S&P 500 Holds Near Record Highs as Treasury Yields Flash a Reversal Signal: Gareth Soloway's Trading Game Plan

October 8, 2026 | Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist, VerifiedInvesting.com

The market has plenty of reasons to sell off. Oil prices are rising on renewed geopolitical tensions, Treasury yields remain elevated, and earnings season is exposing just how aggressively Wall Street has priced in corporate growth. Yet the S&P 500 continues to trade within striking distance of its all-time highs. That resilience was a central focus of Gareth Soloway's October 8 My Trading Game Plan, where the charts are telling a more constructive story than the headlines might suggest.

The more significant development may be taking place in the bond market. A sharp reversal in the 10-year Treasury yield is raising the possibility that yields have reached a near-term peak, potentially easing one of the biggest pressures facing equities. Meanwhile, crude oil, precious metals, natural gas, Bitcoin, and individual stocks are approaching technical levels that could define their next moves. The common thread across these markets is straightforward: headlines create volatility, but price action determines whether a setup is worth trading.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Bullish Structure Holds Near All-Time Highs

The S&P 500 continues to demonstrate strength despite a difficult macroeconomic backdrop. Overnight, rising crude oil prices helped push Treasury yields higher, a combination that would normally weigh on equities. Instead, S&P 500 futures recovered above the prior session's lows, reinforcing the idea that buyers remain willing to step in when prices pull back. That response carries more weight when viewed against the broader chart.

Just two sessions ago, the S&P 500 established a new all-time high. The index is now trading approximately 0.5% to 1% below that level, a relatively shallow retreat considering the surrounding uncertainty. Markets that remain near their highs despite unfavorable news are demonstrating underlying demand. This does not guarantee another breakout, but it makes an immediate bearish reversal harder to justify without additional technical evidence.

Gareth highlighted a developing structure that could initially resemble a double top but may ultimately resolve into a bullish cup and handle formation. The distinction comes down to what happens after the second test of resistance. A shallow pullback followed by another push higher would strengthen the bullish interpretation, while a breakdown through the developing support structure would change the outlook. Rather than labeling the pattern prematurely, the better approach is to let price confirm which formation is actually developing.

This is the classic market behavior known as climbing a wall of worry. Conflict involving Iran, political uncertainty ahead of the midterm elections, instability in France, and elevated bond yields all provide reasons for investors to question the rally. Yet those concerns have not produced a sustained breakdown in the S&P 500. Gareth's framework remains constructive while the technical structure holds. The important signal is not how many bearish headlines exist, but whether sellers can finally force the market below support.

10-Year Treasury Yield Reversal: Daily Topping Tail Signals a Potential Peak

While equities remain resilient, the 10-year Treasury yield may be providing the more consequential technical signal. Yesterday, the yield briefly surged to 5.365%, exceeding previous short-term highs near 5.35% and 5.36%. That breakout failed to hold, with yields reversing sharply and finishing the session at 5.286%. The resulting daily candle formed a pronounced topping tail, suggesting that buyers of yield were unable to maintain control at elevated levels.

A topping tail develops when price pushes significantly higher during a session but closes near the lower portion of its trading range. In this case, the rejection occurred near a multidecade extreme, making the signal particularly noteworthy. The initial breakout attracted momentum, but the reversal showed that the market was unwilling to sustain those higher yields. That does not establish a permanent top, but it creates a meaningful warning for traders positioned for continued upside.

The weekly chart now becomes the next confirmation point. Gareth identified the 5.26% to 5.27% area as an important level to watch heading into the end of the week. Additional downside into that zone could produce a weekly topping tail alongside the existing daily reversal. When bearish reversal signals align across multiple timeframes, the technical case for a more sustained pullback becomes stronger. Gareth characterized that combination as a particularly powerful signal, estimating that the odds of additional downside could exceed 80% if the weekly formation confirms.

The fundamental backdrop also helps explain the reversal. Strong demand at a roughly \$30 billion Treasury auction supported bond prices, which move inversely to yields. Federal Reserve minutes also reinforced a more patient policy outlook, with the market interpreting the discussion as reducing the likelihood of an October rate hike and shifting attention toward December. Upcoming PCE and CPI inflation readings remain important, but the chart has already registered a rejection of higher yields. For equities, confirmation of that reversal could remove a significant source of pressure, particularly if the S&P 500 continues holding near its highs.

Crude Oil Price Outlook: \$88.75 Support Determines the Next Major Move

Crude oil is once again reacting to geopolitical developments, climbing approximately 3.67% and moving back into the low \$90s. The latest catalyst came from presidential comments suggesting that an agreement with Iran was unlikely and that military escalation remained possible. While the headline was significant, Gareth focused on something more revealing: the market's reaction was relatively contained compared with the kind of surge similar developments might have produced earlier in the conflict.

