My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 04/20/2026: Geopolitical Shock Fails to Break Markets S&P 500 at Key Resistance Semiconductor Divergence Bitcoin $74k

Geopolitical shockwaves traditionally send equity markets into a tailspin, but today’s market environment is operating under a completely different set of psychological rules. Over the weekend, global tensions spiked as the Strait of Hormuz was closed following a military exchange between U.S. and Iranian vessels. Historically, an event of this magnitude in one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints would trigger massive panic selling. Instead, after a sharp initial drop in overnight futures, the markets gently floated back to near-flat levels by the morning bell.

In this morning's My Trading Game Plan show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, broke down the profound disconnect between global fundamentals and market price action. By stripping away the emotional noise and focusing purely on technical levels and human psychology, Gareth provided a masterclass on how to navigate an environment where logic seems inverted, revealing critical setups across equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.

The Psychology of Geopolitics and Market Resilience

To understand why the S&P 500 and NASDAQ only opened down a fractional third of a percent to a half percent despite a major geopolitical escalation, we have to look at the underlying human psychology driving institutional and retail money.

When news broke that the Strait of Hormuz was closed, oil futures naturally popped. However, the move was remarkably muted, with oil only rising about 3.5% to $87 a barrel, recovering from its Friday close of $83. Why didn't oil surge 10% or 20%? The answer lies in the market's anticipation of political maneuvering ahead of the upcoming November midterms.

"Everyone is jumping to the conclusion that the president of the U.S. will find an off-ramp here and make a deal," Gareth explained.

The market is essentially acting as a probability engine. Investors are betting that the current administration cannot afford the inflationary impact of sustained high oil prices heading into an election cycle. Rumors are already circulating about the potential release of $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds to negotiate the reopening of the strait. Whether this specific deal materializes or not, the market's collective psychology is pricing in a swift resolution, overriding the immediate fundamental threat.

The S&P 500 and the V-Bottom Phenomenon

This psychological resilience is physically manifesting on the charts through what has become a defining characteristic of modern markets: the relentless V-bottom. We saw this phenomenon following the COVID crash, again last year in April of 2025, and we are currently witnessing one of the most dramatic vertical moves to the upside in market history.

Retail investors and hedge funds, terrified of being left behind, are aggressively buying every dip. This dynamic pushed the S&P 500 right into the upper boundary of its macro channel on Friday, perfectly tagging a critical trendline that connects the major market highs.

This brings the broader market to a massive technical test. The S&P 500 is currently sitting at major resistance. If the index manages to break through this upper trendline, the technical upside target projects out to 7,500—an additional 5% move from current levels. However, history urges caution. Every major low since the COVID crash has bounced off the bottom of this channel, and tags of the upper resistance line—like the one we saw during the 2021 bull market—have historically preceded significant rounded tops and subsequent corrections.

Macro Divergences: The Real Economy vs. The Stock Market

One of the most fascinating segments of today's analysis highlighted the glaring divergence between the underlying U.S. economy and the stock market's all-time highs.

Let's look at the data from earlier this year. In January and February, the stock market was lower, but the consumer was in a better position. Oil was trading at $60 a barrel, and gasoline at the pump was around $3 per gallon. Today, the stock market is printing new all-time highs, yet the consumer is under significantly more stress, with oil trading between $80 to $90 a barrel and gas prices hitting $4 per gallon.

Fundamentally, the economy has weakened, yet equities are higher. This is a textbook example of how, in the short term, markets are driven by fear, greed, and liquidity expectations rather than pure economics.

"In the near term, human psychology is the most important thing," Gareth noted, while reminding viewers that over the longer term, economic fundamentals always eventually matter.

This macro tension is also visible in the U.S. Dollar and the 10-year Treasury yield. The Dollar recently hit a massive, multi-year resistance zone dating back to 2014, 2015, and 2020. After being rejected at this macro ceiling, it has pulled back to a previous high pivot, which is now acting as technical support. The expectation is a small bounce off this support before an eventual break to the downside. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield is fading off its recent pop. Traders should closely monitor the 3.95 level on the 10-year; a break below this technical support would likely trigger the next major leg lower in yields.

Semiconductor Warnings and "Priced to Perfection" Traps

While the broader market remains technically bullish in the immediate term, the semiconductor sector is flashing a massive warning sign beneath the surface.

Looking at the weekly chart for the SMH (Semiconductor ETF), a glaring negative divergence has formed on the RSI (Relative Strength Index). While the price of the SMH has been making higher highs, the RSI has been making lower highs. In technical analysis, this indicates that the momentum driving the price upward is exhausting. While RSI is notoriously difficult to use for precise timing, this weekly divergence strongly suggests a major correction in the semiconductor space within the next three months, likely breaking key trendline supports.

This brings us to today's standout mover: Marvell Technologies (MRVL). On the back of a newly announced deal with Google/Alphabet, the stock surged, bringing its total gain since March 5th to an astonishing 85%, and hitting a 95% gain at the morning's peak.

