Trading The Close Market Recap - 01/15/2026: Semiconductors Fade, Bitcoin Tests $95K, Gold & Silver Face Critical Resistance

In a session defined by initial euphoria giving way to midday skepticism, the semiconductor sector took center stage, only to share the spotlight with powerful moves in precious metals and critical tests for cryptocurrencies. In this afternoon's Trading The Close show, Lawton Ho from Verified Investing dissected the price action, revealing a recurring theme across multiple asset classes: the battle between bullish momentum and bearish technical patterns. The day's trading also served as a masterclass in patience, highlighting why the highest probability trades often come to those who wait for confirmation rather than chasing the initial move.

Today’s analysis dives deeper into these key market developments, from the intraday reversal in chip stocks to the critical support and resistance levels that could dictate the next major trend in gold, silver, and Bitcoin. We’ll also explore the textbook trading setups forming in assets like Ethereum and Reddit, reinforcing the disciplined strategies that separate consistent traders from the crowd.

The Semiconductor Surge Hits a Wall of Profit-Taking

The morning started with a bang for semiconductor stocks, fueled by a potent combination of strong earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and news of a massive infrastructure investment by Taiwan. TSM gapped up at the open, soaring 5% higher and continuing to push another 2.5% in the early session. This bullish sentiment spilled over into the broader sector, with Applied Materials (AMAT) rocketing up 9% at the open, crushing its previous all-time highs.

However, this initial strength proved to be fleeting. By the end of the day, a clear pattern of profit-taking had emerged. TSM, despite its strong start, saw a significant sell-off, closing the day up a more modest 4.5%. Micron (MU) experienced an even starker reversal, opening 3.5% higher only to close down over 2.5% from its opening price. AMAT also saw a 2.5% fade from its morning highs. This intraday reversal across the sector tells a compelling story about market psychology. As Lawton noted, retail traders may have concluded that it was either "A, time to take profits, or B, this isn't bullish enough for me to justify the price that these kinds of semiconductors are trading at."

This dynamic is common in sectors that have experienced powerful runs to all-time highs. While the fundamental news (strong earnings, government investment) provides the initial catalyst, the elevated valuations create an environment ripe for profit-taking. Traders and investors who have been riding the trend see the gap-up open as a prime opportunity to lock in gains, creating selling pressure that can overwhelm the initial wave of buying.

For TSM, the key technical level to watch now is the upsloping trendline it just broke above. The classic principle of "resistance turning into support" is now in play. If TSM can hold above this line, the bullish case remains intact. However, a fall back below it would signal that the breakout was false, potentially leading to a deeper pullback into the mid-$300s.

Gold and Silver: Bullish Ascent Meets Bearish Patterns

The precious metals complex continues its impressive climb, but the charts are flashing cautionary signals that traders must respect. Both gold and silver are trading within technical patterns that are historically bearish, creating a fascinating tension between momentum and structure.

Gold is advancing steadily within a clean, upsloping parallel channel. The price is now approaching the top of this channel, a level that Lawton identified on Tuesday as a critical resistance zone. This is the "make or break it time" for gold. A decisive breakout above this channel could validate the calls for a move towards $5,000 USD. Conversely, a rejection from this upper trendline could trigger a significant pullback as traders who have profited from the recent run-up begin to take profits.

Silver’s chart is even more dramatic. It has "absolutely demolished" a key resistance level formed by connecting previous pivot highs. Despite this show of strength, it remains confined within its own upsloping parallel channel. This presents a classic technical conundrum. While upsloping channels are typically resolved to the downside, they can persist for extended periods, allowing the price to grind significantly higher before a breakdown occurs.

As Lawton explained, a bearish resolution requires price to break below the bottom trendline of the channel. Until that happens, the uptrend can continue. "You could see it slowly inch up, heading towards that potential $100 level that I know a lot of people are watching." This highlights a crucial aspect of technical analysis: a bearish pattern is not a signal to short immediately. Rather, it provides a clear framework with defined levels of support and resistance to manage risk and identify a potential trend change when, and if, it occurs.

Bitcoin's Critical Test: Is $95,000 Support or a Bull Trap?

Bitcoin has provided traders with a textbook example of resistance turning into support, but it has also set the stage for a potential bull trap. The cryptocurrency remains in a broader bear flag pattern—another upsloping parallel channel—but recently achieved a significant milestone by breaking above the key $95,000 resistance level. After pushing as high as $98,000, Bitcoin has pulled back to retest this breakout zone.

