My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 11/14/2025: Semiconductor Overextension Warns of Market Pullback; S&P 6,100 Target

As fear and panic begin to ripple through the stock and crypto markets, many investors are caught off guard. However, for those who follow a disciplined, chart-based approach, the current sell-off was not a surprise, but a high-probability outcome. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, detailed the technical signals that forecasted this pullback and laid out the key levels that will define the next phase of this market correction.

This article delves deeper into the powerful technical predictors that signaled the market top, maps out the likely path for the S&P 500, and explores the psychological discipline required to navigate volatile markets without emotion.

The Predictors: How Charts Signaled the Top

While narratives about AI and data centers swirled, the charts were quietly telling the real story. The most significant predictor of a market top came not from the S&P 500 itself, but from the engine of the bull run: the semiconductor sector. By looking at the Semiconductor ETF (SMH), a clear historical parallel emerged that signaled extreme over-extension.

In 2021, the SMH peaked when it was 102% above its 200-day moving average, an incredible deviation that was followed by a punishing 45% correction. In 2024, the same pattern repeated: the ETF again stretched to 102% above its 200-day moving average, leading to a 40% correction. Recently, the SMH once again tagged that same 102% extension level, making a significant pullback the most probable outcome.

This semiconductor signal was confirmed by the weekly chart of the S&P 500, which pierced the upper boundary of its long-term parallel channel at its recent all-time high. For technical analysts, this was a classic exhaustion signal. These confluences are why a chart-based methodology is so indispensable. As Gareth explained:

"This is why technical analysis, to me, I don't even know how anyone invests in trades without it… All it does is give me a high probability of what's going to happen. There's no certainty, there's no 100% in trading or investing. But I would literally, I mean, you might as well just put a blindfold on me if I'm going to not look at charts to give me guidance."

This approach isn't about finding a crystal ball; it's about using historical data and price patterns to determine whether one should be a net buyer, a net seller, or patiently waiting in cash. The charts provided a clear signal to reduce exposure at the highs.

Mapping the Correction: Key S&P 500 Levels

With a correction now underway—the S&P futures are down another 1% today after yesterday's 1.66% drop—the critical question becomes: how low can it go? Knowing that a pullback is likely is one thing; identifying the key support levels for a significant bounce is the next.

The primary near-term target for this correction can be found by looking at the previous major market high, which occurred just before the tariff-related sell-off. That pivot point now acts as a powerful magnet for price. This level sits in the vicinity of 6,100 to 6,200 on the S&P 500.

From the all-time high, a drop to this zone would represent a total correction of approximately 11%. With the market already down about 3%, this implies another 7% to 8% of potential downside from current levels. However, it's crucial to understand that markets rarely move in a straight line. The "buy the dip" mentality has been deeply ingrained in investors, which will lead to sharp counter-trend rallies along the way.

"We'll go like this, then you'll have a big bounce, then you come down like this, this, and then eventually we flush and then we get a more like a multi-week multi, maybe even a month or two bounce," Gareth noted, describing the likely choppy path downward.

Similarly, the NASDAQ 100 has already closed below a major support level. The key today is confirmation. A close below yesterday's low would confirm the breakdown and shift the market bias strongly to the downside, opening the door for further selling punctuated by bounces.

The Fed's Paradox: Why a Market Correction Might Be Welcome

The market's recent anxiety stems from more than just stretched valuations in the AI sector. A hawkish Federal Reserve, with the odds of a December rate cut now at a mere 50/50, has also been a major headwind. Ironically, the very market correction that is causing so much fear could be exactly what the Fed needs to see before it can pivot.

There is a strange, symbiotic relationship between the stock market and monetary policy. One of the primary drivers of persistent inflation has been the wealth effect created by soaring asset prices. High-net-worth individuals, feeling flush from their portfolios, have continued to spend lavishly, keeping upward pressure on prices.

"The Fed knows this," Gareth stated. "The Fed knows if they can cause a correction in the market, it will bring inflation back towards their target. Then they can actually cut rates. It's kind of weird, right?"

