Trading The Close Market Recap - 01/13/2026: Micron Parabolic Rally, Metals Hit Long-Term Resistance, Bitcoin at $95K

In today's edition of the Trading The Close show, guest host Lawton Ho from Verified Investing stepped in to deliver a masterclass in technical analysis, breaking down critical inflection points across a wide range of asset classes. From parabolic moves in the semiconductor space to multi-year trendlines in precious metals and brewing patterns in cryptocurrency, the markets are presenting traders with a series of high-stakes setups. This article will expand on the key levels and strategic insights shared on the show, providing deeper context for navigating these pivotal charts.

Micron's Parabolic Rise and the Art of Fading

The semiconductor sector continues to be the epicenter of market momentum, and no stock exemplifies this better than Micron (MU). After an absolutely staggering run, the stock is charting new all-time highs on a near-daily basis. As Lawton highlighted, this presents a unique challenge for technical analysts.

“From the Liberation Day lows up until basically the highs of today… a casual 476% move to the upside. Now, here's the problem with shorting things and playing things and looking for resistance at stocks at all-time highs. It's a little difficult to narrow down these levels. You don't have previous price action to give you clear levels of resistance.”

Without historical price pivots to serve as guideposts, traders must turn to other methods like trendline analysis. By connecting the previous all-time highs from April and June of 2024, a clear ascending trendline emerges, projecting a potential resistance zone approximately 6% higher, in the $356 to $360 USD range. This demonstrates how past peaks, even when surpassed, can still inform the trajectory of future price action.

However, the most nuanced part of the analysis was the distinction between a long-term bias and a short-term trading strategy. While the chart appears overbought and favors an eventual pullback, this doesn't preclude opportunistic bullish trades. Lawton identified several key support levels where a day trader could look to capitalize on a bounce:

• $312 USD: A potential 7-8% pullback from current levels.
• $300 USD: A major psychological support level.
• $285 USD: The location of a previous price gap.

This dual perspective is a hallmark of professional trading. It involves holding a primary thesis (Micron is overextended and a poor swing trade buy at these levels) while remaining flexible enough to execute a contradictory short-term trade (buying a sharp dip for a quick bounce). This requires immense discipline, as it’s easy to let a day trade turn into an unplanned swing trade if the bounce doesn't materialize as expected. The key is having predefined targets and risk parameters for each distinct strategy.

Precious Metals Testing Generational Trendlines

While technology stocks capture headlines with their explosive gains, precious metals are quietly approaching make-or-break resistance levels that have been years in the making. Both gold and silver are testing the upper boundaries of massive trend structures, offering compelling setups for traders with a keen eye for long-term charts.

For gold, a powerful upsloping trendline connects the all-time high from October with the more recent highs from yesterday and today. This line has acted as a clear ceiling, with price being rejected multiple times. A parallel channel drawn from this trendline suggests that if this resistance holds, a move back toward the lower end of the channel is the path of least resistance. Lawton identified a precise area for a potential short entry:

“A swing trade at the top of this upsloping trend line over here around $4,640 could be a good level to enter gold for a short.”

Silver’s setup is even more dramatic. Switching to a weekly chart reveals a massive, multi-year trendline connecting the highs from 2019 and August 2020. Today’s price action came within half a percent of touching this formidable resistance. A potential entry for tomorrow would be near the $89.50 USD level. The significance of a level derived from a weekly chart spanning over half a decade cannot be overstated. These long-term structures often produce more significant and reliable reactions than patterns formed on shorter timeframes.

The crucial takeaway here is the warning that accompanied this analysis: shorting assets at or near all-time highs is an inherently risky strategy. While the technical case for a pullback is strong, momentum can carry prices further than seems rational. A disciplined approach requires using a clearly defined stop-loss to protect against a powerful breakout.

