My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 03/04/2026: S&P 500 Holds 6,790 Support, Bitcoin Breakout, Gold & Silver Bear Flags

The markets have demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of geopolitical tension and economic data releases. Following a test of major support yesterday, equities are floating higher, buoyed by stabilizing oil prices and a labor market that appears to be bending but not breaking. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, dissected the critical technical levels holding the S&P 500 together and offered a masterclass on the psychology of probability-based trading.

The S&P 500: The Mechanics of a Support Hold

The most significant technical development over the last 24 hours was the S&P 500's interaction with the critical support level at 6,790. Yesterday, the index dipped below this trendline, creating a moment of panic for retail traders. However, the subsequent recovery and close above the line illustrates a vital principle of technical analysis: the importance of the daily close.

As Gareth noted during the broadcast: "Just because you're below doesn't mean it's a breakdown. You got to close below. And in theory, you really want to confirm. But closing below is step one of a real breakdown."

This distinction between an intraday pierce and a daily close is what separates novice reactions from professional positioning. The 6,790 level has now established itself as a "line in the sand." The market's ability to hammer out a low and push back toward yesterday's highs suggests a potential move back toward 6,900 on the futures.

However, this resilience creates a double-edged sword. When a support level holds repeatedly, it invites more investors to go long at that specific price point. These investors typically place their stop-loss orders just below the support line. Consequently, if 6,790 is eventually breached on a closing basis, the cascade of triggered sell orders could result in a violent move to the downside. This accumulation of liquidity below support is why breakdowns, when they finally occur, are often sharp and aggressive.

Geopolitics and Market Stimulus: A Historical Paradox

A key driver of today's positive sentiment is the pullback in oil prices, triggered by the U.S. commitment to ensure the safety of shipping lanes in the Straits of Hormuz. This geopolitical intervention lowers future inflation expectations, providing relief to risk assets.

However, Gareth provided a fascinating counter-narrative regarding war and market performance. While intuitive logic suggests that conflict should be bearish for stocks, historical data often proves the opposite in the short term.

"Historically, believe it or not, when you look at wars, they generally don't cause the markets to go down. They actually cause the markets in the near term to go up. The reason being is wars are stimulative."

Government spending on defense—munitions, aircraft, and logistics—acts as a massive injection of capital into the industrial economy. While Gareth warned that this stimulus might not be enough to offset a potential slowdown in AI capital expenditures (which he views as a long-term risk), it explains the market's current ability to shrug off conflict headlines.

This backdrop was supported by the ADP private sector data, which showed 63,000 jobs created. While not a blockbuster number, it came in slightly better than expectations, signaling that the labor market remains stable enough to keep investors engaged without triggering immediate recessionary alarms.

The Probability Mindset: Trading as the Casino

One of the most valuable lessons from today's session was the dissection of a successful short trade on the U.S. Dollar (DXY). Gareth had previously identified the 99.60 level as a high-probability resistance point based on an upper parallel trendline. The dollar subsequently pulled back to 98.80, hitting a low of 98.70.

This trade exemplifies the core philosophy of Verified Investing: acting as the casino rather than the gambler. The casino does not know the outcome of any single hand of blackjack, but they know that over 1,000 hands, the mathematical edge ensures their profitability.

"I didn't know I was going to be right for sure. There was no 100%, but it's probability, my friends. It is all about probability. And right there, probability dictated, that would be the resistance point."

For traders, this means waiting for setups where the technical factors—time, price, pattern, and psychology—align to offer a 70% to 80% success rate. Taking trades with lower probabilities is akin to gambling. By strictly adhering to this threshold, traders can weather losses (the 20-30% failure rate) because the mathematics of their edge will compound gains over the long term. This disciplined approach is the antidote to the emotional "fear and greed" cycle that institutions use to manipulate retail capital.

Precious Metals: The Bear Flag Threat

While equities are holding support, the precious metals complex is showing signs of technical deterioration. Gold experienced a breakdown yesterday and, despite a small bounce today, remains in a precarious position. The key for gold bulls is the merging trendlines that now act as resistance. As long as price action remains below this zone, the setup favors further downside.

