S&P 500 Failed Breakout Signals More Downside as Tech, Bitcoin and Gold Test Key Support

October 30, 2026 | My Trading Game Plan | Guest Host: Drew Dosek

The S&P 500's failed attempt to reclaim a key rising trend line is putting additional downside levels in play, while weakness in semiconductors, major technology stocks, and Bitcoin points to broader pressure on risk appetite. During Friday's My Trading Game Plan, guest host Drew Dosek, filling in for Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway, focused on the technical structures that could determine where selling pressure slows and where traders may find more favorable opportunities.

The central theme was patience. Several assets are approaching important support levels, but the strength of a setup depends on how price responds when those levels are tested. Failed breakouts, earnings-driven gaps, and deteriorating sector leadership can create conditions where an attractive price becomes even more attractive. Dosek's framework centered on identifying the strongest technical areas, allowing volatility to develop, and waiting for price action to support the trade.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Failed Breakout Puts 750 in Focus

The S&P 500, tracked through the SPY ETF, is showing a technical warning following its unsuccessful attempt to reclaim a rising trend line. Price had previously maintained its position above that support structure, but the latest move back toward the line failed. That rejection leaves the market vulnerable to additional selling as traders reassess the strength of the prior advance.

Failed breakouts can produce sharp reversals because traders who entered expecting continuation may begin exiting as the setup deteriorates. That selling can reinforce the move lower, particularly when broader market conditions are already weakening. Dosek highlighted this dynamic as an important reason to respect the current downside structure rather than assume every support test will produce a lasting recovery.

The first support levels on SPY sit at \$760.40 and \$759.97, with the latter representing a gap fill. If selling continues through that area, the next downside level comes into focus at \$754.01. Below that, the broader parallel channel dating back to October 2022 points toward the \$750 region, which also carries psychological significance as a major round number.

A move into \$750 could attract buyers looking for a technical bounce, but the quality of that reaction will matter. A brief rebound that fails to reclaim broken support would leave the downside structure largely intact. Stronger evidence of stabilization would come from buyers defending support and price beginning to recover the levels lost during the decline.

Nasdaq 100 and Semiconductor ETF: Technology Weakness Tests Market Leadership

The Nasdaq 100, tracked through QQQ, is facing similar pressure as technology stocks react to earnings and weakening momentum. Dosek identified \$683.69 as an immediate support level, while the larger weekly parallel channel extending from the April 2025 lows places a more significant downside area near \$656.93.

That lower channel boundary is worth watching because it represents a longer-term structural level rather than a short-term price pivot. A decline toward \$656.93 would bring QQQ closer to a potential technical reaction area, although the condition of the broader market would remain important in evaluating the opportunity.

Semiconductors provide another useful measure of technology-sector strength. The Semiconductor ETF, SMH, recently advanced for three sessions before encountering resistance near the 50% level of a rising parallel channel originating from the April 2025 lows. The rejection suggests sellers remain active at an important technical barrier.

For SMH, \$527.55 represents minor support, followed by a more substantial level at \$503.63, associated with a July pivot low. The nearby \$500 psychological level adds significance to that lower region. Continued semiconductor weakness would reinforce the bearish read on the Nasdaq, while stabilization in SMH could provide an early indication that selling pressure across technology is beginning to ease.

Amazon and Intel Stock Analysis: Earnings Gaps Call for Patience

Individual technology stocks are adding to the pressure, with Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) among the names discussed during the session. Sharp earnings-related moves can push stocks through nearby support levels, particularly when investors are adjusting positions after a significant change in expectations.

Intel's technical chart points toward a gap-fill area near \$66.78 following its decline. That level offers a reference point for a possible reaction, but the broader selling environment argues for confirmation before treating the gap as reliable support.

Amazon presents a more developed technical setup. Following a decline from the prior close of \$243.79 toward \$225, the stock is approaching an area where multiple technical factors converge. A 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at \$217.98 aligns with the lower boundary of a rising parallel channel dating back to January 2023. A separate gap fill sits near \$215.

