My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 04/17/2026: NASDAQ 13-Day Win Streak, OpEx Risk, and Oil Price Floor

The intersection of geopolitical shifts and unprecedented technical milestones has created a historic moment in the financial markets. As breaking news regarding the Strait of Hormuz sends shockwaves through the energy sector, equities are achieving feats not seen since the dot-com bubble. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan Revealed show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, provided a masterclass on navigating these extraordinary conditions. By stripping away the emotional noise and focusing purely on price action, technical levels, and institutional mechanics, Gareth revealed a roadmap for traders looking to capitalize on the current volatility.

Today's article dives deeper into the critical themes discussed on the show, offering expanded historical context, technical analysis, and psychological insights to help you trade with a probability-based edge.

The Unprecedented NASDAQ Streak and the S&P 500 Magnet

The technology sector is currently exhibiting a level of relentless bullish momentum that requires a deep look into the history books to fully contextualize. The NASDAQ composite is registering its 13th consecutive positive trading session, accompanied by a staggering 16% rally from its recent lows.

To understand the gravity of this move, we must look at historical precedents. As Gareth highlighted:

"The last time we had 13 updates on the NASDAQ was 2009. The last time we had a 16% plus rally with 13 straight updates, you have to go back to the dot-com era."

However, the current market has achieved something even more remarkable: this is the first time in history that the market has combined a 13-day winning streak with a 16% rally while simultaneously hitting new all-time highs. In 2009, the streak occurred during a recovery from the depths of the Great Financial Crisis. In the dot-com era, the market was experiencing a speculative frenzy. Today's price action is entirely unprecedented in its structure.

While the NASDAQ approaches a massive technical level just below 25,000, the S&P 500 is telling an equally compelling technical story. The broader index is rapidly approaching the upper parallel of a multi-year channel that has contained price action flawlessly since 2020. Going into today's session, the S&P 500 was trading just 1.5% away from this epic resistance line.

Gareth beautifully articulated the psychological and technical phenomenon of price approaching major trend lines:

"It almost works like a magnet, right? If you have two magnets far away, they don't have any impact. But when you bring them close, what happens? It draws the magnet to it. And that's kind of what you see in the psychology of the market with these parallels."

When price action gets this close to a multi-year resistance level, the market often experiences a gravitational pull, drawing the asset into the line before a meaningful reversal can occur. Traders should be on high alert as these indices approach their respective macroeconomic trend lines.

Geopolitics, Oil's Collapse, and the Strategic Reserve Floor

The catalyst for today's specific market gap-up stems from the Middle East. News broke that the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints for global energy supplies—has been opened to commercial traffic for the duration of the current ceasefire.

The immediate reaction in the commodities market was violent. US crude oil (WTI) collapsed, dropping as low as $81.75 before staging a minor bounce back to the $83 level. While this drop provides immediate relief to inflation fears and acts as a tailwind for equities, Gareth provided a crucial piece of macroeconomic foresight regarding the floor for oil prices:

"As soon as it gets below that $80 a barrel mark, the big countries that have gone into their strategic reserves are going to start buying."

This dynamic creates a fascinating synthetic "put option" on the energy market. Over the past few years, major global economies have aggressively depleted their strategic petroleum reserves to combat inflation and energy shocks. They cannot risk being caught empty-handed in the event of another geopolitical crisis. Therefore, the $75 to $80 zone serves as a massive accumulation area for sovereign nations looking to replenish their supplies. This institutional-level buying pressure is highly likely to keep oil elevated and prevent a total collapse in energy prices.

Furthermore, the resolution of the immediate oil crisis will force the market to face a sobering reality. When oil was spiking from $60 to $120, it masked underlying economic weaknesses. Once the energy narrative fades, the market's focus will inevitably pivot back to the health of the consumer and the labor market—both of which have been showing signs of significant strain for anyone outside the top tiers of income.

The Hidden Hand of Options Expiration (OpEx)

One of the most valuable insights from today's show involved the hidden mechanics of institutional trading, specifically regarding Options Expiration (OpEx). While retail traders often attribute every market move to a news headline, professional traders understand the underlying plumbing of the financial system.

Despite oil collapsing today, the market was already rallying aggressively yesterday when oil was still trading at $90 a barrel. Why? The answer lies in the options market.

Two weeks ago, amid market fear, a massive volume of put options was purchased by market participants seeking downside protection. Institutions and market makers are typically the entities selling these puts. If the market were to collapse, these institutions would be on the hook for catastrophic payouts.