That response suggests traders may already be pricing a substantial geopolitical risk premium into crude oil. A few months ago, comparable escalation headlines might have triggered a much larger move. Today, the advance has been more restrained. The implication is not that geopolitical risks have disappeared, but that markets are becoming more accustomed to them. When increasingly serious headlines produce progressively smaller reactions, it is worth asking whether much of the expected risk has already been reflected in price.

The technical chart provided an additional clue before the latest news arrived. Earlier in the week, crude oil tested an ascending trend line and appeared vulnerable to a breakdown. Buyers defended that support before the session ended, and a subsequent test produced another successful hold. Those repeated defenses were the breadcrumbs Gareth emphasized. The chart was showing demand at a specific technical level before the geopolitical catalyst gave traders a new reason to buy.

For the bearish setup, \$88.75 remains the line in the sand. A confirmed daily close below that level would break the existing support structure and open the door toward Gareth's downside target near \$78 per barrel. Until that happens, the ascending trend line remains intact and traders have little technical justification for assuming a major breakdown is underway. The lesson is to recognize the headline without allowing it to override the chart.

Earnings Season Analysis: Why Strong Results Can Still Send Stocks Lower

Earnings season is reinforcing another important market principle: strong financial results do not automatically produce higher stock prices. Samsung reportedly delivered earnings growth of approximately 800%, an extraordinary headline by almost any conventional measure. Yet shares declined roughly 2.5% to 3% as investors compared those results with expectations that had climbed even higher, reportedly into the 850% to 900% range.

The market was not necessarily rejecting Samsung's business performance. It was reacting to the difference between what the company delivered and what investors had already priced into the stock. That gap between expectations and reality is especially important when valuations and sentiment have become stretched. A company can report outstanding growth and still disappoint traders if the anticipated result was even stronger.

Taiwan Semiconductor offered a similar example after releasing impressive preliminary revenue figures while its shares traded modestly lower. Gareth identified a potential intraday trading opportunity around a gap-fill level referenced during the show near 4.59, although the exact quoted level and instrument require confirmation before publication. The broader setup illustrates how earnings-related volatility can create technical opportunities independent of whether the underlying financial report appears bullish or bearish.

Pepsi provided a different perspective on the earnings environment. The company reported solid organic growth and results above earnings and revenue expectations, but reduced its forward guidance as transportation and other operating costs increased. Higher diesel prices are particularly relevant for a business that depends on moving products across a large distribution network. Gareth interpreted the company's apparent reluctance to pass all those costs along to consumers as a potential sign of demand sensitivity. That raises an important question for the broader market: how much additional inflation can companies absorb before margins or consumer spending begin to suffer?

These reactions reinforce why Gareth places so much emphasis on technical analysis and trading psychology. Day traders cannot rely on whether a headline sounds favorable. They need a defined setup, an entry, a target, and a point where the trade is no longer valid. Position sizing and emotional discipline matter just as much, particularly when price moves against the obvious interpretation of the news. The goal is not to win an argument with the market. It is to recognize what the market is actually doing and manage the trade accordingly.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: \$3.18 to \$3.19 Resistance Could Trigger a Breakout

Natural gas has delivered five consecutive advancing sessions, bringing prices into a resistance zone that could determine whether the rally has another leg higher. Gareth noted that members of the Smart Money Commodity group had an opportunity to secure profits on half their position while maintaining exposure with the remainder. That approach reduces some risk after a strong move without completely abandoning the possibility of a breakout.

The chart shows a descending trend line connecting several previous high pivots, with natural gas now testing resistance between \$3.18 and \$3.19. A decisive move above that area would break the declining resistance structure and create a potential path toward \$3.33. The significance of the level comes from the repeated reactions along the trend line. Each successful rejection has reinforced resistance, making a confirmed break more meaningful if buyers can finally push through it.

The next catalyst is the natural gas inventory release scheduled for 10:30 a.m. ET. Inventory data can produce sharp short-term volatility, particularly when price is already sitting against a major technical boundary. For traders, the priority is not predicting the inventory number but watching whether the resulting move confirms a breakout or produces another rejection. A brief spike above resistance is less convincing than a move that holds. This is where the chart must confirm the trade.

Gold and Silver Technical Analysis: Breakdown Confirmation Becomes Critical

Precious metals are showing a different technical picture. Gold recently closed below an important ascending trend line, putting the existing bullish structure under pressure. However, Gareth emphasized that an initial break is not necessarily sufficient to confirm a sustained move lower. The next session's closing price will help determine whether sellers have established control or whether the breakdown proves temporary.