The overlap near \$217.98 gives that region greater technical significance than an isolated support level. A move below \$220 could bring the confluence into play, with the \$215 gap providing an additional reference if selling extends. Traders would then be watching for evidence that buyers are defending the area rather than relying on the levels alone.

Dosek also emphasized waiting approximately three to five trading days after unusually large earnings moves before reevaluating certain setups. This approach allows some of the initial volatility, position adjustments, and potential forced selling to work through the market. It is a trading guideline rather than a fixed timetable, but it can help reduce the temptation to enter immediately after a sharp decline.

Treasury Yields and Gold: Why Precious Metals Can Fall During Market Stress

The relationship between Treasury yields and precious metals is another important part of the current market picture. The 10-year Treasury yield has been moving lower toward support near the midpoint of a parallel channel dating back to April 2023. A developing bottoming tail suggests buyers may be responding at that level, although a breakdown from the current structure would bring 4.746% into focus as the next significant support area.

Falling yields can provide a favorable backdrop for gold by reducing the relative appeal of interest-bearing assets. Yet gold and silver have also been experiencing selling pressure. One possible explanation is portfolio-level liquidity demand, where investors sell liquid holdings to raise cash, reduce exposure, or rebalance positions during periods of market stress.

That explanation is consistent with the type of cross-asset selling traders sometimes see during volatile sessions, although it does not establish that institutional margin calls are driving the current move. The price charts remain the more direct evidence for evaluating where support may develop.

For gold, Dosek identified \$3,800 to \$3,850 as the initial support region. A sustained break below that area would shift attention toward longer-term technical references around \$3,650 and \$3,500. These levels come from separate historical trend lines and should be evaluated in the context of the broader price structure.

Silver has shown a more aggressive decline, falling below \$50 and approaching trend-line support near \$49.09. Its daily Relative Strength Index was cited near 24.6, well below the traditional oversold threshold of 30. That reading indicates stretched downside momentum and increases the relevance of watching for a technical bounce, but oversold conditions can persist during strong declines.

If silver can defend the \$49 region and begin recovering, the midpoint of its parallel channel near \$59 becomes a potential upside reference. A failure to hold support would weaken that bounce setup and require another assessment of the chart.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: \$75,000 Support and the \$70,000 Channel Level

Bitcoin remains under pressure alongside other risk-sensitive assets, bringing several longer-term chart structures back into focus. Dosek highlighted the area around \$75,000, associated with a September pivot low, as an initial level where buyers may attempt to stabilize price.

The broader technical picture includes a rising parallel channel dating back to April 2021 and a developing head-and-shoulders structure. The neckline of that pattern has not yet been breached according to the chart discussed during the broadcast, making confirmation especially important before treating the formation as a completed bearish breakdown.

If Bitcoin loses the \$75,000 area and selling continues, the lower boundary of the long-term channel near \$70,000 becomes a more significant potential support zone. That region offers a clearer structural reference for traders willing to wait for a deeper pullback.

Crypto-related equities are also showing weakness. Coinbase (COIN) has been trading within a larger bearish consolidation structure, with an intermediate rising trend line from July offering one potential reaction area. Dosek identified \$137.34 as a more substantial support level based on a trend line that has been tested multiple times.

The repeated historical reactions give that level technical relevance, although no support is guaranteed to hold. With cryptocurrency markets facing elevated uncertainty, Dosek's approach favors waiting for stronger confirmation and accepting that some trades may develop without offering an attractive entry.

Reddit and ASX Stock Setups: Fibonacci Support and Repeated Trend-Line Tests

Reddit (RDDT) is another stock where a significant decline has brought longer-term technical levels into view. Following a move from approximately \$129 toward \$98, the stock has been testing a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement measured from its August 2024 low.

