SPY Confirmed. Tech Still Has Something to Prove.

Thursday produced plenty of upside movement, but the more useful read came from separating the charts that actually cleared resistance from the ones that merely arrived at it.

SPY finally confirmed its breakout above prior all-time highs after spending seven sessions working through that area. QQQ and the semiconductor ETF SMH are not there yet. Both are pressing important resistance, but neither has produced the same degree of follow-through.

That hierarchy matters more than the size of Thursday's move. The macro backdrop helped create volatility, but price still had to deal with the levels already sitting on the chart. The late-day software surge made that point particularly well: a buyout report sent the group sharply higher, yet Atlassian ran directly into long-term resistance and immediately gave back a large portion of the move.

The catalyst changed. The levels did not.

SPY Finally Earned Its Breakout

SPY spent much of the past week doing what often frustrates traders most after a breakout: almost nothing.

Price had moved above its prior all-time highs, but instead of immediately accelerating, it consolidated around the breakout area for seven daily candles. Thursday finally produced the follow-through Drew Dosek had been waiting for.

That shifts the technical read. The former breakout area near $760 now becomes an important support reference on future pullbacks rather than resistance that still needs to be cleared.

The intraday chart reinforced the same idea.

Recent sessions had repeatedly followed a gap-up-and-sell pattern. Thursday broke that sequence. Buyers stepped in after the opening gap and pushed the market higher before price eventually retraced toward the lower end of the day's range.

That pullback reached an inclining trend line Drew had been carrying forward from February 2025 and reacted directly from it.

The age of the line is precisely what made the reaction useful. Traders sometimes discard older trend lines because they appear disconnected from current price action. Thursday showed why Drew continues extending them. A line established more than a year ago became relevant again once price returned to it.

The point is not that old trend lines always work. It is that market structure can remain relevant far longer than the catalyst that originally created it.

QQQ and Semiconductors Have Not Confirmed Yet

SPY may have completed the breakout sequence, but technology remains one step behind.

QQQ closed just above a declining trend line Thursday, putting the index on breakout watch. One close over resistance, however, does not provide the same evidence as price clearing the level and beginning to establish separation from it.

Drew's focus now is follow-through.

If QQQ can remain above the declining trend line and begin pushing away from it, the previous all-time high pivot near $748.65 becomes the next technical area in focus. If price falls back beneath the line instead, Thursday's move starts looking more like another resistance test than a durable breakout.

SMH presents an even more important confirmation test because semiconductors have historically carried substantial weight within the broader technology trade.

The ETF spent much of Thursday above its declining trend line before fading somewhat later in the session. It is also dealing with its 50-day simple moving average near $592.49.

That gives the semiconductor chart two separate hurdles.

A sustained move above both the trend line and the 50-day moving average would strengthen the bullish technology read. Continued rejection would leave a meaningful gap between SPY's confirmed breakout and the still-unresolved structure underneath the semiconductor group.

Right now, SPY has confirmation. Tech is trying to earn it.

The Software Surge Showed Why Location Still Matters

The cleanest lesson of Thursday's session may have arrived at roughly 2:30 p.m. ET.

According to the material discussed on the show, reports that Silver Lake was in talks involving Workday triggered a sharp move in WDAY and an immediate sympathy bid across other software stocks, including Atlassian, ServiceNow and Adobe.

The interesting part was not simply that software rallied.

It was where some of those rallies stopped.

Atlassian surged with the group and ran directly toward a declining trend line connecting major pivots from December 2024 and May 2025. Price reached just under $225 before reversing sharply and falling back toward $206.

The move is a useful example of how catalysts and technical structure interact.

The headline created urgency. It changed the short-term order flow and forced rapid repricing across the sector. But when that repricing carried TEAM into a level where sellers had previously controlled the chart, price still reacted.

That keeps the area near $225 as important resistance.

If TEAM eventually establishes itself above that line, Drew has $235.97 as the next technical area on the chart, corresponding with a prior breakdown zone that has not yet been fully retraced. Until then, the late-day spike is better viewed as a resistance test than a completed breakout.

Extension Creates a Different Problem in NET and JPM

Thursday also offered the inverse setup.

Some charts are not struggling to break resistance after a long consolidation. They have already traveled a significant distance and are now reaching the upper edge of their existing structure.

