My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 03/12/2026: Private Credit Crisis Threatens Banks, S&P Rounded Top, Oil Rally

The global markets are currently navigating a treacherous intersection of geopolitical conflict and hidden systemic financial risks. With Iranian strikes on oil tankers in the Gulf region dominating mainstream headlines and sending the S&P 500 futures down over 0.5% in the pre-market, retail investors are understandably focused on the immediate shockwaves. However, beneath the surface of these highly publicized events lies a potentially more devastating threat to the financial system. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, peeled back the curtain on the macro environment, revealing critical technical levels and exposing a brewing crisis in the banking sector that savvy traders must monitor.

The Private Credit Black Swan: A Brewing Contagion

While the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is commanding the market's immediate attention, a far more insidious threat is developing in the shadows of the financial sector. Gareth highlighted a developing situation that has all the hallmarks of a systemic shock:

"Little talked about, but something that I think is actually a bigger deal is this potential black swan event of private credit. We are hearing more and more about various funds limiting withdrawals, telling their clients that, no, you can't have your money back."

When investment funds begin gating withdrawals, it is historically a massive red flag. It signals a severe liquidity mismatch—where the underlying assets cannot be sold fast enough, or at high enough valuations, to meet investor redemption requests. This scenario is eerily reminiscent of the early warning signs that preceded previous financial crises.

The contagion is already showing up in major banking institutions. Deutsche Bank has admitted to having $30 billion in exposure to this private credit fiasco. The market's reaction has been swift and punishing, with Deutsche Bank's stock dropping sharply from its previous close around $31.50 down to trading around $29.50.

For traders, this volatility creates specific, actionable levels. Instead of panic selling or blindly buying the dip, Gareth outlined a disciplined technical approach to Deutsche Bank. The first level of interest for a potential day trade sits at the gap fill of $27.85. However, for a more robust swing trade setup, traders should exercise patience and look toward the $25.25 level.

This weakness is not isolated. HSBC is cratering in the pre-market, and domestic giants are also showing technical fractures. JPMorgan (JPM) has officially broken a major trend line. While it has found short-term support at a recent low pivot, the technical structure suggests that after a brief bounce—a return to the "scene of the crime"—more downside is likely. Even American Express, traditionally viewed as a bulletproof safe haven in the financial sector, has plummeted 25% since the beginning of January. If the private credit crisis spills over into high-income consumer defaults, the banking sector could face a prolonged winter.

The S&P 500: Institutional Distribution and the Rounded Top

The broader market is reflecting this underlying systemic stress. The S&P 500 remains trapped inside a larger parallel channel that has dictated a neutral to negative bias since the start of the year. But the most concerning development on the chart is the formation of a massive technical pattern.

"…my fear again is that we're in the process of a rounded top right here, which is distribution by institutional money, and now we've potentially started a bigger breakdown below this trend line."

A rounded top is one of the most significant reversal patterns in technical analysis. Unlike a sharp "V-top" driven by sudden panic or euphoria, a rounded top represents a slow, deliberate transfer of risk. It is the visual footprint of institutional "smart money" quietly distributing their shares to unsuspecting retail buyers over an extended period.

The index has now broken below a critical trend line connecting multiple low pivots. If the market fails to reclaim this level and takes out Monday's recent low, it opens the trapdoor for a cascading decline. The next major downside target for the S&P 500 sits at 6,550, a level derived from historical pivot points that will serve as the next major battleground between bulls and bears.

Oil's Inflationary Grip and the Yield Curve

The Iranian strikes in the Gulf have acted as an immediate catalyst for energy markets, pushing WTI crude oil to $93 on the 10-minute chart. However, this move was entirely predictable for traders following the technical roadmap.

Previously, oil experienced a textbook pullback to the $80 to $75 zone—a level perfectly aligned with major historical pivots. Since hitting that buy zone, oil has entered a phase of consolidation, characterized by sideways-to-upward chop. The technical trajectory suggests oil is likely heading back to $100 per barrel before the next major macro shift occurs.

"Eventually, within a few months, I see oil back to about $68 a barrel."

While a drop to $68 sounds like a relief for the consumer, the underlying reason for that eventual decline is troubling: demand destruction. The sustained high price of oil is acting as a massive tax on the consumer. Currently, only the wealthiest demographics are sustaining their spending habits, while the broader middle and lower classes are pulling back dramatically.

This energy spike has profound implications for inflation and interest rates. Oil is a foundational input cost for almost everything in the global economy—from transportation to the manufacturing of plastics and electronics. As oil pushes higher, inflation expectations rise with it. This is perfectly reflected in the bond market, where the 10-year yield has spiked dramatically over the last couple of weeks, signaling that the Federal Reserve is becoming increasingly unlikely to cut rates.

Furthermore, the 30-year yield is spiking for a different, equally concerning reason: war debt. The conflict is triggering massive new debt issuance by the US government to cover military costs. Bond buyers are demanding higher interest rates to absorb this flood of new supply, creating a dangerous feedback loop for the broader economy.

