My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 10/29/2025: Fed Commentary, Mega Cap Risk and Big Tech Earnings to Drive Markets

The financial markets are holding their collective breath, standing at the precipice of what could be one of the most consequential days of the year. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, laid out a landscape packed with high-stakes events. From a near-certain Federal Reserve rate cut to a tidal wave of Big Tech earnings and a geopolitical summit on the horizon, the next 48 hours are poised to define the market's trajectory for weeks, if not months, to come.

Today, we'll delve deeper into the monumental forces at play, exploring the critical technical levels, the alarming internal market signals, and the specific trading setups that could emerge from the impending volatility.

The Fed Decision: It’s Not the Cut, It’s the Commentary

The main event today is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 2:00 PM EST, followed by Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference. While the market is pricing in a 99% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut, the cut itself is largely a foregone conclusion and unlikely to move the needle. The real market-moving potential lies in the nuance of Powell's language.

As Gareth explained, “I doubt they react that much to the actual cut. That's what we're expecting. It's all about how hawkish or dovish Jerome Powell is during his press conference.”

This is the central conflict the Fed must navigate. On one hand, economic data may justify the cut. On the other, the stock market is roaring at all-time highs, with valuations, particularly in the tech sector, reaching levels that defy traditional metrics. Will Powell acknowledge this froth and signal a more cautious, data-dependent path forward (hawkish)? Or will he downplay the asset bubble concerns and suggest that further cuts are on track for December and January (dovish)?

A hawkish tone could act as a bucket of cold water on a red-hot market, potentially triggering a pullback from key resistance levels. Conversely, a dovish stance could be interpreted as a green light, adding more fuel to the speculative fire and potentially causing a "blow-off top" scenario. Traders will be parsing every word for clues about the Fed's future intentions, making the 2:30 PM press conference the most critical 60 minutes of the trading day.

A Tale of Two Markets: Unprecedented Concentration and Alarming Internals

While the S&P 500 is hitting new all-time highs, a look under the hood reveals a deeply fractured and potentially unhealthy market. The rally has been driven by an astonishing concentration of wealth in a handful of mega-cap technology stocks. Nvidia is set to open at a staggering $5 trillion market capitalization, with Apple having recently crossed the $4 trillion mark. Together, these two companies alone account for $9 trillion in market value.

This concentration led to a historic and concerning statistic yesterday. Gareth highlighted a critical piece of data: “Yesterday market breadth… was the worst. I repeat the worst on an update that we have seen since 1990.”

To put that in perspective, while the S&P 500 index closed at a new high, 398 of its 500 constituent stocks were actually down on the day. This is a classic sign of a weak foundation. The entire index is being dragged higher by the sheer gravitational pull of a few behemoths like Nvidia, which gained 3% on its own. This is not a sign of a broad, healthy bull market; it’s the sign of a narrow, top-heavy rally that is highly vulnerable to a shift in sentiment in just a few key names. This divergence between the headline index and the health of the average stock is a major red flag that prudent investors cannot ignore.

The S&P 500 at a Generational Resistance Point

The timing of this week’s events could not be more critical from a technical perspective. The S&P 500 is currently testing a monumental confluence of resistance on its weekly chart. This isn't just a minor level; it's a zone defined by two powerful, long-term trendlines that have dictated major market turning points for years.

The first trendline is a parallel channel that originates from the COVID lows in 2020. Its lower bound connects the 2022 bear market bottom and subsequent major pullbacks. The upper bound of this channel, which perfectly tagged the 2021 bull market peak, is precisely where the market is trading right now.

The second trendline connects the lows from 2023 and 2024. The S&P 500 struggled at this line before its most recent pullback and is now piercing just above it. For the market to sustain its rally, it must prove it can hold above this critical intersection through the Fed decision, Big Tech earnings, and tomorrow's geopolitical news. A failure here, marked by a close back below this zone by the end of the week, could signal that this entire move has been a final push into exhaustion, setting the stage for a significant correction.

