GAME PLAN REVEALED: 05/07/2025

This morning’s GAME PLAN session, hosted by Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, dove head-first into one of the most critical trading days of the quarter. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve as the FOMC releases its policy statement at 2 PM ET, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. But today's market action is not just about interest rates—geopolitical risks, macro technical levels, and mixed corporate earnings are also at play.

This article dissects the deeper implications of today’s developments, highlights key technical levels to monitor, and decodes Gareth’s probability-based approach to interpreting market behavior across indices, equities, commodities, and crypto.

The Fed Decision: Not Just About Rates

As Gareth noted in this morning’s broadcast:

“There’s not expected to be any rate cuts, let alone any rate hikes. It’s going to stay neutral… But it’s all going to be about the guidance.”

Today's Fed outcome is largely priced in—markets are not anticipating an interest rate move. The real driver will be Powell’s language during the press conference. Traders will analyze each word for insights into future policy direction. Will Powell acknowledge lingering inflation concerns? Will he hint at a pivot later in the year? These are the questions that will move markets more than the actual policy decision.

Geopolitical Tensions and China Trade Hopes

Markets opened under pressure following news of renewed tensions between India and Pakistan—two nuclear-armed neighbors. However, that risk off mood was quickly reversed in after-hours trading after U.S. Treasury Secretary Bent announced new negotiations with China. As Gareth pointed out:

“Markets initially were going down on the Pakistan-India news and then up dramatically on the China news.”

This sudden shift highlights how sensitive markets are to geopolitical developments. While investors seem to be discounting the India-Pakistan conflict for now, it’s a potential black swan risk, especially given the stakes of nuclear confrontation. Meanwhile, renewed China-U.S. talks have reassured traders who see trade stability as a tailwind for markets.

S&P 500 Futures: Hovering at Critical Resistance

The S&P 500 Futures came within striking distance of key resistance at 5700. According to Gareth, this level aligns with a major gap fill and an important Fibonacci retracement:

“This line in the sand right here around 5700 on the S&P futures… it's also right at the 618 Fibonacci retrace from the all-time high to the near-term 52-week low.”

Despite testing this area several times, the index remains capped beneath it. If the Fed statement surprises dovishly, it could fuel a breakout above 5700. However, any hawkish tilt could solidify this level as a near-term top.

U.S. Dollar (DXY): Bear Flag Forming

Heading into the Fed meeting, the Dollar Index (DXY) is signaling technical weakness:

“This is beginning to look more and more like a bear flag… a pattern formation while it could continue up, is the same formation we saw on oil.”

Bear flags are continuation patterns, and in this context, it suggests the dollar could resume its intermediate downtrend after this consolidation phase. A dovish Fed stance could accelerate this breakdown, further weakening the dollar and boosting risk assets and commodities in the short term.

10-Year Treasury Yield: Bullish Pattern with Uncertain Timing

The 10-year Treasury yield is consolidating in a textbook bullish formation. While odds favor an eventual upside breakout, the sequence remains unclear:

“The question I have—do we come down here and then break up, or on the Fed decision do we just break up?”

Either way, rising yields are generally bearish for equities—especially high-growth sectors like tech. Any move higher in rates post-Fed could spark a sell-off in stocks.

Earnings Watch: Select Opportunities Rising from Chaos

Earnings announcements delivered several notable technical setups today. Gareth spotlighted a range of stocks with actionable levels and real-time trade opportunities.

UPS: Buy-Now-Pay-Later Meets Buy-the-Dip

UPS dropped nearly 20% post-earnings. But Gareth had this move predicted and traded around it live:

“We played it beautifully. It was right here at 41.95… and we got out at 43.07—beautiful gain.”

This trade showcases Gareth’s multi-factor analysis method: identify a gap fill, combine with historical price levels, and time for high-probability bounces. Going forward, the next support zones lie at $37.75 and $35—with deeper support near $31.70.

