GAME PLAN REVEALED: 04/28/2025
The markets have staged an impressive recovery, bouncing back 14% from their April 7th lows. As we enter the busiest week of earnings season with tech giants Microsoft, Meta, and Apple all set to report, traders and investors are watching key technical levels that could determine the next major market move. In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, revealed critical resistance targets and potential trade setups that savvy traders should be monitoring.
The S&P 500’s Path to Resistance
After the dramatic reversal we witnessed earlier this month, the S&P 500 has maintained its bullish bias following successful tests of support. The index is now approaching a significant resistance zone, with gap fill at approximately 5700. This level represents a mere 2.43% move from current prices, making it a realistic target in the short term.
What makes this setup particularly interesting is the relationship between the market and 10-year Treasury yields. The 10-year yield is showing a classic bull flag pattern – a technical formation consisting of a strong upward move (the flagpole) followed by sideways consolidation (the flag). This pattern typically resolves with continued upward movement, which traditionally would create headwinds for equity markets.
This creates a fascinating potential scenario: we could see yields pull back slightly as the market pushes to its resistance target, followed by a yield breakout that coincides with a market pullback. This interplay between bonds and equities is worth monitoring closely as it unfolds.
The Historical Significance of the Recent Bounce
To fully appreciate the importance of the current S&P 500 setup, we need to consider what this 14% bounce represents in the broader context. Historically, when markets experience such dramatic rebounds following sharp selloffs, they often test significant resistance levels before determining their next major directional move.
The current resistance at 5700 isn’t just a random number – it represents a critical gap fill level from the April decline. Gap fills often act as magnets for price action, drawing the market back to test these levels before establishing a new trend. What makes this particular level so compelling is its confluence with other technical factors and its relationship with Treasury yields.
The Yield-Equity Relationship: A Crucial Dynamic
The 10-year Treasury yield has been a critical driver of market sentiment throughout 2025. The bull flag pattern currently forming suggests that yields may not be done climbing higher. When analyzing the relationship between yields and equity markets, it’s important to understand that rising yields typically pressure growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector, due to the impact on present value calculations of future earnings.
What’s noteworthy in the current setup is how the S&P 500 has managed to rally despite elevated yields. This divergence is unusual and suggests either that the market is discounting the impact of higher yields or that we’re witnessing a temporary phenomenon that will eventually resolve with either yields pulling back or equities correcting.
The scenario Gareth outlined – yields pulling back briefly as equities push to resistance, followed by a yield breakout triggering a market correction – aligns with historical patterns. Market participants would be wise to monitor this relationship closely, particularly as we navigate through this critical earnings week.
Tech Giants at Critical Junctures
With the biggest names in tech reporting earnings this week, their technical setups couldn’t be more important:
NVIDIA: Technical Resilience Amid Competition Concerns
Despite news that Chinese chipmaker Huawei has developed a chip rivaling Nvidia’s best offerings, NVIDIA’s chart shows resilience. After kissing gap fill, the stock faces resistance at 114, with a more significant level at 122. These technical barriers will be crucial for determining NVIDIA’s next directional move.
The Huawei announcement is particularly interesting given NVIDIA’s dominance in the AI chip space. The market’s reaction to this news – only a slight pullback rather than a dramatic selloff – suggests that investors may be skeptical about the immediate competitive threat or are pricing in NVIDIA’s robust product pipeline and market position.
From a technical perspective, NVIDIA’s ability to maintain its uptrend despite this headline risk is noteworthy. The stock has retraced much of its April decline and is now approaching multiple resistance levels that will test the strength of this recovery.
Meta: Fibonacci Confluence Creates Compelling Short Setup
Following an extraordinary run from $87 to $740 since the November 2022 lows, Meta has experienced its most significant pullback of this bull cycle. The parallel channel analysis reveals important resistance between $645-650, which also coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This confluence of technical factors makes this zone a potential shorting opportunity if Meta rallies into earnings.
The significance of the 61.8% Fibonacci level cannot be overstated. This key retracement level often acts as the dividing line between a temporary correction and a deeper retracement. When this level aligns with a parallel channel resistance, as it does in Meta’s case, the technical case for resistance becomes even stronger.
Meta’s earnings will be particularly scrutinized for insights into digital advertising spending, Reality Labs investments, and the company’s AI initiatives. The technical setup suggests that even positive earnings might face resistance at these key technical levels, potentially creating an opportunity for skilled traders.
Microsoft: Multiple Technical Factors Align at Resistance
Similar technical analysis shows major resistance ahead for Microsoft, with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level aligning with trend resistance. This alignment of multiple technical factors creates a stronger case for resistance at these levels.
Microsoft’s cloud business, particularly Azure, will be in focus during earnings, as will its AI integration across its product suite. The stock has recovered significantly from its recent decline, but the technical barriers ahead may limit further upside without a substantial earnings beat and raised guidance.
The 50% retracement level is often viewed as a critical decision point in technical analysis. Its alignment with trend resistance creates a confluence zone that traders should monitor closely as Microsoft approaches its earnings report.
Apple: Gap Fill and Fibonacci Create Precise Resistance Zone
Apple’s chart reveals a significant gap to be filled at $224, with a secondary level at $236. Interestingly, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level sits at $225.75, creating a tight confluence zone that strengthens the technical case for resistance.
This tight clustering of technical levels within a 1% range creates what Gareth referred to as a “two-factor resistance level.” When gap fills and Fibonacci levels align this closely, they often provide more reliable resistance than either factor alone.
