My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 01/26/2026: Dollar Weakness and Metals Surge, Pressure Stocks Ahead of Fed and Tech Earnings

The markets have opened the week on a precarious footing, navigating a minefield of geopolitical headlines, looming Federal Reserve announcements, and a barrage of critical earnings reports. Following a volatile overnight session triggered by tariff threats against Canada, the major indices have managed to float back to the flatline. However, beneath this surface calm lies a complex web of technical breakdowns and macroeconomic warning signals. In this morning’s My Trading Game Plan show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, dissected the charts to reveal the true state of the global financial system and the specific setups traders must watch during this pivotal week.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq: Technical Damage Control

As we approach the Federal Reserve announcement on Wednesday and earnings from tech titans like Meta, Microsoft, and Apple, the technical posture of the broader markets suggests caution. The S&P 500 is currently trading below a critical long-term parallel trendline. This "big parallel" has historically marked every major pivot low and high in the recent cycle. Until the index can prove otherwise by breaking through this ceiling, this level acts as a formidable cap on upside potential.

More concerning for the immediate term is the breakdown of the ascending trendline that dates back to the April lows—often referred to as the "liberation tariff sell-off lows." This trendline has acted as reliable support, connecting multiple lows perfectly. The S&P 500 has now broken below this line. While this breakdown is currently unconfirmed, it shifts the market bias slightly to the negative.

The Nasdaq’s "Scene of the Crime"

The technical picture for the Nasdaq is even more precarious. Unlike the S&P 500, the Nasdaq has already confirmed its breakdown below its respective trendline. Currently, price action is exhibiting a classic technical behavior known as a "retrace to the scene of the crime."

In technical analysis, when a significant support level is broken, price often rallies back up to test that broken line from the underside. If it fails to reclaim the line, the breakdown is validated, often leading to a continuation of the sell-off. This setup is particularly significant given the concentration of mega-cap tech earnings this week. The fact that the Nasdaq is struggling beneath this trendline suggests that the market may be front-running potential disappointment or that even positive earnings may be sold into resistance.

The Macro Picture: De-Dollarization and Fiscal Consequences

While the daily fluctuations of the indices capture headlines, a far more significant shift is occurring in the currency and precious metals markets. The aggressive moves in gold and silver are not merely momentum trades; they represent a fundamental vote of no confidence in the U.S. financial state.

Gareth highlighted the growing trend of de-dollarization, a process that he describes as a snowball starting to roll down a mountain. Initially small, this momentum is picking up speed as other nations increasingly dump U.S. dollars and debt. This shift is visible in the currency markets, where the U.S. dollar has shown concerning weakness.

Currency Breakouts Signal Dollar Distress

The weakness in the dollar is mirrored by breakouts in major global currencies:

• The Euro: Has staged a classic breakout against the dollar, with technical patterns suggesting a continued upward trajectory.
• The Canadian Dollar: Despite tariff threats, the chart reveals an "amazing inverse head and shoulders pattern" with a neckline nearing a breakout to the upside.
• The British Pound: Has executed a major breakout, successfully retesting support and indicating that the path of least resistance is higher.

The only notable exception is the Yen, which remains weak due to Japan's massive debt-to-GDP ratio. However, the broader signal is clear: the U.S. dollar is losing its stranglehold as the world's reserve currency. This structural weakness, driven by unrestrained government spending, poses a severe long-term risk. As Gareth warned, if the markets eventually force fiscal austerity—similar to what occurred in Europe around 2013—the resulting economic contraction could make the Great Recession look like a minor event.

Precious Metals: Momentum Meets History

The price action in precious metals has been nothing short of historic, driven by the macro fears outlined above.

Silver’s Historic Run

Silver has entered a vertical momentum phase, breaking through the $110 per ounce level. To put this move in context, silver is on track to record nine consecutive months of gains—a streak never before seen in its history. When an asset goes vertical, traditional support and resistance levels often become less relevant as greed and momentum take over.