Cloudflare is one of them.

NET has rallied more than 100% from its April lows and is now pressing the upper boundary of an inclining parallel channel near $352. Drew also described the stock as overbought across both the daily and weekly timeframes.

That does not mean the broader trend has failed. It changes the location.

A stock sitting near the top of a mature channel after a large advance presents a very different setup from one breaking out of a base. The technical evidence raises the probability that sellers or profit-taking begin to matter more near the channel ceiling.

Drew is watching the recent August 7 pivot area as a potential support zone if NET begins to retrace.

JPMorgan carries a similar structure on the weekly chart.

JPM has traded within an inclining parallel channel dating back to October 2023 and is now pressing the upper boundary while extended on the longer-term timeframe.

That puts the prior all-time high near $337.14 back in focus if the stock cools from current levels, followed by deeper channel-related support near $322.

The larger lesson is the same one showing up across Thursday's tape: direction alone is not enough. Location determines whether a move is beginning, confirming or becoming extended.

Yields and Metals Are Not Sending the Same Message

The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to roughly 4.649% in Drew's review but remained within a tight consolidation beneath resistance.

The interesting part was what precious metals did with that decline.

Gold and silver initially pushed higher before fading later in the session. Rather than accelerating as yields pulled back, both metals spent Thursday consolidating after recent upside moves.

Gold is holding above former resistance while Drew watches the next major level near $45.75 on the instrument shown during the episode.

Silver is dealing with a more visible supply zone.

Repeated upper wicks have formed when price pushes beyond roughly $66.30, suggesting sellers continue to respond there. Continued consolidation could give buyers more time to work through that supply, while a failure to hold the developing base would weaken the near-term breakout structure.

If silver eventually clears the area with confirmation, Drew has $67.99 as the next resistance level.

The key point is not that lower yields automatically mean higher metals. Thursday showed why the chart reaction still has to confirm the intermarket thesis.

Oil Is Compressing, Bitcoin Is Losing Time

Crude oil remains in compression beneath a declining trend line.

Thursday's high came close to the resistance line without producing a clean test or breakout, leaving the structure unresolved. Drew's broader read is that oil continues to coil, with the eventual break of the compression likely to provide more information than the swings taking place inside it.

On the downside, he is watching support around $78.48, $78.20 and $74.38.

Bitcoin has a more urgent technical problem.

The cryptocurrency is trying to remain above an inclining trend line while also drifting away from the neckline associated with a potential inverse head and shoulders structure.

That leaves Bitcoin in a weaker position than a chart already pressing through its trigger.

For the bullish pattern to become more compelling, price needs to reclaim the neckline and begin establishing itself above it. If that happens, the $72,000 to $74,000 region becomes a potential technical objective from Drew's framework.

Continued failure to reclaim the structure would keep breakdown risk elevated.

Bitcoin does not need another narrative right now. It needs the chart to improve.

AMAT Brings the Same Framework Into Earnings

Applied Materials was one of the remaining earnings names Drew highlighted after the close.

Before the report, AMAT had been drifting toward the lower boundary of a parallel channel that had already produced two prior reactions. Drew identified the channel floor near $464.80 as the more important swing level if weakness continues.

In after-hours trading discussed during the show, shares moved toward the psychological $500 area.

That creates two different levels of information. The round number can produce a short-term reaction, but the larger channel boundary carries more weight for the broader technical structure.

Friday's price action should show whether buyers can stabilize the stock closer to $500 or whether the earnings move begins carrying AMAT toward the lower channel support Drew has been tracking.

The Charts Are Separating Confirmation From Excitement

Thursday was not important simply because stocks rallied.

It was useful because different charts reached very different stages of their technical structures at the same time.

SPY finally produced confirmation above its previous highs. QQQ and SMH are testing whether they can follow. TEAM demonstrated how quickly a news-driven surge can stall when it reaches established resistance. NET and JPM show the opposite problem, where strong trends have already carried price toward the upper edge of their structures.

That is the hierarchy going into the next session.

A catalyst can accelerate price toward a level. It can even force price through one temporarily. What matters next is whether the market can hold the break, build separation and turn former resistance into support.

SPY has done that work.

Several of the charts underneath it have not.