Bitcoin's Pressure Cooker at $95,000

The cryptocurrency market is building energy for a potentially explosive move. Bitcoin, the market leader, is consolidating within a classic technical pattern while hammering against a key psychological and technical level. The price action has formed a well-defined parallel channel, which currently resembles a bear flag—a pattern that typically resolves to the downside.

However, the price is simultaneously pressing against the $95,000 level repeatedly. Lawton provided a brilliant analogy to describe this price action:

“If you think about it like a… cup of water where you're filling up the top of it… once it gets to the top… it won't fall immediately… You kind of have a small bubble where it's just sitting there slowly getting taller and taller. And eventually when that bubble pops, all the water… starts falling down from the sides. And I think the same thing is true about this Bitcoin chart.”

This illustrates the immense pressure building at resistance. While the bear flag suggests a move lower, a sustained break above $95,000 could unleash a torrent of buying pressure. The analysis laid out a clear road map for a potential breakout: a test of the $100,000 psychological milestone, followed by a measured move target near $105,000, which also coincides with the top of the parallel channel.

Ethereum is exhibiting a similar, though slightly different, pattern. It has formed a bearish pennant, a type of wedge that also favors a downside resolution. Yet, like Bitcoin, it contains the seeds of a powerful bullish reversal. A breakout above its downsloping trendline would negate the bearish pattern and open the door to higher targets. The first key resistance is the pivot high from December 10th. A move above that could propel Ethereum 8% higher to the $3,400 resistance zone, with a further target at $3,600. This highlights a critical concept: chart patterns define probabilities, not certainties, and traders must always be prepared for a pattern to fail and reverse.

Financials Face Macro and Earnings Headwinds

The financial sector is currently navigating a gauntlet of challenges, from disappointing earnings to political pressure. JPMorgan (JPM) provided a stark example today, getting "crushed" after missing on both earnings and revenue. The stock broke below a beautiful upsloping parallel channel, a bearish technical event that suggests the selling may have just begun. A further 10% decline to fill the gap near $280 USD is now a distinct possibility.

With Bank of America (BAC) set to report earnings tomorrow, traders are watching to see if the weakness is sector-wide. While technical patterns can be rendered irrelevant by an earnings surprise, Lawton provided key levels to watch. Resistance sits at the double top near $57.50, while a break of support could target the pivot low just under $51.

Adding another layer of complexity, Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) both experienced significant intraday volatility after former President Trump stated he would seek to cap credit card interest rates at 10%. This news sent both stocks tumbling before they staged a partial recovery.

• Visa is now testing a critical upsloping trendline. A break below this line could trigger an 8% slide toward the major psychological and technical level at $300.
• MasterCard has a similar trendline, though it sits slightly lower, below the $530 level.

This situation is a perfect case study in how headline risk can impact fundamentally strong companies. While the implementation of such a policy would be complex and lengthy, the market reacts instantly to the threat. The subsequent bounce also shows how traders can capitalize on overreactions, as Lawton noted he day-traded Visa for a long position off the lows, understanding that the immediate fundamental impact was minimal.

Conclusion: Navigating a Market of Trendlines

Today's market analysis reveals a powerful, unifying theme: the importance of trendlines and parallel channels in identifying critical decision points. From Micron's parabolic ascent to gold's multi-year ceiling and JPMorgan's channel breakdown, these simple lines on a chart are defining the battlegrounds between bulls and bears across every major asset class.

The current landscape demands a multi-faceted approach. It requires the foresight to identify long-term resistance on a weekly silver chart, the discipline to trade against a primary trend for a day trade in Micron, and the adaptability to understand that a bearish pattern in Bitcoin could resolve in a powerful bullish breakout.

As we move through the week, these levels will be key. Whether it's a breakdown in the financials, a breakout in crypto, or a reversal in precious metals, the charts have provided a clear roadmap. By respecting these technical boundaries, managing risk with stop-losses, and understanding the unique strategy required for each setup, traders can position themselves to capitalize on the volatility that lies ahead.