However, utilizing logarithmic charts connecting back to the 1974 highs, there is a potential trendline resistance sitting in the $112 to $113 range. While momentum trades can overshoot logical targets, this zone represents one of the few technical metrics available in such uncharted territory.

Gold’s Technical Ceiling

Gold, while also in a strong uptrend, offers a clearer technical picture. After trading up to approximately $5,100, gold has pulled back, placing it back below a key parallel resistance line. If gold closes the session near its lows, it would form a "topping tail"—a bearish reversal signal that often indicates a temporary top.

Despite the potential for a technical pullback, the long-term thesis for gold remains intact as an insurance policy against fiscal irresponsibility. However, traders looking at the miners should note that Newmont Mining is gapping up into significant resistance around the $128 to $130 level, and the gold miners ETF GDX is similarly hitting trendline resistance. These levels suggest that the sector may be due for a pause or retraction in the short term.

Earnings Week: Key Levels for Tech Giants

With trillions of dollars in market cap reporting earnings this week, the reaction of these stocks will dictate market direction. Gareth outlined specific "multi-factor" levels to watch.

Meta Platforms

Meta has recently bounced off a major trendline. As it heads into earnings on Wednesday, traders should watch two distinct scenarios:

• Upside: If the stock rallies on earnings, the major resistance target is the gap fill at $750. This level would likely act as a ceiling for the move.
• Downside: A break of the current trendline support would be technically significant, as this line has held through multiple tests.

Microsoft

Microsoft has also bounced off technical support leading into its report. However, the chart reveals a massive gap to the downside. In technical analysis, large gaps often act as magnets, drawing price action toward them until they are filled. Even if Microsoft experiences a post-earnings pop, the existence of this gap suggests that the medium-term trajectory may be lower until that structural inefficiency is resolved.

Tesla

Tesla continues to trade within a well-defined upward parallel channel. The stock recently tested the lower bounds of this channel and held.

• Resistance: The upside target sits above $500.
• Support: If the stock breaks down, the next major support zone lies between $365 and $375, with minor support potentially around $385.

Commodities and Crypto: Rotation and Rejection

Beyond equities and metals, distinct patterns are emerging in the energy and cryptocurrency markets that highlight the importance of capital rotation and technical discipline.

Oil vs. Natural Gas

While gold, silver, and natural gas have seen "insane" volatility, crude oil has remained slow and steady. This quiet strength is often a precursor to a move. Institutional money rarely leaves the market entirely; instead, it rotates from overextended assets into undervalued ones. Oil, having broken out and successfully retraced, appears poised to be the beneficiary of this rotation.

Conversely, natural gas has been driven by a short squeeze and winter storm hype. The chart shows a massive vertical move followed by a topping tail—a signal that the buying frenzy is exhausted. Gareth is looking to fade this move, anticipating that price will revert as the immediate catalysts fade.

Bitcoin’s Bear Flag

Bitcoin has reached a critical juncture. The cryptocurrency has broken below a parallel trendline that had been guiding its ascent. This breakdown could be the ignition point for a bear flag formation.

• Immediate Support: There is minor support at $80,600.
• Target Zone: If the bear flag plays out, the technical target for a decline is in the $70,000 range.

Unless Bitcoin can quickly recapture the broken trendline, the probabilities have flipped to the bearish side in the near term.

Conclusion: Discipline in the Face of Volatility

As we navigate a week filled with high-stakes events—from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision to earnings from the world’s largest companies—volatility is guaranteed. The "insanity" in the metals market and the fragility of the U.S. dollar serve as a backdrop to the technical setups on the charts.

The key for traders is to separate narrative from price action. While the macro warnings regarding the dollar and debt are dire, the charts provide the roadmap for navigating the immediate future. By focusing on confirmed breakdowns, gap fills, and parallel resistance levels, traders can identify high-probability setups regardless of the noise. As the "snowball" of economic change gathers speed, maintaining a disciplined, level-based approach is the only way to stay ahead of the avalanche.