My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 12/16/2025: Institutional Selling and Technical Breakdowns Signal Market Slide

The latest jobs report has sent a ripple of uncertainty through the markets. After an initial pop on a better-than-expected headline number, sellers quickly emerged, pushing indices back into the red. This price action confirms the cautious tone set by Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, in this morning's My Trading Game Plan. While many hope for a quiet holiday float into the year's end, a host of technical sell signals and troubling institutional behavior suggest the market is in a precarious position.

As Gareth noted, "This market is hanging on by a thread and again the question I have is can the Santa Claus kind of float with light volume into year end, keep this market up before it collapses or does it just start to collapse into year end? Either way, we're going lower based on technical analysis." This sets the stage for a critical period where technical levels and investor psychology will clash.

Institutional Selling Paints a Grim Picture

The November jobs report showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.6% to 5.1%. While the market’s initial reaction was positive, the subsequent reversal is part of a larger, more concerning pattern. For several days now, the market has seen significant selling pressure right at the opening bell, a hallmark of institutional distribution.

This isn't retail panic selling; this is large-scale, methodical selling by "big money." As Gareth highlighted, this pattern of opening higher only to be met with an hour or more of intense selling pressure is unusual, especially heading into the typically bullish holiday season. "What does that tell us? It tells us that big money is very nervous about this market right now."

This institutional nervousness is a critical leading indicator. While retail investors might be swayed by holiday narratives or the hope for a "Santa Claus rally," the actions of large funds and institutions speak volumes. They are using periods of morning strength as an opportunity to offload positions, signaling a deep-seated lack of confidence in the market's ability to hold these elevated levels. This dynamic creates a dangerous environment where any rally attempt is likely to be sold into, capping the market's upside potential.

The Technical Ceiling for Major Indices

The bearish sentiment isn't just based on institutional flows; it's deeply rooted in the long-term technical charts of the major indices. The S&P 500's weekly chart reveals a market that has run into a formidable wall of resistance. A parallel channel that has defined every major high and low for the past five years is once again capping the upside. After a strong multi-week bounce, the index is showing clear signs of stalling and curling over at this upper boundary, suggesting the path of least resistance is now lower.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) confirms this weakness. The QQQ chart shows a classic technical breakdown pattern. A beautiful, long-standing trendline that had provided support was decisively broken. The subsequent rally was nothing more than a retrace to the scene of the crime, a move that lured in unsuspecting bulls before the rollover began. With the Nasdaq weak again today, the chart is signaling that the sellers are back in control. The first major support level is a good distance lower, at a confluence of a gap fill and a prior pivot low, leaving significant room for a decline.

The only potential saving grace for the bulls is the calendar. "The only positive I have is that the light volume around Christmas and New Year's may keep the selling to a minimum and not let the market fall too sharply," Gareth admitted. However, he was quick to point out the weakness in this argument: "That's really not even a positive. If you're reaching for positives of light volume being the reason the market can float… that's not a great catalyst long term."

Macro Storm Clouds: A Worrisome Echo of 2008

Beyond the index charts, two major macroeconomic indicators are flashing warning signs about the health of the U.S. economy and its currency. The U.S. Dollar is approaching a make-or-break trendline that dates back to the financial crisis lows of 2008-2009. A confirmed break below this line in 2026 could trigger a cascade of selling, leading to a very poor year for the dollar.

Simultaneously, the 10-year Treasury yield remains stubbornly high. This is particularly alarming given the Federal Reserve's recent actions, including rate cuts and a form of quantitative easing through the purchase of short-term T-bills. Ordinarily, such dovish policies would push yields lower. The fact that they are holding firm indicates that global investors are growing wary of America's fiscal irresponsibility.

This situation has a disturbing parallel to the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis. "Just like what we saw in 08-09, the financial crisis, you know, the ridiculous lending, the reckless lending that we saw until the markets really caused people to take it seriously, it would have continued," Gareth explained. He fears the same dynamic is playing out with government debt. Politicians are unlikely to address the nation's fiscal issues until the markets force their hand through a crisis. The resilient 10-year yield is an early warning that the bond market is losing patience.

Pockets of Strength: Tesla and Oracle Setups

Even in a nervous market, opportunities for disciplined traders exist. Tesla (TSLA) stands out as a beacon of relative strength. The stock broke above a key trendline from a wedge pattern yesterday, a significant technical development. However, a breakout requires confirmation. "We need to see a secondary close above basically $482. If we get that, this is a confirmed breakout. And you would assume it wouldn't just go to the all time high of around $490, but it should go above $500." Fueled by news of its fully autonomous robo-taxis, Tesla is a chart to watch closely for this potential confirmed breakout.

On the other side of the spectrum, a compelling opportunity is forming in a beaten-down name. Oracle (ORCL) is steadily declining toward a major support level around $176.00 USD. This isn't just a random price; it's a confluence of powerful technical factors. A move to $176 would fill a major open gap on the chart and, perhaps more importantly, represent a 50% drop from its highs. This round number is psychologically powerful for investors. As Gareth noted, "I'm buying Oracle at a 50 percent discount. That's pretty powerful to think about." This confluence makes the $176 level a high-probability zone for a significant bounce trade.

Cracks Appearing in Mega-Caps

While Tesla shows potential, many of its mega-cap tech peers are exhibiting signs of weakness, confirming the theme of money rotating out of market leaders.

• NVIDIA (NVDA): The chart continues to form a bear flag, a pattern that typically resolves to the downside. The technical target remains the support level around $150.00 USD.
• Microsoft (MSFT): The stock is testing a critical trendline near $467.00 USD. A break below this level would open the door to the next major support at $453.00 USD.
• Robinhood (HOOD): This chart serves as a textbook example of technical analysis in action. After breaking a multi-touch ascending trendline, the stock retraced perfectly to the breakdown point—the "scene of the crime"—where it was met with heavy resistance and rejected lower. This classic pattern confirms the sellers are in firm control.

These charts illustrate that the institutional selling seen at the market open is having a tangible effect on the stocks that have led the market for years. Traders should be wary of these former leaders as they show clear signs of distribution.

Commodities in Crisis: Energy Markets Plunge

The energy sector is experiencing extreme volatility, with both oil and natural gas in a state of near-collapse. Oil has broken below a key level in its cup-and-handle consolidation pattern. A daily close below this support would be a major technical failure, signaling a probable move down to $50.00 USD per barrel. The catalyst appears to be renewed speculation about a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could flood the market with Russian oil.

The move in natural gas is even more dramatic. "We are now down from our highs, which was on December 5th. We are now down thirty one point five percent on natural gas," Gareth stated. "That's about as close to a crash in natural gas as you can get." This staggering 31.5% decline in just eight trading days is a testament to the panic selling in the sector. Despite the plunge, Gareth is slowly accumulating a position, viewing the extreme sell-off as a long-term opportunity.

Conclusion: Navigate with Caution and Precision

The market is sending a clear message: proceed with caution. The combination of institutional selling, bearish index charts, and troubling macroeconomic signals creates a high-risk environment. The hope for a light-volume "Santa Claus float" is being challenged by the reality of technical breakdowns and nervous big money.

For traders, this is not a time for broad, passive bullishness. It is a time for precision and discipline. Opportunities exist, but they are specific and require careful execution—like waiting for confirmation on Tesla's breakout above $482 or patiently anticipating Oracle's test of the high-probability support at $176. Meanwhile, the weakness in former market leaders like NVIDIA and the outright collapse in energy prices serve as stark reminders of the risks present. As we head into the final weeks of the year, letting the charts, not the holiday narrative, guide your decisions will be paramount.