Silver's chart is even more concerning following a near 10% sell-off yesterday. The current price action is forming a classic bearish flag pattern—a consolidation period that typically precedes a continuation of the downward trend.

"That's a bearish flag pattern consolidation. That tells me that in the next, let's say, month or so… eventually, this pattern, if it doesn't break out above here, this eventually takes a toll to the downside."

This technical structure suggests that the metals market is trapped in a "choppy, sideways, price-action-driven market." For traders, the discipline lies in not trying to catch a falling knife but waiting for the pattern to resolve or for price to reach a high-probability support zone before initiating a long position.

Bitcoin: Bullish Consolidation and Institutional Games

In contrast to precious metals, Bitcoin is exhibiting a bullish consolidation pattern that has been developing over the last month. The technicals here suggest a high probability of a breakout to the upside.

This setup provides a perfect case study in institutional accumulation. Institutions often utilize periods of fear to accumulate assets and periods of greed to distribute them. The current consolidation in Bitcoin, occurring while the broader narrative is mixed, suggests that "smart money" may be positioning for the next leg up.

Gareth confirmed he has taken a position in Bitcoin based on this 70-80% probability setup. However, he reiterated that even with a bullish pattern, there are no guarantees. The "game plan" always involves knowing where the thesis is negated. If the pattern fails, the disciplined trader exits without emotion, understanding that the loss is simply the cost of doing business in a probability-based environment.

Tech Giants and Earnings Volatility

As we navigate earnings season, the technical setups of major technology companies offer diverse opportunities.

Microsoft: The Long-Term Trend

Microsoft remains a core holding in the "Smart Money Stocks and ETFs" portfolio, with an entry from $388. The stock is currently respecting a long-term trendline, maintaining a bullish posture unless it confirms a close below that level. Gareth sees potential upside targets at $420, potentially extending to $425.

The strategy here highlights the importance of "invalidation levels." A trader must know the exact price point where their bullish thesis is proven wrong before entering the trade. For Microsoft, a confirmed breakdown below the trendline would trigger a stop-loss, protecting capital for the next opportunity.

Broadcom: Earnings Roulette

Broadcom (AVGO) is set to report earnings after the bell today. As a trillion-dollar semiconductor giant, its results will have ripple effects across the sector. The stock is currently sitting at a support level around $306.

While support usually favors a bounce, the recent price action in Nvidia serves as a cautionary tale. Despite stellar earnings and guidance, Nvidia saw institutional distribution (selling) following its report. This divergence between fundamental results and price action is a hallmark of institutional maneuvering.

"It's really hard to know here because there's different market dynamics. In my opinion, what we're seeing is institutional money continue to unload."

Because of this uncertainty, the disciplined approach is to remain on the sidelines through the earnings release. If Broadcom dumps massively, it may present a day-trading opportunity. If it rallies sharply into resistance, a short setup may emerge. The key is to let the trade come to you rather than gambling on the binary outcome of an earnings report.

Natural Gas: The Discipline of Taking Profits

Finally, the recent trade in Natural Gas perfectly illustrates the value of executing a game plan. After achieving a 13% gain, profits were taken as the commodity hit resistance. Today, Natural Gas is pulling back, validating the decision to sell into strength.

The plan now shifts to patience. Rather than chasing the pullback immediately, the strategy is to wait for a "lower low" to flush out remaining weak hands. The target for re-entry is identified at approximately $2.70. This level would provide the necessary risk-reward ratio to justify a new starter position.

Conclusion: Logic as a Lighthouse

In a financial landscape saturated with hype, fear-mongering headlines, and social media noise, the need for a logic-based approach has never been greater. Today's market action—from the S&P's defense of 6,790 to the calculated pullback in the Dollar—demonstrates that charts often tell the story before the news does.

By focusing on verified technical factors and viewing the market through the lens of probability, investors can insulate themselves from emotional decision-making. Whether it is waiting for a bear flag to resolve in Silver or trusting the historical stimulus of geopolitical conflict, the "Trading Game Plan" remains the same: ignore the noise, follow the math, and trade the charts.