Oil's Failed Breakout Signals Market Risk as S&P 500 and Nasdaq Diverge

November 2, 2026 | Game Plan Revealed | Gareth Soloway

Crude oil's failed breakout, growing divergence between the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and several major stocks approaching technical resistance are shaping the trading landscape as November begins. With midterm elections, economic data and corporate earnings on the calendar, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, is focused on how price action is responding to these catalysts.

During Monday's My Trading Game Plan, Gareth highlighted a series of technical developments that could help define the next market moves. Oil's reversal from resistance is raising questions about near-term energy strength, while the S&P 500 continues to hold an important support level despite weakness in technology stocks. Meanwhile, gold, silver and several individual equities are presenting different opportunities and risks depending on their chart structures.

The common thread is confirmation. Several markets are approaching levels where the next sustained move could establish direction. Gareth's framework focuses on those decision points, the technical evidence supporting them and the conditions that would change the outlook.

Crude Oil Price Analysis: Failed Breakout Puts \$94 Support in Focus

Crude oil opened the week under pressure following reports of potential negotiations involving Iran. In the market action discussed during the show, oil was down more than 5%, trading near \$97.50 after briefly reaching approximately \$105 during Friday's session. The reversal brought prices back below a resistance trend line that had been defining the upper boundary of a larger wedge pattern.

Friday's price action was particularly important to Gareth's technical read. Oil briefly moved above the wedge resistance line but failed to maintain that breakout into the close. The subsequent decline reinforced the significance of the failed move and left the market vulnerable to additional selling pressure. Gareth also questioned the timing of the reversal relative to the geopolitical headlines, although price action alone cannot establish whether any market participants had advance knowledge of the news.

The larger wedge remains central to the outlook. Support sits near \$94, while the upper trend line continues to define resistance. As these boundaries converge into early December, the available trading range narrows. Gareth identified approximately \$120 as a potential longer-term upside objective following a confirmed breakout, while a sustained breakdown could open a path toward \$70. Those projections depend on a decisive resolution of the pattern rather than a temporary move beyond either boundary.

Energy equities are adding another layer to the analysis. Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) both approached significant long-term resistance during Friday's trading, with Chevron testing a trend line near \$236.50 before reversing. Their weakness alongside crude oil strengthens the near-term bearish interpretation. For now, \$94 is the important downside reference in oil, while a recovery above the wedge's upper boundary would require reassessing the bearish setup.

S&P 500 Holds 7,480 Support as Nasdaq Shows Signs of Weakness

The broader equity market is presenting a different technical picture. S&P 500 futures recovered late Friday as oil prices declined, helping the index maintain a support area that had previously acted as resistance. Gareth views this successful retest as constructive, particularly while the index continues to hold above its larger support level near 7,480.

That level defines the current bullish framework. As long as the S&P 500 maintains support around 7,480, Gareth sees the potential for an advance toward 8,000 or slightly higher. A sustained break below support would weaken that outlook and suggest the index may need a deeper consolidation before attempting another move higher.

The Nasdaq is showing considerably less strength. Weakness across major technology and AI-related stocks has created a divergence between the two indexes, with the broader S&P 500 benefiting from exposure to sectors outside technology. Gareth raised the possibility that the Nasdaq has already established a cycle high, although that remains a developing technical thesis rather than a confirmed long-term reversal.

This divergence provides an important read on market participation. The S&P 500 can continue advancing while technology leadership deteriorates, but the sustainability of that advance depends partly on whether other sectors can maintain strength. Gareth is watching the Nasdaq's relative weakness alongside the S&P 500's support structure for evidence of whether the current rotation can continue.

Treasury Yields and Midterm Elections Add to the Market Outlook

The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.9% in Gareth's market review, providing another reference point for equity traders. The pace of movement in yields can influence stock valuations, borrowing costs and investor risk appetite. A sharp increase could create renewed pressure on equities, particularly growth stocks, while a rapid decline could reflect growing concerns about economic conditions.

The upcoming November 3 midterm elections add a separate policy consideration. Gareth discussed the historical tendency for markets to respond favorably to periods of divided government, when significant legislative changes can become more difficult to enact. However, the market response will depend on the election results, policy expectations and the economic backdrop.

For traders, the immediate focus remains on how the indexes respond around established technical levels as these events unfold. The S&P 500's ability to defend 7,480 and the Nasdaq's ability to stabilize will help determine whether the current divergence develops into a broader market concern.

Marriott Stock Approaches \$440 Resistance Following Earnings

Corporate earnings are creating individual stock setups that deserve attention beyond the broader indexes. Marriott International (MAR) moved higher following its earnings announcement, reflecting a favorable initial market response. Gareth also discussed the company's performance in the context of consumer spending, particularly the relative resilience of higher-income travelers.

From a technical perspective, the stock's advance is bringing it toward an important resistance area near \$440. Gareth identified this level using a descending trend line connecting previous significant price highs. The intersection creates an area where selling pressure could emerge if buyers struggle to sustain the post-earnings advance.

The setup becomes more interesting if Marriott tests that resistance and begins to reverse. A rejection would support the possibility of a short-side swing trade, while a sustained breakout above the trend line would weaken the bearish thesis. The reaction around \$440 is therefore more informative than the initial earnings gap alone.

