My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 02/19/2026: Market in Economic Limbo, S&P 500 Head and Shoulders, Wayfair and Bitcoin Setups

The economic landscape remains in a state of flux, presenting a complex puzzle for traders and investors alike. With fresh data hitting the wires regarding jobless claims and manufacturing, the market finds itself in a precarious "limbo," caught between signs of economic resilience and underlying weakness. In this morning’s episode of My Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, dissected the latest numbers, the institutional selling pressure fading recent rallies, and the high-probability technical setups emerging in individual stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Economic Limbo: The Disconnect Between Data and Reality

The morning began with a mixed bag of economic data, reinforcing the narrative that the economy is neither fully accelerating nor collapsing, but rather grinding through a period of uncertainty. Jobless claims came in at 206,000, a decrease from the elevated 230,000 range seen in previous weeks. While a lower number typically signals strength, Gareth noted that we are "not really seeing a definitive change in character there."

Simultaneously, the Philly Fed manufacturing index delivered a surprise beat, coming in at 16.3 against a forecast of just 7.5. While positive on the surface, this data complicates the Federal Reserve's path regarding interest rates.

The backdrop to this data is the growing skepticism surrounding inflation metrics. Gareth highlighted concerns regarding last week's CPI data, which research suggests may have been an "incomplete number" due to data collection issues blamed on government shutdowns. This uncertainty is compounded by the recent Fed minutes, where board members expressed the need to potentially hike rates as inflation numbers creep higher rather than settling at the 2% target.

This macro environment is reflected in the 10-year Treasury yield, which is creeping back up, hitting resistance around 4.1%. The bond market is signaling caution, with a major level looming at 4.2%. As Gareth observed, the broader technical structure of yields—a massive move down followed by a choppy inside bar—often favors further downside, suggesting the bond market believes the economy is weaker than the general public assumes.

S&P 500: Institutional Selling and the Head and Shoulders Pattern

A critical observation from recent price action is the nature of market bounces. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have attempted rallies, but they frequently fade by the closing bell. This pattern—an early pop followed by a sell-off—is a hallmark of institutional distribution.

"When we get these bounce days, oftentimes it's an early bounce, and then the markets fade quite a bit the rest of the day… generally that's not mom and pops. That's not 401(k) investors. That's most likely institutional money."

Technically, the S&P 500 remains constrained by an upsloping white trend line that is limiting upside potential. More alarmingly for bulls, a bearish head and shoulders pattern is still intact. The critical line in the sand is the neckline support at 6,790.

Traders must understand the specific triggers for chart patterns. A head and shoulders formation is merely potential energy until the neckline is broken. As Gareth emphasized, "They only trigger when the neckline is broken… we need a daily close below 6,790 on the S&P." Should that level breach on a closing basis, the probability of a significant downside move would skyrocket.

Wayfair: The Art of Stacking Probabilities

One of the most educational segments of today's analysis focused on Wayfair ($W), which has tumbled from approximately $92 to the $79-$80 range. This setup provided a perfect masterclass in distinguishing between day trades and swing trades, and the importance of "stacking" technical factors.

For active intraday traders, Gareth identified a potential bounce level at the pivot lows around $72 to $73. However, for a swing trade—a position held for days or weeks—the criteria are much stricter.

To identify a high-probability swing entry, Gareth utilized the Fibonacci retracement tool, drawing from the low to the recent 52-week high. This revealed a 61.8% retracement level lower down. However, a single factor is rarely enough to justify a swing position.

"I can't just trade based on one factor. I don't care what factor it is… I need multiple factors because the more factors you stack, the probability of success goes up."

By extending the analysis to the left of the chart, he identified pivot highs that align perfectly with the Fibonacci level. This confluence creates a robust support zone around $58-$59. This is the discipline required for long-term survival in the markets: waiting for the price to come to a level where multiple technical arguments align to produce a 70-80% probability of success.

Carvana and Lemonade: Navigating Volatility and Hidden Gaps

Earnings season continues to provide volatility, creating opportunities for disciplined traders. Carvana ($CVNA) has been on a "wild ride," dropping from $363 to $271 on earnings before staging a massive recovery.

Despite the recovery, the chart suggests resistance overhead. Gareth pinpointed a zone between $358 and $364 as significant resistance. If the stock pushes into this area, it presents a potential short opportunity, but strictly as a day trade due to the stock's explosive nature.

In the case of Lemonade ($LMND), the analysis revealed a technical nuance often missed by amateur traders: the "hidden" gap fill. The stock, trading up around $74, has a gap fill target at $82.60.

Many traders look for gaps only where the candle bodies do not touch. However, a true gap exists between the closing price of one session and the opening price of the next. "An official gap fill isn't where the body touches the body. It's where the close was one day to the open the next day." This level at $82.60, combined with a nearby 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, creates a specific zone for traders to monitor.

Bitcoin: The Contrarian Bull Case

Bitcoin continues to consolidate, holding a long bias as long as it maintains key structural levels. The bullish inside bar pattern remains in play, with a breakout trigger above the trend line currently sitting at $70,000. A confirmed move above this level could open the door to a rally toward $80,000 to $85,000.

Conversely, the downside risk is defined by a daily close below $60,000, which would invalidate the current pattern.

Interestingly, sentiment analysis provides a potential contrarian catalyst. Gareth noted reports of massive open interest on Bitcoin put options at the $40,000 strike. This indicates a crowded bearish trade, with many market participants betting on a collapse.

"In my mind, I think contrarian… if everyone's betting in that direction, maybe it gets a relief rally, which lures back some bulls."

Furthermore, the political landscape could offer a surprise catalyst. With government bills currently stalled, any sudden agreement or announcement from the administration could spark a rapid 10% bounce, punishing late shorts.

Conclusion: Patience and Precision

As the market waits for the PCE data tomorrow morning—a metric heavily watched by big money—traders must exercise patience. The difference between a losing trader and a profitable one often comes down to the ability to sit on the sidelines until a specific level is hit.

Whether it is waiting for the S&P 500 to close below 67.90 to confirm a bearish breakdown, or waiting for Wayfair to drop to $58 for a high-probability swing entry, the "game plan" relies on logic and charts rather than hype.

By focusing on multi-factor technical levels and understanding the nuances of institutional behavior, investors can navigate the current economic limbo with confidence. As Gareth reminded viewers, the goal isn't to predict where the market will be in five years, but to identify where the probabilities are heavily skewed in your favor right now.