We are now seeing price bounce off the $95,000 level, confirming its new role as support. As long as Bitcoin can remain above this level and the midline of the parallel channel, the path is clear for a continued move higher, potentially toward the measured move target of $105,000 from a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern.

However, a more sinister scenario looms. Should Bitcoin fail to hold this level and close back below $95,000, it would trigger a classic bull trap. This pattern is designed to do exactly what its name implies: trap bullish investors. The breakout above a key psychological level like $95,000 creates a sense of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), luring in buyers who believe the next major leg up has begun. As Lawton vividly described the setup: "Luring investors and saying, hey, it's going back above six figures. This is your time to buy, time to buy, time to buy, only for the rug to be pulled and then potentially test the bottom of this upsloping parallel channel." This makes the $95,000 level the undisputed line in the sand for Bitcoin in the near term.

Ethereum Breaks Out: A Textbook Case for Patient Entries

While Bitcoin tests a critical level, Ethereum has already staged a breakout from its bearish pennant pattern. This move presents a perfect case study in one of the most powerful and disciplined entry strategies: waiting for the retrace.

After a trendline is broken, amateur traders often chase the initial momentum, buying into the move as it's already underway. This can lead to poor entry prices and higher risk. The professional approach, as highlighted in the show, is to wait for the price to retrace back to the trendline it just broke. That former resistance line now has a high probability of acting as support.

For Ethereum, this creates a potential long entry right around the $3,200 level. A trader could enter there, placing a stop-loss just below the trendline to define their risk. This specific setup offers a compelling risk/reward profile, with a potential 5% risk for a 10% to 14% move to the upside. This patient, calculated approach is a hallmark of consistent trading. As Lawton emphasized, "You guys know how much I love these retraces as I've talked about it so much." It’s a strategy that prioritizes high-probability setups over the excitement of chasing momentum.

Energy Divergence: Natural Gas Eyes a Bounce While Oil Tests Support

The energy sector is presenting a split personality. Natural gas, despite trading in a technically bearish upsloping parallel channel, appears deeply oversold and may be poised for a significant bounce. The pattern has formed near the lows of the chart, and price has repeatedly found support at the bottom of the channel. Given how beaten down the asset is, a relief rally back to the channel's midline seems plausible, which would represent an impressive 50% move from current levels. However, should the channel break to the downside, support doesn't appear until the $2.10 level.

Meanwhile, crude oil (USO) continues to slide, falling another 2% today. It is now approaching a key support level around $70 USD. This area represents a confluence of factors that could attract buyers, making it a prime candidate for at least a short-term bounce or a day trade. The chart shows that oil recently failed to confirm a breakout above a downsloping trendline, falling back within its bearish structure. The $70 level will be the next major test for oil bulls.

Patience Over Panic: Analyzing the Reddit Sell-Off

Shares of Reddit (RDDT) plummeted nearly 11% today on news related to the suspension of teen accounts in Australia. The sharp drop caused the stock to break down decisively from an upsloping parallel channel. For many traders, such a dramatic move might trigger an impulsive reaction to short the stock, hoping to catch a falling knife.

However, the analysis from the show advocated for a much more prudent approach: patience. Shorting a stock after an 11% single-day decline is a low-probability trade, as it is often susceptible to a sharp snap-back rally. The higher-probability strategy is to wait for the market to provide more information. This could come in the form of a bearish consolidation pattern, like a bear flag, or the classic retrace entry. A short could be considered if the price rallies back up to test the bottom of the broken channel (former support now acting as resistance), providing a much clearer and more favorable risk/reward entry point.

Conclusion: Navigating a Market of Nuance and Opportunity

Today's market action served as a powerful reminder that headline moves rarely tell the whole story. The initial strength in semiconductors quickly faded, revealing underlying caution at all-time highs. In precious metals and crypto, powerful uptrends are running directly into bearish technical patterns, setting the stage for critical inflection points.

Across all these assets, the lessons of disciplined trading ring true. Success isn't found in chasing parabolic moves or reacting emotionally to news. It's found in identifying key levels, understanding the psychology of patterns like bull traps, and having the patience to wait for high-probability setups like the retrace entry. Whether it's holding off on shorting Reddit or waiting for Bitcoin to prove itself at $95,000, the disciplined approach provides the edge needed to navigate a complex and ever-changing market landscape.