The Political “Put Option”

Adding another layer of intrigue to the market puzzle is the deliberate timing of tomorrow's meeting between President Trump and President Xi of China. Gareth pointed out that this scheduling is likely a calculated strategic move.

“It's not a coincidence. I repeat, this is not a coincidence that this meeting with President Xi was scheduled for the day after the Federal Reserve.”

Gareth’s analysis suggests this is a form of market insurance. President Trump cannot directly control the Federal Reserve, but he can control the timing and narrative of major announcements. By scheduling a high-stakes trade meeting the day after the Fed, the administration has created a potential backstop. If Powell's press conference is too hawkish and sends markets tumbling, positive headlines from the China meeting—a "great deal" or "tremendous progress"—could be deployed to reverse the negative sentiment and prop the market back up. This is, in essence, a political "put option" designed to protect the market from a Fed-induced downturn.

Navigating the Earnings Minefield

As if the macroeconomic and political backdrop weren't enough, today's after-hours session will be dominated by earnings from Google, Microsoft, and Meta. Furthermore, a host of other companies have already reported, creating a minefield of volatility and opportunity. Here are some of the key setups Gareth is watching:

• Fiserv (FI): The most dramatic mover, Fiserv is down nearly 40% pre-market after missing on earnings and lowering guidance. For a stock that was already trading at multi-year lows, this is a catastrophic drop. However, it’s pushing the stock directly into a major, long-term support zone between $69.00 USD and $74.00 USD. This area represents the pivot lows from the 2020 COVID crash. For Gareth, this makes Fiserv a top focus for a potential long trade, both as a day trade and potentially as a swing trade, given the historic nature of the support level.
• Enphase (ENPH): The solar company is taking a greater than 10% hit, trading down from $36.70 USD to around $32.40 USD. Gareth has identified a key day-tradeable level at the $30.00 USD even number, which also corresponds with a gap fill and a potential double bottom. He remains cautious on a swing trade, suggesting a move into the low $20s would be necessary for that.
• Caterpillar (CAT): Moving in the opposite direction, Caterpillar is gapping up significantly from $524 USD to over $554 USD. Gareth is eyeing a potential short trade if the stock can push higher into a parallel channel resistance level around $564.00 USD.
• Garmin (GRMN): Another stock getting trounced, Garmin is dropping from $248 USD to around $220 USD. Gareth identified a support zone for a potential day trade bounce between $211.00 USD and $214.50 USD, but stressed he would not consider it for a swing trade given how elevated the stock remains on a longer-term chart.

Bitcoin and Commodities: Awaiting Clarity

Away from the equity chaos, other asset classes are at their own inflection points, awaiting signals from the Fed.

• Bitcoin: After closing back above its major trendline, Bitcoin has failed to confirm the breakout for two consecutive days. As Gareth noted, a break below a line requires a reconfirmation above it to re-establish it as solid support. So far, that hasn't happened. This leaves Bitcoin in a neutral "question mark warning zone"—above the line is a positive, but the lack of confirmation is a negative.
• Gold & Natural Gas: Gold bounced off its first major probability-based support target but is now approaching resistance around the $4,100.00 USD level. Gareth's analysis still favors an eventual move lower to the 75% probability target at $3,845.00 USD. Meanwhile, Natural Gas is pulling back toward a key breakout area around $3.60 USD. A retrace to this "scene of the crime," which also contains a gap fill, could present a high-probability long entry.

Conclusion: A Moment of Truth

The next two days are not just another period of market activity; they represent a critical inflection point that will likely set the tone for the remainder of the year. We have a potent cocktail of a pivotal Fed decision, stratospheric tech valuations, alarming market internals, a generational technical resistance test, and high-stakes geopolitical maneuvering.

The market appears to be in the final stages of a "melt-up," a potential blow-off top driven by a handful of mega-cap names. Whether this rally has the fundamental strength to push through these massive headwinds or is about to collide with a wall of reality is the question that will soon be answered. For disciplined traders, this volatility creates immense opportunity, but only for those who respect the levels, understand the risks, and wait patiently for high-probability setups to emerge from the chaos.