My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 07/13/2026: Market Prep for CPI Week, Chip Selloff, SpaceX Lockup, Key S&P Levels

Semiconductor Weakness Reveals the Week’s Real Risk: Thinning Liquidity

This week is crowded with economic releases, earnings reports, and geopolitical headlines, but Gareth Soloway’s central message from Monday’s My Trading Game Plan Revealed was not about predicting every catalyst. It was about recognizing a market that is being asked to absorb more supply while capital remains expensive and leadership becomes increasingly concentrated.

The sharp decline in the newly listed SK Hynix shares, corresponding weakness in Micron and SanDisk, and the Nasdaq’s underperformance relative to the S&P 500 are all versions of the same signal. Liquidity is becoming less forgiving.

That matters more than any individual headline because it changes how traders should interpret the week ahead. CPI, PPI, retail sales, bank earnings, and semiconductor results will create volatility, but the market’s ability to absorb that volatility will depend on whether buyers still have the capital and conviction to defend the areas that have led the broader advance.

Elevated Yields Keep the Hurdle Rate High

The macro backdrop is adding pressure rather than providing relief.

Escalation in the Middle East has pushed crude oil higher, with Gareth continuing to watch the $79 area as an upside objective. Oil is not the main equity story by itself. Its importance comes through the transmission into inflation expectations, the dollar, and Treasury yields.

The 10-year Treasury yield remains near 4.6%, keeping borrowing costs elevated across the economy. That pressure is especially important for small and mid-sized growth companies, including emerging AI businesses that require significant capital spending before producing durable cash flow.

When the risk-free rate remains near 4.6%, investors demand more from speculative growth stories. Revenue projections that appeared sufficient under lower rates face a much higher hurdle, placing pressure on valuations even when the underlying technology remains compelling.

This week’s data will test that framework. CPI arrives Tuesday, PPI Wednesday, and retail sales Thursday. The difficult combination would be persistent inflation alongside weakening consumer demand. That would leave the market with fewer expectations for lower rates while raising new concerns about economic growth.

The Semiconductor Selloff Is a Liquidity Signal

Oil may have appeared to be the obvious headline entering Monday, but the larger market reaction came from semiconductors.

The newly listed SK Hynix shares fell approximately 15% overnight and were down more than 10% in U.S. premarket trading. The weakness spilled into Micron and SanDisk, putting direct pressure on Nasdaq futures.

The important point is not simply that one semiconductor stock declined. It is the amount of capital the market is being asked to absorb.

Roughly $28 billion in newly available shares creates another destination for money that had previously been concentrated in established memory and semiconductor names. Investors do not need to abandon the sector for that supply to matter. They only need to redistribute capital across a larger group of securities.

That redistribution can weaken the stocks that previously benefited from scarcity and concentrated demand. When new supply arrives at the same time investor appetite is fading, the market begins revealing which valuations depended on uninterrupted liquidity.

The index divergence reflected that pressure. Nasdaq 100 futures were down roughly 1% before the open, while S&P 500 futures were lower by approximately 0.4%. The S&P 500’s broader sector mix provided some insulation, but the sharper Nasdaq decline showed that the market’s former leadership was taking the heavier hit.

The S&P 500 Is Between Decision Levels

The S&P 500 remains in the middle of its current technical range, which means the chart is not offering a high-conviction signal at present prices.

Resistance sits near 7,725, derived from a trendline connecting the February 2025 pivot high with subsequent highs. Support remains near 7,320.

The more immediate structural issue is the rising support trendline beneath the market. Price has already tested that area twice. Another test should not automatically be interpreted as stronger support.

Repeated tests consume demand. Buyers who defended the first and second touches may be less willing or less able to absorb another round of selling. A brief reaction can still develop on a third test, but the probability of a breakdown increases as the level is challenged repeatedly.

That makes confirmation more important than anticipation. A successful defense would keep the broader structure intact. A decisive close below the trendline would show that the market is no longer absorbing pressure as efficiently as it did earlier in the advance.

SpaceX Shows the Risk of New Supply

The same liquidity issue is visible in recent IPO trading.

Despite heavy attention surrounding the SpaceX debut, the stock closed Friday near $145, below its opening price. That left many buyers from the first several sessions underwater while investors who obtained shares near the $135 pre-IPO price remained in a stronger position.

With shares near $143 in premarket trading, $135 becomes the first major decision level. It represents both a technical reference and the price associated with early institutional participation. A reaction from that area would be meaningful, but it should not automatically be treated as a durable long-term floor.