For gold, a daily close below the previous session's low would strengthen the bearish interpretation. Conversely, a recovery back above the broken trend line would suggest buyers are attempting to reclaim the support structure. That distinction matters because failed breakdowns can reverse quickly, trapping traders who entered on the initial move without waiting for confirmation. The next close, rather than the first violation of support, is the more useful signal.

Silver is showing similar weakness, with price testing and beginning to slip beneath its own ascending trend line. Gareth identified \$55 as the first significant downside target if the breakdown confirms, followed by \$50 if selling pressure accelerates. Those levels represent the next areas where traders would look for a potential reaction rather than guaranteed destinations. A confirmed breakdown would favor the bearish scenario, while a recovery above the trend line would weaken it.

The important takeaway across both metals is that confirmation should take priority over anticipation. A chart can look bearish intraday and still recover before the close. Traders who wait for the market to establish whether support has genuinely failed are working with more information than those reacting to the first move through a line.

Tesla Stock Technical Analysis: \$400 Resistance Tests the Trading Channel

Tesla continues to trade within a well-defined parallel channel, with price repeatedly respecting its upper and lower boundaries. That consistency gives traders a useful framework for identifying where the risk/reward changes. The stock is now approaching the upper portion of the channel, with the psychologically and technically important \$400 area representing a major resistance level.

Until Tesla establishes a confirmed breakout above that resistance, Gareth's preferred technical interpretation remains a potential rejection from the upper boundary. The reasoning is based on the existing pattern rather than a fundamental judgment about the company. When a stock has repeatedly reversed from the same channel resistance, the burden of proof rests with buyers to demonstrate that the structure has changed.

A sustained break above \$400 would require reassessing the setup and could signal that the established channel is giving way to a stronger advance. A rejection, on the other hand, would preserve the existing range-trading framework. The key is not assuming the stock must reverse simply because it has reached resistance, but recognizing that the level offers a clear decision point.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: \$87,200 Resistance and \$81,000 Support Define the Range

Bitcoin remains trapped between two significant technical levels, leaving traders without a confirmed directional advantage in the middle of the range. Gareth identified \$87,200 as the major upside resistance and \$81,000 as the critical downside support. Until price breaks one of those boundaries, the market is offering more uncertainty than conviction.

A confirmed breakout above \$87,200 would shift the technical outlook toward the bullish side, opening a potential advance into the \$95,000 to \$97,000 resistance zone. That scenario would indicate buyers have absorbed the supply that has repeatedly limited upside progress. The breakout would be the signal that changes the setup, rather than simply another attempt to rally within the established range.

The bearish alternative begins with a break below \$81,000. Losing that support would expose Bitcoin to a potential decline toward \$75,500, an area Gareth associated with the base of the previous bull flag consolidation. Such a move would suggest that the range had resolved lower and that sellers were gaining control of the near-term structure.

With Bitcoin trading between those levels, Gareth's approach is to remain patient rather than force a position. There is no requirement to trade every market or anticipate every breakout. Waiting for confirmation may mean missing the first portion of a move, but it can also help avoid repeated false signals while price remains range-bound. In this environment, patience is part of the trading strategy, not an absence of one.

Gareth Soloway's Market Outlook: Respect the Trend Until the Charts Break

The defining feature of today's market is the gap between the uncertainty reflected in the headlines and the more selective signals emerging from the charts. The S&P 500 remains close to record highs despite rising energy costs and geopolitical pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield has produced a meaningful daily reversal that could become more significant if the weekly candle confirms. Together, those developments suggest the broader equity outlook remains more constructive than the prevailing news cycle might imply.

The individual trading setups require a more conditional approach. Crude oil needs to break \$88.75 before the larger bearish target near \$78 comes into play. Natural gas must clear \$3.18 to \$3.19 to strengthen the case for \$3.33. Gold and silver need confirmed closes to validate their emerging breakdowns, while Tesla must prove it can overcome \$400 resistance. Bitcoin remains a waiting game between \$87,200 and \$81,000, with the next confirmed break likely to provide the more meaningful directional signal.

The bottom line from Gareth's October 8 Trading Game Plan is that market strength should be respected until the charts provide evidence that it is failing. Bearish headlines alone are not enough to justify fighting an established trend, just as a promising breakout attempt is not enough to justify entering before confirmation. The advantage comes from knowing which levels change the setup, recognizing when the market is rejecting a narrative, and having the discipline to wait until price provides a reason to act.