Trading The Close Market Recap - 11/18/2025: Microsoft's 25-Year Trendline & Market Support Tests — QQQ, AMZN, NET, BTC

In a market session defined by sharp declines and critical tests of support, the true value of technical analysis comes to the forefront. When a trendline drawn from the peak of the dot-com bubble 25 years ago dictates today's price action, it serves as a powerful reminder that markets have a long and precise memory. In this afternoon's Trading The Close, Pro Trader Drew Dosek from Verified Investing broke down these pivotal moments, revealing how historical levels are creating high-probability trade setups right now.

A 25-Year Echo in Microsoft's Chart

One of the most remarkable technical events of the day occurred in Microsoft, a stock that found its footing on a line stretching back a quarter of a century. This isn't just a random occurrence; it's a testament to the enduring power of technical analysis and the market's collective memory. The trendline, originating from the pre-dot-com bubble highs of 1999 and connected through a 2024 pivot, provided a precise level for traders today.

After breaking out above this line in June, Microsoft finally retraced to what Drew calls "the scene of the crime." Today, the stock plunged below the line intraday, only to be bought back up, demonstrating the level's significance. However, the battle is far from over. The daily chart has now formed a bearish consolidation pattern known as a bear flag. If this pattern resolves to the downside, the first stop could be support at $474.98, with a larger target near $450.12. The key breakdown level to watch is $491.14.

The profound lesson here is the universal applicability of technical principles across timeframes. As Drew passionately explained:

"When I draw a trendline from 25 years ago and I used it for a day trade today, are you kidding me? This stuff is amazing. These are magical trend lines… trusting the trend lines, trusting the probability that made us money today. Something from 25 years ago. Crazy stuff."

This single example encapsulates a core trading philosophy: historical price levels are not arbitrary. They represent significant psychological and financial battlegrounds where supply and demand previously shifted. When price returns to these areas, a similar battle often ensues, providing traders with a defined area of risk and a high-probability edge.

Major Indices at Key Inflection Points

The theme of testing critical long-term support extends to the broader market indices. The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) is currently facing a moment of truth at a trendline that dates back to March 2022. This line provided resistance in August before the market broke through. Now, after three significant weekly down candles, the index has returned to test this breakout level from above. This is a classic technical pattern, but the context matters. The selling pressure appears much stronger this time compared to the last test in October, raising questions about whether this support will hold. If it fails, the next major support level to watch is 581.64.

The semiconductor sector, a market leader for much of the year, is showing more definitive weakness. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has now confirmed a breakdown below the 50% median line of its parallel channel. With this support gone, the next logical target for sellers is the low from October 10th, right around the $325 level. This area is expected to provide solid support and could generate a significant bounce if tested.

This analysis comes with a crucial calendar-based caveat: the holiday season. Drew reminded viewers to anticipate a shift in market dynamics:

"We've got the holidays coming, we've got Thanksgiving coming. You know what happens during that time frame? A lot of major institutions step away… be anticipating lighter volume for the holiday week and Thanksgiving, but then selling and institutions will reemerge the first two weeks of December."

This often leads to a "light float up" during the low-volume Thanksgiving week. If such a drift occurs, a potential upside target for the SMH would be a retest of the broken 50% parallel line from below, currently sitting at $344.29.

The Cloudflare Anomaly: A Case Study in Market Psychology

Nowhere was the interplay between news and technicals more apparent today than in Cloudflare (NET). The company experienced a massive, multi-hour outage that took millions of websites offline—a seemingly catastrophic event for a web infrastructure company. Pre-market trading reflected this sentiment, with the stock down over 7%.

The logical expectation was for a continued sell-off at the market open. Instead, the exact opposite happened. In the first 10 minutes of trading, buyers stepped in with overwhelming force, driving the stock from a low near $187 all the way to $200. Why? Because the pre-market panic pushed the price directly into a major consolidation zone—an area where a large volume of shares had previously been bought. The investors who owned the stock at these prices were not sellers; they were defenders. They saw the dip as an opportunity to add to their positions at a level they already deemed valuable.

This event is a masterclass in why technical levels can often override news-driven sentiment. While the headlines were terrible, the price had reached a point where the existing supply/demand dynamic was simply more powerful. For traders looking ahead, this event has established a clear support level around $187. However, a more substantial swing trading opportunity may lie lower, at the 50% parallel channel line around $170. A sharp drop into that level could provide a high-probability setup for a bounce back toward the $204-$234 range.

Amazon's Warning Shot and What Comes Next

While Cloudflare defied its bad news, Amazon (AMZN) succumbed to technical pressure, falling a steep 4.43%. This decline was not a surprise to chart watchers. The sell-off was foreshadowed by a "topping tail" candle on November 3rd, a clear sign of rejection at higher prices. That rejection occurred at a long-term trendline connecting the highs from July 2021 and February 2025.

Since that peak, Amazon has given back all of its impressive post-earnings gains. Today's drop was particularly damaging as it resulted in a close below the 50% median line of its parallel channel, a key technical support level. For the bearish case to continue, sellers will need to see a follow-up day of selling tomorrow.

However, the chart also reveals a potential lifeline for the bulls. An inclining trendline, which has been forming since April, is approaching from below. This line could provide the next major support for Amazon around $219.70. This creates a clear roadmap: a break of today's low would target that trendline, which could then serve as the launching point for a bounce back to retest the broken 50% parallel from below. This intricate dance between support and resistance levels allows traders to anticipate potential turning points with precision.

Commodities and Crypto: A Mixed Bag of Setups

The commodity and cryptocurrency markets are presenting a diverse set of technical pictures, offering opportunities for traders with different biases.

• Bitcoin: The digital asset is showing impressive resilience. On its weekly chart, Bitcoin executed a perfect bounce off the 50% median line of a massive parallel channel that encompasses price action since before 2022. After dipping below $90,000, it has since rebounded, holding this critical support. For the bullish momentum to continue, holding this 50% parallel is paramount, with the first upside resistance target at $97,736.
• Gold & Silver: Precious metals are diverging. Gold has broken down through an inclining trendline, which now acts as resistance at $4,099. Further selling pressure would target the next support level at $3,918.52. Silver, on the other hand, is still holding onto a similar inclining trendline. This line has been tested three times, and as Drew notes, the next hit becomes a "coin flip chance" of breaking. Bulls want to see silver rally away from this line, as a break would open the door to support at $46.79.
• Energy Markets: U.S. Oil remains in a bearish posture, controlled by a massive red candle from a previous session. The high of that candle at $61.06, combined with nearby resistance at $61.40, creates what Drew describes as a "double-layered door" that will be very difficult to break through. Until price can close above that zone, probabilities favor more downside. Natural Gas presents a starkly different picture. It executed a perfect test of its support zone, dipping to $4.42 before finding strong demand. For bulls, the ideal scenario is for the price to consolidate above this support, building energy for a potential move toward the next major target at the $4.92 pivot high.

Conclusion: Trusting the Map the Market Provides

As we head into a holiday week and prepare for NVIDIA's pivotal earnings report, today's market action serves as a crucial lesson in technical discipline. From a 25-year-old trendline on Microsoft to a massive channel on Bitcoin, the charts are providing a clear map of significant support and resistance levels. These are not just lines on a screen; they are visual representations of market psychology and order flow.

The setups in Cloudflare, Amazon, and the broader indices demonstrate that price action at these key levels can often override short-term news flow. By identifying these zones in advance, traders can move from a reactive to a proactive mindset, waiting patiently for the market to come to their price rather than chasing momentum. Whether you are a bull or a bear, the discipline of trusting these levels provides the probability-based edge necessary for long-term success in the markets.