The Safe Haven Race: Dollar, Gold, and Bitcoin

In times of systemic stress, capital desperately searches for a safe haven. The US Dollar has traditionally played this role, and we are seeing it act as the "least bad place to go" right now. The Dollar is currently in a sideways-to-up consolidation parallel. However, it is stalling out at a critical resistance zone created by the confluence of a horizontal high and an up-sloping parallel line. Traders must watch this closely: if the Dollar forms a confirmed bullish pattern and breaks through this resistance, it will put immense pressure on equities and commodities alike.

Gold, the historical ultimate safe haven, is presenting a complex technical picture. Short-term, the chart is undeniably bearish. After breaking down from an inside consolidation period, gold is currently forming a bear flag—a continuation pattern that suggests another leg lower is imminent. However, the mid-to-long-term outlook remains highly bullish, especially given the rapid expansion of US debt and rising yields.

Silver is echoing this short-term bearishness. The metal remains trapped between heavy resistance at $93 to $91 and technical support down at $70 to $71. As long as the current bearish pattern holds, a flush down to the $70 to $71 support zone is the highest probability outcome. Yet, for patient long-term investors, the macro setup suggests silver could eventually return to the $50 range by late 2026.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is showing fascinating relative strength but remains at a critical technical juncture.

"You need a daily close above $72,000. We get a daily close above $72,000. It should trigger a new wave of buyers to come in."

Bitcoin has repeatedly poked its head above a key down-sloping trend line but has failed to confirm the breakout. In technical analysis, a breakout is only as good as its confirmation. A daily close above $72,000 is the line in the sand. If Bitcoin can achieve this, it invalidates the "fake-out" scenario and opens the door for a rapid move toward the $80,000 to $85,000 target range. Until that daily close happens, disciplined traders must wait.

Retail Weakness and Strategic Trade Setups

The macroeconomic pressure on the consumer is showing up vividly in corporate earnings, particularly in the retail sector. Dollar General, historically a beneficiary of consumers "trading down" during tough economic times, reported decent earnings but saw its stock fall sharply.

When a discount retailer like Dollar General struggles, it is a glaring indicator of the health of the lower-income consumer. If people who were previously shopping at Walmart are now forced to trade down to dollar stores, and even those stores are failing to impress Wall Street, it signals deep economic exhaustion. For traders looking at Dollar General, the first minor day-trade support sits at $132.75. However, the much higher probability swing-trade levels are located significantly lower, at the gap fill of $109.67, with secondary support at $107.

Despite the overarching bearish macro environment, a professional trader's job is to trade the chart in front of them, regardless of the broader narrative. This objective approach yielded two distinct setups discussed in today's session:

IonQ (IONQ): The Gap Fill Long While the broader market looks heavy, IonQ—a supercomputer stock—presented a textbook long setup. The stock gapped up massively on a great earnings report two weeks ago. Since then, it has slowly bled out, eventually falling back to completely fill that earnings gap. By tagging the exact price it traded at before the bullish news was released, it offered a high-probability entry point. This is a classic "buy the gap fill" strategy, relying purely on technical structure rather than emotion.

Valero (VLO): The Trend Line Short Conversely, Valero presented a compelling short setup. With oil prices grinding higher, energy stocks have caught a bid. However, Valero pushed up into a major, multi-point trend line resistance while becoming short-term overbought. By shorting at this precise technical intersection, traders can define their risk tightly against the trend line, capitalizing on the probability of a rejection.

The Psychology of Chart Reading: Logic Over Narrative

Perhaps the most crucial takeaway from today's analysis is the philosophical approach required to survive and thrive in these volatile markets. With wars raging, private credit markets freezing, and inflation fears resurging, it is incredibly easy for investors to become paralyzed by fear or whipped around by emotional headlines.

Gareth summarized the Verified Investing ethos perfectly:

"The chart is the only thing I care about. That's it, the chart. Everything else is noise to me. Headlines create emotional responses. Social media creates extreme emotional responses because half of it's BS on there, right? So all of that is noise."

Retail traders consistently lose money because they trade narratives. They hear about a war and blindly buy oil at the top. They read about a banking crisis and panic sell their entire portfolio at support. Professional traders, however, operate entirely in the realm of probabilities. They understand that charts have no motives, no political biases, and no fear.

When you strip away the noise and focus exclusively on price action, pivot points, gap fills, and trend lines, you transform trading from a game of guessing into a business of mathematics. You don't need to predict exactly how the private credit crisis will unfold; you simply need to know that Deutsche Bank has a high-probability bounce level at $25.25. You don't need to know the exact outcome of the Middle East conflict; you just need to know that oil has a technical magnet at $100 before a likely reversal to $68.

Conclusion: Discipline in the Face of Chaos

As we head deeper into a market environment characterized by institutional distribution, rising yields, and hidden banking risks, the requirement for strict trading discipline has never been higher. The S&P 500's rounded top and break of trend line support suggest that the easy money of the bull market is behind us.

However, as demonstrated by the setups in IonQ and Valero, volatility breeds opportunity for those who know where to look. By waiting for confirmation—like Bitcoin's elusive $72,000 daily close—and refusing to chase assets into resistance, traders can protect their capital while positioning for high-probability moves.

The coming weeks will likely test the resolve of the broader market as the realities of the private credit crisis and sustained energy inflation come to light. By maintaining emotional detachment, trusting the technical levels, and ignoring the social media noise, investors can navigate this chaos with clarity and precision.