In pre-market trading, MRVL pierced the $150 level, which serves as a massive technical resistance point. While the underlying news is undeniably positive, a stock that doubles in roughly a month is pricing in absolute perfection.

"When you gain 100% in basically a month, that's where a stock is pricing in [the] best case scenario," Gareth warned.

We have seen this exact setup punish overly exuberant investors recently. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), ASML, and Micron all reported stellar earnings, yet suffered massive selloffs—with Micron dropping 30%—simply because the perfection was already priced in. For disciplined traders, the $150 level on MRVL presents a highly compelling short opportunity based on extreme technical extension.

Precision Setups: Meta, ASTS, and Commodities

The morning's analysis also uncovered several precise, actionable levels across individual equities and the commodities complex:

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)

Following news that a satellite released by Blue Origin exploded, ASTS shares took a sharp hit. The stock opened in the pre-market right at $77, which aligns perfectly with a critical technical trendline. This is a make-or-break level for day traders. If the $77 support holds, the stock could float back up. However, if it breaks, the next major pivot low and support level doesn't arrive until $72.

Meta Platforms

Meta has enjoyed a monster 32% rally off its recent lows, an incredible feat for a multi-trillion-dollar company. However, for swing traders looking for a high-probability short entry, patience is required. By connecting the all-time high, the secondary high, and the third high, a clear descending trendline emerges. This creates a major shortable zone between the $715 to $718 level. It's not there yet, but if the stock continues to rally into this zone this week, it becomes a prime target.

Gold and Silver

The precious metals are currently exhibiting bearish technical patterns. Gold has formed a downward-sloping parallel channel. While it could see a short-term bounce, the broader technical expectation is an eventual move down to major support at $3,900, with a longer-term, year-end target of $3,500.

Silver's chart is even clearer. On Friday, silver pushed exactly into the $82 resistance level that Gareth had been warning about for a week, and was violently rejected. This rejection formed a great bearish pattern. Traders should look for a test of the $66 to $64 range within the next two to three weeks, followed by an eventual macro move down to the $49 to $54 level.

Natural Gas

In stark contrast to the precious metals, natural gas is executing a textbook technical breakout. The asset has pushed above the key $2.70 level. What makes this trade beautiful is the defined risk-to-reward ratio. Traders can set a hard stop just below $2.70 on a daily closing basis. If the trade fails, the loss is a mere 2 to 3 cents (roughly 1-2%). But if the breakout holds, the upside target is over $3, representing a 10% to 20% gain. This is the essence of professional trading: asymmetrical risk.

Bitcoin's Weekend Test and the Fed Factor

Because traditional markets close on the weekends, cryptocurrency often acts as the sole real-time barometer for global risk sentiment. When the Strait of Hormuz news broke, Bitcoin absorbed the immediate "risk-off" shock, pulling back on Saturday and Sunday. However, as traditional markets stabilized Monday morning, Bitcoin bounced back in tandem.

Bitcoin is currently navigating a critical technical juncture. It must hold the heavy support zone between $74,000 and $75,000. As long as this floor remains intact, the short-term bias remains neutral-to-bullish with a clear upside target of $80,000, which will act as massive resistance. However, if the $74,000 level breaks, Bitcoin will likely flush down to retest $68,000, opening the door for a larger bear flag pattern to play out. Looking further out, Gareth maintains that by year-end, Bitcoin will likely face deeper downside pressure when the broader stock market eventually enters its next corrective phase.

Looming over all of these assets is the impending Federal Reserve transition. With Jerome Powell set to exit his chairmanship in May, the market is bracing for a shift. While the incoming chair appointed by the administration is widely expected to be more dovish, political gridlock and ongoing investigations are delaying the confirmation vote. This creates a vacuum of uncertainty regarding future liquidity, interest rates, and inflation management—factors that will ultimately dictate whether the S&P 500 breaks out to 7,500 or violently rejects its current resistance.

Conclusion: Discipline Over Delusion

We are currently trading in a market heavily influenced by extreme leverage, particularly the explosion of zero-day options (0DTE), and a retail sentiment that genuinely believes equities will never experience a sustained drawdown again. This toxic combination of high leverage and blind optimism is exactly what creates the vertical V-bottoms we are seeing, but it is also the exact recipe for devastating traps.

As Gareth regularly reminds his viewers, logic and charts beat hype and narratives every time. Whether it's recognizing that a 95% run in MRVL makes it a short rather than a buy, understanding that $4 gas and $87 oil do not fundamentally support all-time stock market highs, or having the discipline to risk pennies to make dollars on a natural gas breakout, success in this environment requires cold, calculated objectivity.

By ignoring the emotional noise of geopolitical headlines and focusing strictly on the technical levels—from the S&P 500's macro channel to Bitcoin's $74,000 support floor—investors can strip away the anxiety of the unknown and trade the probabilities that institutions rely on every single day.