Marriott also illustrates a broader theme in the current market. Strength in selected consumer-facing businesses can coexist with pressure elsewhere in the economy. The chart provides a way to evaluate how much of that relative strength may already be reflected in the stock price.

Gold and Silver Technical Analysis: Support Levels and Physical Metals

Precious metals are presenting a different set of technical considerations. Gold has rebounded from approximately \$3,900, an area Gareth identified as a significant historical pivot dating back to October 2025. The reaction suggests buyers remain interested around that support, although the strength and durability of the rebound still need to be evaluated.

Gareth also discussed \$3,500 as a deeper downside scenario if gold loses its current support structure. That level provides a longer-term risk reference rather than a prediction that prices will necessarily decline that far. The immediate question is whether the rebound from \$3,900 can develop into sustained upside momentum.

Silver has also recovered, moving back above \$50 and briefly trading above \$51 during the session discussed. Gareth shared that he purchased approximately \$100,000 worth of physical silver on Friday as part of his longer-term accumulation approach. That disclosure reflects his own positioning and time horizon, which differ from the requirements of a short-term trading strategy.

He also outlined the possibility of silver declining toward \$45, \$40 or even \$35 if precious metals experience a broader correction. For a long-term holder, such weakness may be evaluated differently than it would be by a swing trader managing a defined technical setup. Physical metals involve storage, liquidity and transaction costs, while exchange-traded products have their own structures and risks. The appropriate framework depends on the objective and the risk being taken.

Bitcoin Price Weakness Highlights Divergence From Stocks

Bitcoin is showing a weaker technical profile relative to the broader equity market. Gareth observed that the cryptocurrency's weekend rebound was fading even as selected stock indexes maintained their strength. That relative underperformance suggests buyers have yet to demonstrate the same conviction visible in other risk assets.

Security concerns surrounding digital asset platforms also entered the discussion. Exchange and custody risks remain important considerations for cryptocurrency market participants, although any specific reported breach, attribution or loss amount requires independent verification. Those risks should also be distinguished from the security properties of the underlying Bitcoin network.

For Gareth, the immediate trading consideration is Bitcoin's inability to sustain its rebound. Continued weakness while equities hold support would reinforce the relative-strength divergence. A more constructive outlook would require Bitcoin to stabilize and establish a stronger pattern of buying interest.

Eli Lilly Stock: Doji Candle Raises the Possibility of a Reversal

Eli Lilly (LLY) is another stock drawing Gareth's attention following a strong advance. Its recent price action has been particularly notable against a backdrop of weakness in several high-growth technology names, suggesting capital has continued to favor selected companies outside the AI trade.

Gareth identified a Doji candlestick following the stock's extended rally. A Doji forms when the opening and closing prices are close together, reflecting a session in which neither buyers nor sellers established a decisive advantage. After a substantial advance, that loss of directional momentum can become an early warning that the trend is vulnerable.

The candle alone does not confirm a reversal. Follow-through selling, a break of nearby support or another technical rejection would provide stronger evidence that sellers are gaining control. Conversely, renewed buying that pushes the stock above its recent high would weaken the bearish interpretation.

Gareth also referenced a lower gap-fill area and a previous pivot high as potential downside technical references. Those exact prices should be checked against the chart before publication, as the draft's quoted \$12.90 level appears inconsistent with the stock context. The broader thesis remains that a prolonged rally, followed by indecision near elevated prices, deserves closer attention for a potential reversal.

Technical Analysis Watchlist: Key Market Levels for November 2

Across these markets, Gareth's analysis identifies several decision points that could shape the next phase of price action. Crude oil is testing the strength of its wedge structure following a failed breakout, while the S&P 500 continues to hold a constructive technical posture above 7,480. The Nasdaq's relative weakness introduces a risk that could become more significant if technology stocks continue losing support.

In individual equities, Marriott's \$440 resistance area offers a defined location to evaluate a potential rejection, while Eli Lilly's recent Doji raises questions about the durability of its advance. Gold's reaction from \$3,900 and silver's recovery above \$50 provide additional evidence of how capital is behaving across asset classes.

These levels are reference points for evaluating price behavior, not guarantees of a particular outcome. A failed breakout, a successful support test or a reversal candle becomes more useful when subsequent trading confirms the initial signal. The goal is to identify where the technical thesis strengthens, where it weakens and what would invalidate the original read.

The Bottom Line: Failed Breakouts and Market Divergence Define the Game Plan

Gareth's November 2 market framework centers on a developing contrast between markets holding their technical structure and those showing signs of exhaustion. Oil's failed breakout is an immediate example of how a move above resistance can reverse quickly when buying interest fails to follow through. The S&P 500's ability to defend support, despite weakness in the Nasdaq, presents the other side of that equation.

The coming sessions will test whether these divergences continue. Oil's \$94 support, the S&P 500's 7,480 level and Marriott's \$440 resistance area offer clear locations for evaluating the next moves. The response to those levels will carry more weight in Gareth's technical framework than an isolated headline or a single trading session.

The game plan is to follow the evidence as these setups develop. Respect confirmed support and resistance, recognize when price action changes the thesis and avoid treating projected targets as predetermined outcomes. That discipline remains central to Gareth's approach as markets move through a week of political, economic and earnings catalysts.

This article summarizes market commentary and technical analysis attributed to Gareth Soloway for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute personalized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset. Trading and investing involve risk, including potential loss of principal.