To avoid taking these massive losses, institutions utilize their capital to buy the underlying equities, driving the market higher. Their goal is simple: push the market up so that the lopsided put options expire completely worthless. Once the options expire and the institutions collect their premium, the artificial upward pressure on the market is released. This is why Gareth warned of a potential "hangover" effect or pullback early next week once the OpEx catalyst is removed. Understanding these institutional mechanics is what separates reactive amateur traders from proactive professionals.

Earnings Season: The "Priced to Perfection" Dilemma

As earnings season kicks into high gear, a dangerous theme is emerging among market leaders: stocks are priced to perfection. When an asset experiences a mammoth run-up heading into its quarterly report, the market's expectations become so inflated that even a fundamental "beat" is treated as a disappointment.

We are seeing this play out in real-time across the technology and semiconductor sectors. Trillion-dollar behemoths like ASML and Taiwan Semi (TSM) reported phenomenal, expectation-beating numbers, yet their stocks sold off. The market had simply rallied too far, too fast, pricing in scenarios that were nearly impossible to exceed.

Netflix provided the latest example of this phenomenon. Despite meeting or slightly beating revenue estimates, the streaming giant's stock plummeted due to poor forward guidance and the announcement that co-founder Reed Hastings is leaving the company. For traders looking to capitalize on this volatility, Gareth identified precise technical levels for Netflix: a day-tradable bounce level at $90.45, and a deeper swing-trade target at the $84.50 gap fill.

This "priced to perfection" vulnerability extends across the market:

• Semiconductors (SMH): The ETF has surged nearly 30% from its recent lows and is opening right at a massive multi-year trend line near $465. Historically, this exact trend line has been the catalyst for every major semiconductor pullback.
• Oracle: After an explosive $50 rally from $135 to $185, the stock is slamming into major resistance. The easy money on the long side has been made.
• Microsoft: Gareth is eyeing the $440 pivot low as a potential swing short entry if the stock pushes higher in the coming days.
• Alcoa: The aluminum producer is falling on earnings, exacerbated by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the resolution of factory strikes. The stock is approaching a potential buy zone near $58.50.

The lesson here is critical: in an overextended market, buying the news on a great earnings report is often a trap. Professional traders wait for the emotional flush and buy at mathematically derived support levels.

Crypto's Contrarian Edge and Precious Metals

While the NASDAQ has been stealing the spotlight with its historic streak, the cryptocurrency market has been quietly setting up for a major move. Bitcoin has broken above the critical 76,000 pivot point intraday, signaling a potential continuation toward the 80,000 to 85,000 target zone. Ethereum is mirroring this strength, forming a textbook bull flag with an upside target of 2,600 or higher.

What makes the crypto setup so compelling right now is the underlying psychology of the market. As Gareth astutely observed:

"The sentiment is so bearish in crypto that it's bullish… when everyone is lopsided on this side, it has no other way to go but go back to this side. And that's the psychology of investing."

Markets operate like a pendulum. When sentiment becomes universally one-sided—when every retail trader is convinced an asset is dead—the selling pressure exhausts itself. At that precise moment of maximum bearishness, the path of least resistance shifts to the upside. While Gareth maintains a longer-term thesis that crypto (along with equities) will eventually face a broader macroeconomic unwinding later this year, the near-term technicals point to a powerful contrarian rally.

In the precious metals sector, the charts are equally dynamic. Gold continues its upward push, targeting a major parallel channel resistance zone between 5,000 and 5,100. However, unless it decisively breaks above 5,100, the broader macro trend remains downward. Silver, meanwhile, is demonstrating relative strength as it pierces through a heavy resistance level at $82. Interestingly, gold is currently trading as a hybrid asset, catching bids in both risk-on and risk-off environments—a structural shift in how the metal has historically behaved.

Conclusion: Trading the Probabilities

Today's market action is a testament to why technical analysis and an understanding of market mechanics are non-negotiable for long-term survival. Whether it is the historic 13-day streak on the NASDAQ, the institutional manipulation surrounding Options Expiration, or the macroeconomic realities of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the charts provide a roadmap that cuts through the noise of mainstream media narratives.

As Gareth frequently reminds his viewers, the charts are not about absolute certainty; they are about high probabilities. By identifying multi-factor resistance levels, understanding when a sector is priced to perfection, and recognizing the psychological extremes of market sentiment, traders can consistently put the mathematical edge in their favor.

As we navigate the remainder of this historic earnings season and monitor the geopolitical developments in the energy sector, discipline will be your greatest asset. Do not chase overextended rallies. Wait for price action to come to your predefined levels, manage your risk meticulously, and always let logic and charts dictate your trading game plan.