The larger risk comes after the upcoming earnings report, when the expected lock-up expiration could release substantial additional supply. Early employees and insiders may have cost bases far below the public-market price, meaning they can realize significant gains without needing to sell at the exact high.

That changes the framework around $135. It may produce a reaction, but the approaching earnings and lock-up catalysts make it a tactical support area rather than a clean long-term valuation signal. The risk is not simply whether $135 holds on the first test. It is whether demand can continue absorbing shares after additional supply becomes available.

Earnings Season Rewards Preparation, Not Prediction

Major banks begin reporting Tuesday, followed by ASML on Wednesday and Taiwan Semiconductor and Netflix on Thursday. Rather than attempting to predict each reaction, Gareth emphasized preparing the important chart levels before the reports arrive.

He describes this process as being a “trading prepper.”

The principle is straightforward. Earnings moves happen too quickly for traders to begin studying the chart after the release. By the time the market has processed the headline, guidance, and conference-call details, the first reaction may already be over.

Netflix provides a clear example. Consensus expectations sit near $0.79 per share on $12.57 billion in revenue, with the whisper estimate closer to $0.84. Even a result above those numbers would not guarantee a positive reaction. Forward guidance will determine whether investors believe the current valuation remains justified.

If Netflix sells off sharply, Gareth has identified gap-fill support near $68.70. The value of that level is not that price must bounce there. Its value is that the technical reference is known before the volatility begins. Traders can then evaluate the reaction rather than responding emotionally to the headline.

Costco is another chart requiring confirmation. The stock moved below a longer-term trendline dating back to 2023 late last week. The breakdown has not fully confirmed, but failure to reclaim that line would represent a meaningful change in structure for a company that has carried a persistent valuation premium.

Gold and Silver Remain Secondary Confirmations

The stronger dollar and elevated yields are also pressuring precious metals.

Gold is compressing inside a wedge, with the converging boundaries forcing the chart toward a decision. A downside break would bring the $3,500 to $3,600 area into focus. Until the wedge resolves, the compression itself is more important than trying to predict the direction of the eventual move.

Silver remains weaker. The chart has formed a bear flag and was rejected after returning to the original breakdown area. Support sits near $54, followed by the psychological $50 level. Gareth’s broader downside model extends toward approximately $46 to $45 if those supports fail.

Natural gas is testing the lower portion of a longer-term parallel channel after a decline that nearly invalidated its previous cup-and-handle structure. Late-summer seasonality may eventually support demand, but the chart still needs to prove that buyers are willing to defend the lower boundary.

These commodity setups are not the dominant story of the week, but they reinforce the broader message. A firm dollar and elevated yields continue to influence asset classes well beyond equities.

Revolutionary Technology Does Not Eliminate Valuation Risk

The semiconductor weakness also connects to Gareth’s broader warning about speculative cycles.

The bearish argument is not that artificial intelligence lacks economic value. Transformative technology and severe equity drawdowns can exist at the same time.

The internet changed commerce and communication, but many leading technology stocks still declined between 75% and 85% after the dot-com bubble peaked. Similar patterns appeared in solar stocks, cannabis stocks, and 3D-printing companies. The underlying themes had legitimate long-term potential, but prices moved too far ahead of sustainable fundamentals.

The same risk applies when semiconductor and AI valuations depend on continued capital inflows, limited supply, and uninterrupted investor enthusiasm. If new issuance keeps absorbing liquidity while yields remain elevated, some of the market’s strongest former leaders could experience much deeper resets.

Gareth’s expectation is that a number of high-flying technology and semiconductor stocks could eventually trade 75% below their peaks if the liquidity unwind continues. That is not a claim that every AI company will fail. It is a warning that technological importance does not make valuation irrelevant.

Bottom Line

The market is entering a catalyst-heavy week with less room for disappointment than the headline calendar suggests.

The real framework is the interaction between expensive capital, growing share supply, and narrowing leadership. The semiconductor selloff matters because it shows what can happen when the market is no longer willing to absorb every new offering without repricing the rest of the sector.

The key levels define where that pressure either stabilizes or spreads. The S&P 500 remains bounded by 7,725 resistance and 7,320 support, with its repeatedly tested trendline carrying increasing importance. SpaceX is approaching the $135 institutional reference as a future lock-up adds supply risk. Netflix has major gap-fill support near $68.70 if earnings produce a deeper reset.

This is not a week that requires predicting every economic print or earnings reaction. It requires knowing which levels change the read before the volatility arrives.

The edge is not prediction. It is preparation.