An initial support area sits near \$95, while Dosek identified \$80 as a stronger confluence zone. That lower region combines the April 2025 pivot low, an October 2024 breakout area, and a prior July 2024 rejection level. Multiple historical reactions around the same price can make the area worth watching for a potential reversal.

If Reddit reaches \$80 and establishes support, the \$119 to \$120 region becomes a possible recovery target. That scenario would depend on buyers producing a sustained reaction from the lower level. A continued breakdown would require reassessing the setup rather than assuming the historical confluence will hold.

ASX is also testing an important technical structure following an earnings-related decline. The stock is approaching the lower boundary of a parallel channel near \$39.66, with a gap-fill area around \$40 adding a second factor.

The concern is the frequency of recent tests. Support that repeatedly attracts buyers can eventually weaken if each rebound loses strength. For ASX, the immediate reaction around \$40 may produce a short-term trading opportunity, but a sustained break beneath the channel would change the technical outlook and put further downside in play.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis: \$103.60 Breakout Level and \$116 Target

Crude oil is showing a different structure from the weakness across technology and cryptocurrency markets. Price has been consolidating beneath a declining trend line, with \$103.60 serving as the important resistance level for a potential breakout.

A confirmed daily close above \$103.60 would strengthen the bullish interpretation of a larger inverse head-and-shoulders formation. Based on the pattern's measured move, Dosek identified a longer-term technical projection near \$148 per barrel. That projection represents the potential magnitude of the pattern if it develops successfully, rather than a guaranteed destination.

A smaller inverse head-and-shoulders formation provides a nearer upside reference around \$116. The \$116 level is the more immediate technical objective if crude oil can clear resistance and sustain the breakout.

For now, the chart requires confirmation. Continued consolidation beneath \$103.60 leaves the breakout pending, while a rejection followed by weakening price action would reduce confidence in the bullish setup. The daily closing price provides a useful way to distinguish a meaningful break from a temporary move above resistance.

Natural Gas Price Outlook: Broken Support Shifts Attention to \$2.90

Natural gas continues to demonstrate why position sizing is especially important in volatile commodity markets. The chart recently lost two support structures: a horizontal level around \$3.08 and a rising trend line originating from August.

Those breakdowns weaken the near-term technical picture and place \$2.90 in focus as the next potential reaction level. A daily close that remains below the broken support would reinforce the bearish structure, while a recovery above those levels could suggest the breakdown is losing momentum.

Dosek emphasized the importance of managing exposure in natural gas because of its tendency toward sharp and unpredictable price movements. Even when a chart presents a technically attractive setup, volatility can make entries and exits difficult. Smaller position sizes and clearly defined risk parameters remain important considerations.

Market Outlook: The Levels That Could Define the Next Trading Move

The S&P 500's failed trend-line recovery sets the tone for the broader market heading into the next trading sessions. Weak semiconductor leadership, sharp earnings reactions, and pressure across Bitcoin and precious metals all support a more selective approach to new positions.

For equities, SPY's \$760.40 to \$759.97 support area is the first test, followed by \$754.01 and \$750 if selling persists. In technology, the behavior of SMH near \$503.63 and Amazon around \$217.98 to \$215 could help determine whether buyers are beginning to defend larger technical levels.

Outside equities, Bitcoin's \$75,000 and \$70,000 support areas, silver's reaction near \$49.09, and crude oil's ability to close above \$103.60 provide separate opportunities to evaluate market strength and weakness.

The takeaway from Dosek's October 30 game plan is straightforward: allow the market to reach the important levels, evaluate the reaction, and require confirmation before committing to a directional thesis. In an environment where failed breakouts and sharp reversals are becoming more prominent, disciplined entries and clearly defined invalidation levels offer a stronger framework than attempting to anticipate every market turn.

This article summarizes technical market commentary from the October 30, 2026, My Trading Game Plan broadcast. The analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and is not personalized financial advice. Technical levels, patterns, and projections are not guarantees of future performance. Trading and investing involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.