This paradox is central to understanding the current market dynamics. A 5% to 10% decline in the stock market would effectively do some of the Fed's inflation-fighting work for them by curbing the wealth effect. This would, in turn, give them the justification to deliver the rate cuts the market has been craving. For a sustainable bottom to form, the VIX, or "fear index," likely needs to spike into the mid-30s, signaling that palpable fear has returned.

When Hype Fades: A Look at Retail Favorites

This correction is hitting the market's most crowded and hyped-up names the hardest. These are the stocks that dominated social media conversations, drawing in legions of retail investors near their peaks.

A prime example is Rigetti Computing (RGTI). In just one month, from October 15th to November 14th, the stock has plummeted 60%. This is a painful but essential lesson in risk management.

"This is what drives me nuts about the hype that people get exposed to in social media," Gareth lamented. "Because social media had people running into this stock when it was $45, $50, $55 per share. When in reality, it was so extended and there's so much risk versus the minor reward you can get."

A logic-based investor avoids chasing these parabolic moves, understanding that the risk of a 60% drawdown far outweighs the potential for marginal further gains. Other retail favorites are also showing major signs of stress:

• NVIDIA (NVDA): As the largest company in the world, its chart is paramount. It is currently trading below a major trendline at around $181.00 USD. A daily close below this line would be a significant bearish development.
• Robinhood (HOOD): The stock has broken down and is trading at $115.00 USD. The charts point to a near-term target of $101.00 USD, where a major gap needs to be filled.
• Palantir (PLTR): After hammering on a key support level, a breakdown is threatening. A confirmed break would target the next major support level at $152.25 USD.

As fear intensifies, a percentage of retail holders will inevitably panic and sell, which can accelerate the downside in these concentrated names.

Pivotal Levels: Navigating Crypto, Gold, and Silver

The chart-based approach provides clarity across all asset classes, and the current volatility is creating major tests of key levels in cryptocurrencies and precious metals.

Bitcoin has executed the bearish scenario perfectly. After calling for a pullback, Gareth identified the $94,000 to $95,000 USD zone as the primary target. Today, Bitcoin pierced that level, hitting a low of $94,455 USD on Coinbase, and he took a small long position for a bounce. This price zone represents a massive confluence of support. A confirmed break below this level in the future would be a major warning sign, targeting a deeper correction toward the $73,000 to $75,000 USD zone.

In precious metals, discipline has paid off handsomely. Yesterday, the game plan highlighted the double top in silver, which coincided with major weekly trendline resistance. Despite being a long-term bull, Gareth shorted the level based on the charts. The result was a massive dump in price. The same principle applied to gold, which failed at a key battleground level and has since dropped $200 USD from its high of $4,250 USD.

"I'm a huge long-term bull on silver and on gold, huge," Gareth clarified. "But it doesn't mean I'm just going to be like, oh, let me ignore it when it hits resistance because I don't want to believe it could ever pull back. What sense does that make?"

This is the essence of objective trading: separating long-term conviction from short-term probabilities and acting on what the chart says, not what you hope it will do.

Conclusion: The Liberating Power of Probabilities

Navigating a market correction can be emotionally taxing. The constant barrage of news, social media hype, and fear-mongering is designed to provoke an emotional response. The only antidote is a disciplined, logical, and probability-based framework. By relying on the charts, a trader can filter out the noise and focus solely on high-probability setups.

"I want to be a robot in that way," Gareth said. "I want to be a pure, simple robot. The chart tells me based on probabilities, I execute the trade. Don't care if I'm going long or short, frankly, I'm just going in the direction that's the most likely outcome."

This mindset is liberating. It removes the burden of being "right" and replaces it with the process of executing a strategy with a positive expectancy over time. The charts warned of this correction. They are now providing the roadmap for potential bounce levels and future targets. In scary markets, this guidance is invaluable. The key is to listen to the charts, respect the levels, and maintain the discipline to act without emotion.