My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 01/08/2026: Markets Coil for Breakout, Tech Risk, Defense Manipulation, Silver Breakdown

As the major indices coil tighter within powerful technical patterns, the market is building pressure for a significant move. While we wait for that directional break, a firestorm of controversy is brewing around blatant market manipulation, and specific stocks are reaching make-or-break technical levels. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, cut through the noise to deliver a masterclass on chart analysis, psychological discipline, and the importance of calling out injustice in the markets.

The Great Squeeze: Markets Coiling for a Breakout

Across the board, the story of the major indices is one of compression. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are both caught in classic wedge patterns, signaling that a period of explosive volatility is on the horizon. As Gareth explained, this technical formation is a battle between buyers and sellers in an ever-narrowing range.

"Remember how wedges work. Volatility is greatest and it starts to tighten more and more and more until you get to a head and eventually price is squeezed either to the upside or the downside… think about it like a toothpaste tube where you're squeezing it and squeezing it and squeezing it. And at some point, the pressure becomes so massive that it just shoots out."

For the S&P 500, this up-sloping wedge, combined with negative RSI divergences, gives a slight probabilistic edge to the downside. However, the ultimate confirmation will only come with a definitive break of the pattern's trendlines.

The Nasdaq 100 presents a fascinating case study in real-time. Yesterday, it appeared poised for a breakout above a key trendline, only to be pulled back by sellers, closing precisely on that line of contention. This puts the tech-heavy index in a precarious position. A successful breakout would target the double top resistance, while a breakdown could trigger a significant correction. The first level of support would be the pivot area around 581 on the QQQ, with a more substantial drop potentially revisiting the all-time highs from 2024.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is flashing its own warning signals. After recently making a new all-time high and kissing the psychological 50,000 level, it reversed sharply yesterday, dropping 466 points. The catalyst for this reversal was a powerful, multi-year trendline connecting lows from October 2023, August 2024, and January 2025. This precise rejection from major resistance suggests the Dow could be setting up for a more significant pullback.

"So Freaking Shady": A Spotlight on Blatant Manipulation

Beyond the technicals, Gareth unleashed a passionate critique of what he described as blatant stock manipulation originating from the highest levels of government. The focus was on the defense sector, where a sequence of social media posts created extreme volatility and, for those in the know, a massive profit opportunity.

The timeline is alarming. Yesterday at 2:00 PM, a social media post from the President attacked defense contractors for stock buybacks, dividends, and overcharging the government. Predictably, stocks like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman tanked on the news. Then, immediately after the market closed at 4:00 PM, a second post emerged, calling for a 50% increase in defense spending from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion USD. The stocks that had been crushed just hours earlier ripped higher in after-hours trading.

"You can't tell me that within two hours that decision was changed, meaning that you go on the attack on these companies and then you didn't know ahead of time that you were going to say that… All I know is how it looks and it looks so freaking shady that it is ridiculous."

Gareth stressed that this critique is non-partisan, having called out similar issues with previous administrations. The core issue is one of fairness and a level playing field. Such actions create a two-tiered market: one for the connected elite who can profit from this manufactured volatility, and another for everyday investors who are left holding the bag. This incident serves as a stark reminder that while charts and logic should prevail, traders must always be aware of external forces that can override technicals in the short term.

The Power of the Parallel Channel

While the broader market consolidates, individual stocks are providing textbook examples of technical patterns at work. One of the most powerful patterns Gareth highlighted is the parallel channel, which has recently dictated major moves in several key names.

The most compelling case study is the divergence between Western Digital (WDC) and Sandisk. Both are memory and storage chip companies operating in the same sector. Two days ago, WDC surged directly into the upper boundary of its parallel channel and was immediately rejected, falling 9% yesterday. Sandisk, which was flat to positive during WDC's decline, has not yet reached its own channel. It is now approaching that critical resistance level around the $362 mark. This setup provides a live test: will Sandisk suffer the same fate as its peer when it tags that line?

This isn't an isolated phenomenon. Apple (AAPL) provides a stunning example of a parallel channel marking a major top. Gareth had previously identified a massive channel formation connecting key pivots going back to the COVID lows. Apple stock hit the top of this channel at $288 and has since embarked on a 10% correction, now trading around $257. This successful forecast demonstrates how long-term technical boundaries can override short-term news and sentiment. For those looking for the next opportunity in Apple, a gap fill level around $252 presents a potential area to watch for a short-term bounce.

High-Altitude Setups in the Airline Sector

The airline industry, after a period of strong performance, is now flying into significant technical turbulence. United Airlines (UAL) has just tagged a multi-year trendline of immense importance, connecting the high pivots from 2018 and January 2025. From a purely technical standpoint, this creates a high-probability short-selling opportunity.

When a stock hits such a long-term and well-respected resistance level, the expectation is for a pullback. The initial support target for UAL would be around the $91 level, offering a substantial potential gain from current prices. Other airlines, like Delta (DAL), are exhibiting similar patterns, approaching their own long-term resistance lines. This sector-wide setup suggests that the recent ascent for airlines may be nearing its cruising altitude before a potential descent.

Silver's Moment of Truth

In the commodities space, the action in silver is demanding attention. After a powerful run, silver printed a bearish reversal engulfing candle on the daily chart—a pattern where a large red candle completely negates the prior day's green candle. This, combined with making both a higher high and a lower low, is a double bearish signal.

Gareth noted the intense emotional response he received after pointing out this bearish short-term setup, highlighting a critical lesson for all traders.

"The more people say I'm crazy, the more I know I'm likely going to be right because it tells you emotion… Remember the crowd never wins when everyone's on one side of a trade, it can't win because you run out of buyers."

This contrarian insight is now being validated by price action. Today, silver is down another 5% and, more importantly, is testing the critical uptrend line that has supported its rally since mid-November. A confirmed close below this line would be a major technical breakdown, signaling a probable decline towards support levels at $64 and potentially as low as $58. This trendline is the line in the sand for both bulls and bears.

In contrast, gold is holding its ground far better. It remains safely contained within its own wedge pattern, showing relative strength compared to silver's volatile sell-off.

Conclusion: Navigating a Coiled and Complicated Market

The market is at a critical inflection point. The compressing wedge patterns in the major indices promise a significant breakout is coming, likely within the next few weeks. As we await that resolution, the landscape is filled with both high-probability trading setups and frustrating examples of market manipulation.

The key takeaway is the unwavering power of disciplined, probability-based technical analysis. From the parallel channels dictating turns in Apple and Western Digital to the multi-year trendlines halting the advance in the Dow and United Airlines, the charts are providing a clear road map. Even in the emotionally charged metals market, silver's sell-off is adhering to classic technical reversal signals.

With jobs data looming tomorrow and earnings season kicking off next week, volatility is set to increase. By remaining objective, trusting the charts over the hype, and maintaining the humility to be honest about what the data shows—even if it conflicts with personal long-term biases—traders can confidently navigate the wild ride ahead.