Apple’s earnings will be scrutinized for iPhone sales data, services growth, and any commentary on AI integration. The clear technical resistance zone provides traders with a well-defined area to monitor for potential shorting opportunities if Apple rallies into this range.
Bitcoin: Leading Indicator or Flight to Safety?
Bitcoin has reached a critical juncture at $96,000, where it’s found resistance at a parallel trendline dating back to 2017 that connects the 2021 high and recent highs. This level also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the all-time high to recent lows, creating a powerful technical barrier.
The intriguing question now is whether Bitcoin is functioning as a leading indicator for equities or as a flight to safety asset. Historically, Bitcoin has often topped before the stock market and bottomed before it as well. If this relationship holds, the current resistance at $96,000 could signal that equity markets are also approaching their near-term ceiling.
The Shifting Correlation Between Bitcoin and Equities
The relationship between Bitcoin and traditional markets has evolved significantly over the years. Initially viewed as an uncorrelated asset, Bitcoin has shown increasing correlation with risk assets, particularly technology stocks, during periods of market stress.
However, Bitcoin’s behavior can shift between acting as a risk asset and a safe haven depending on market conditions and narrative. The current setup is particularly interesting because Bitcoin appears to be testing significant resistance just as equity markets approach their own key levels.
If Bitcoin is indeed functioning as a leading indicator, its failure to break above the $96,000 level could presage a similar resistance test and rejection in equity markets. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks decisively above this level, it might signal continued strength in risk assets more broadly.
The technical confluence at the current level – with both a multi-year parallel trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement converging – makes this a particularly important level to watch. The precision with which Bitcoin has respected these technical levels in the past gives additional weight to the current setup.
Gold and Silver: Diverging Paths
The precious metals market is showing interesting divergence. Gold has formed what appears to be a bear flag after its recent pullback from all-time highs, with consistent lows forming a clear support level. A break below $3,265 could send gold down to the next support at approximately $3,140.
Silver, meanwhile, is holding above support and maintaining the potential for a move up to the $34.90-$35 range. This divergence between gold and silver could provide interesting trading opportunities in the coming days.
Understanding the Gold-Silver Divergence
The divergence between gold and silver is particularly noteworthy given their historical tendency to move in tandem. When these metals diverge, it often signals important market dynamics at play.
Gold’s technical pattern suggests further consolidation or pullback after its impressive run to all-time highs. The consistent lows forming over the past four trading days create a clear support level that, if broken, could trigger further selling. This pattern formation is a textbook bear flag, which typically resolves with continuation of the prior downtrend.
Silver’s relative strength compared to gold is interesting and may reflect its industrial applications and sensitivity to economic growth expectations. While gold often performs best during periods of economic uncertainty or as an inflation hedge, silver can benefit from both safe-haven flows and industrial demand.
Traders looking to capitalize on this divergence might consider pair trades or watching for confirmation of the technical patterns before establishing positions in either metal.
Energy Markets: Oil and Natural Gas Patterns
Oil continues to form a bear flag pattern following its recent decline. This technical formation, characterized by a slight upward drift following a sharp decline, typically resolves with continuation of the downtrend. The patience demonstrated in waiting for the ideal entry point rather than chasing the market highlights the disciplined approach that successful traders employ.
Natural gas recently bounced from support but didn’t reach the previously identified buy zone. This scenario perfectly illustrates the importance of not chasing trades and instead waiting for price to reach predefined levels. The new buy zone has been adjusted to around $2.77, providing a clear level to monitor for potential long entries.
The Discipline of Patience
Perhaps the most valuable lesson from today’s analysis is the importance of patience and discipline in trading. As Gareth emphasized, “The discipline of your levels and factors… even if I miss the trade, who cares? There’s always another trade.”
This patient approach to trading—waiting for ideal setups rather than chasing moves—is what separates consistent performers from the crowd. By identifying key resistance levels in advance and requiring multiple technical factors to align before entering a position, traders can improve their probability of success.
The Psychology of Trading Probabilities
Remember that even a 75-80% probability of success means you’ll be wrong 20-25% of the time. This humility and edge awareness keeps successful traders from overallocating and taking unnecessary risks. As Gareth noted, “As soon as I think it’s a slam dunk and I overallocate my portfolio to a position, we all know what happens—I get smoked on that position.”
This acknowledgment of the probabilistic nature of trading is crucial for long-term success. Markets don’t offer certainties, only probabilities, and the best traders understand this fundamental truth. By maintaining position sizing discipline and acknowledging that even the most compelling setups can fail, traders protect themselves from catastrophic losses.
The abundance of trading opportunities is another key point emphasized in the analysis. The market presents countless setups every day, week, and month. Missing one trade isn’t significant when viewed in this context. By maintaining discipline and waiting for ideal setups where multiple factors align, traders can focus on quality over quantity, leading to better overall results.
Conclusion: A Week of Opportunity and Risk
As we navigate this busy earnings week, the technical setups across major indices, tech giants, cryptocurrencies, and commodities provide a roadmap for potential market moves. The confluence of earnings events, technical levels, and intermarket relationships creates both opportunity and risk.
By focusing on clearly defined technical levels, requiring multiple factors to align before entering positions, and maintaining trading discipline, investors can navigate this environment with confidence. Whether the markets push to new highs or reverse at resistance, the analytical framework provided in today’s GAME PLAN offers valuable insights for positioning ahead of these potential moves.
By maintaining discipline and patience, focusing on multi-factor technical analysis, and understanding that trading is ultimately a probability game, investors can navigate this critical earnings week with confidence and clarity.
Disclaimer: This article summarizes Gareth Soloway's technical analysis from the Game Plan broadcast and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial professional before making investment decisions.
