and shoulders pattern. The left shoulder and head are visible, but the structure is not complete. As long as price does not eclipse the high of the head, traders should stay alert to whether a right shoulder begins to form.

That does not mean the market has topped. It means the leading sector is no longer giving a clean all-clear signal. In this tape, that matters more than the headline index move.

Yields Are The Macro Line In The Sand

The bond market remains a major part of the equity setup this week. The 10-year Treasury yield has been pulling back into the jobs data, which has helped support risk assets. Near-term support sits around 4.307%, with resistance near 4.425%.

The bigger level is 4.484%, a major trend line that traces back to the March 27 pivot. If yields move back above that area, equities could face pressure again, especially the growth and technology names that carry the most weight in the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

That is the transmission mechanism Drew is watching. Lower yields can support higher multiples. A renewed push higher in yields can quickly change the tone, especially if it arrives alongside a stronger-than-expected jobs report.

Gold Weakens While Silver Shows Relative Strength

Precious metals gave a mixed read.

Gold fell 1.78% and continues to consolidate beneath an inclining trend line it broke on June 24. That breakdown has not fully confirmed yet, which keeps a retest of trend line resistance near $4,279 possible. If the consolidation resolves lower, support sits near $3,886.

Silver looks different. Buyers have been defending the $56 area, with long lower wicks showing demand stepping in on dips. The daily RSI is also beginning to curl higher, which leaves room for a bounce toward the $64 area if buyers maintain control.

The risk is time. If silver chops sideways for another three to four sessions without pushing higher, the same structure could turn into a bearish consolidation, with $49.72 as the next major support.

Drew also highlighted $55.09 as the level he is watching for physical silver accumulation. The broader lesson is not to chase. It is to define the level ahead of time and wait for price to come to the plan.

Energy Shows Why Retests Matter

Oil remains sticky around key support and resistance zones. After pushing toward the $78 area, price pulled back and is now consolidating near a declining trend line that started from the July 1, 2024 pivot. If oil continues to move sideways without reclaiming momentum, the risk is a breakdown toward $62.33. If it bounces, $75.56 is the resistance area Drew is watching.

Natural gas offered the cleaner technical lesson. After confirming a breakdown from an inclining trend line on June 23, price rallied back into the underside of that broken trend line. It tested that area for two sessions, failed to reclaim it, then rolled over and dropped 3.54% today.

“That’s how technical analysis works. And guys, if you don’t know, now is your time to learn technical analysis.”

The setup showed why retests matter. A broken support line often becomes resistance. Natural gas now has downside references at $3.03 and then $2.90.

Individual Stocks: Strong Moves, But Patterns Still Need Triggers

Several individual names had important technical setups, but Drew’s framework stayed consistent: patterns matter only when they confirm.

Apple reacted to news tied to rising memory costs, with the fundamental catalyst helping trigger a pre-existing bear flag. Price broke below $281.55, then quickly reclaimed it and moved back toward prior all-time high pivot resistance. If $281.55 fails again, the next downside references are $273.09 and then the 50% parallel channel line near $267.

Spotify is building a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern, but it has not triggered yet. The neckline sits at $522. A daily close above that level would activate the pattern and point toward a measured move near $648.50. If price rolls over and loses the head of the structure, the setup is invalidated, with long-term trend line support near $375.06.

Roblox showed clear relative strength, rallying 14.26% and closing above a major declining trend line. The next confirmation level is the recent high at $55.35. A close above that would strengthen the breakout read, while the broken trend line near $52.82 becomes the key area to watch on any retest. Above that, resistance sits near $66.21 and then the $80 area.

Bitcoin Is Still Consolidating Below A Major Zone

Bitcoin remains in bearish consolidation below the $60,000 area, but the daily wicks show buyers are still defending that zone. If bulls regain control, $63,577 is the first resistance level to watch.

The larger weekly structure remains more cautious. Drew is still monitoring a major head and shoulders pattern that points below $40,000 if it fully plays out. His cycle work suggests the current pressure could resolve over the next two to three months, which would create a more important window to reassess Bitcoin from a higher-timeframe perspective.

SMR Shows Why Higher-Timeframe Candles Matter

On a viewer request, Drew also reviewed NuScale Power Corp. The weekly chart remains the key timeframe. In October 2025, SMR printed a large weekly topping tail that foreshadowed the decline below $10. Now the stock is trying to build a weekly bull flag inside the range of the April 13 candle.

The level that has to hold is $8.85. A break below that opens downside toward $4.78. If the bull flag resolves higher, the larger upside reference is the inclining trend line near $22.63.

Bottom Line

This is a week where price can float, but not every move deserves full trust.

The holiday-shortened schedule, major labor-market data, and thinner volume all create a market where breakouts can look cleaner than they really are. The S&P 500 and QQQ improved today, but SMH is showing the kind of leadership damage that makes confirmation more important. Yields remain the macro risk, metals are diverging, and energy continues to respect technical structure.

Drew’s operator takeaway was simple: do not confuse holiday-week drift with durable confirmation. Let the market reach the levels, watch how it reacts, and respect whether the leading sectors confirm or refuse to participate.