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT): Potential Swing Setup Emerging

Following both regulatory drama and disappointing earnings, SRPT collapsed from $62 to a low of $33. Post-selloff, Gareth sees opportunity:

“To me, this looks very interesting on a swing trade basis… There’s a lot of support—pivot from 2014, 2015, and more recently.”

If the stock tests the $34–$36 zone again, Gareth is likely to begin building a position. Despite the risk from the new anti-gene therapy FDA official, the trade-off between risk and reward is becoming increasingly attractive.

SMCI: Double Warning, Double Bottom Coming?

SMCI shocked traders by pre-announcing weak earnings—only to reiterate even worse guidance during the official report. The stock offers no near-term long setup, but Gareth sees a swing buying opportunity developing:

“Double bottom and gap fill with a down-sloping trendline merging around $18–$19… That's a multi-factor level.”

Though it’s about 30% away, that area will likely represent high-probability value territory.

Uber: Eyeing the $77 Support Zone

Uber’s post-earnings volatility is more muted. The stock finds itself above its key technical support, but not in a clear setup. Gareth is watching the $77 zone:

“You’ve got this pullback low, multiple rejections, and it finally broke out. That support now becomes major again.”

A backtest of this area could provide a watchlist candidate for intraday or short-term long entries.

Disney: Eyeing a Short on Strength

Disney impressed on earnings, rallying aggressively in early trading. Despite this strength, Gareth warns of overhead resistance levels:

“I’ll be waiting right here at the $103 pierce to start a short position… Next level at $106, a pivot low that should act as resistance.”

With multiple Fibonacci factors also in the $103–$104 zone, bearish trades may emerge if the post-earnings rally becomes extended.

WeRide: Momentum in Motion

WeRide became an unexpected momentum play after announcing a strengthened partnership with Uber to deploy autonomous vehicles in China. Gareth's take:

“I think it at least gets back to $12.30—your former pivot low… support now becomes resistance over here.”

Still a speculative name, WeRide is held in Gareth’s Smart Money Stocks product and remains a high-velocity small-cap to watch.

Commodities Breakdown: Gold, Silver, Oil & Nat Gas

Gold: Logic Over Emotion

Gold ripped higher yesterday on safe-haven flows amid geopolitical concern. But Gareth faded the rally:

“We re-entered short positions yesterday… topping tail, retrace into 786 Fibonacci, big parallel—too many technical signals to ignore.”

Rather than chasing fear-based moves, Gareth leaned into his trusted technical edge, implying short-term downside is still probable pending confirmation.

Silver: The Wedge is Tightening

Silver is coiling tightly, wedged between resistance and support. As Gareth explained:

“Silver is getting in what we call a wedge pattern… Eventually, it’s going to have to break one way or the other—and it’s going to be a big move.”

Watch for breakout or breakdown. The resolution should offer a meaningful directional move.

Oil & Natural Gas: Patterns Holding, Patience Required

Oil bounced recently but still remains below resistance. Gareth maintains his bearish stance:

“We kissed double bottom after the bear flag breakdown. Now we’re up a little. But I still think we’re likely to turn back down.”

Natural gas, meanwhile, is approaching Gareth's short zone. No trade yet, but the $2.77–$2.80 area is being monitored closely.

Bitcoin: Neutral Until Proven Otherwise

Bitcoin’s recent rally pushed into resistance around the upper trendline of its existing channel. Despite reclaiming $96,400 support, Gareth remains cautious:

“It’s good to see it back above the 96,400 line… but it hasn’t confirmed. Still stuck within this parallel. For now, I give that a neutral bias.”

Until Bitcoin resolves above its upper channel or confirms sub-support, traders should stay patient.

Conclusion: Probabilities Over Predictions

Today’s market setup underscores the importance of trading probabilities rather than reacting emotionally. Whether it's pressing global risks, earnings volatility, commodity moves, or Fed policy expectations, Gareth remains focused on technical confluence, key levels, and risk/reward asymmetry.

As Gareth emphasized:

“My job is obviously to look at the charts, the data, and the probabilities—and make my decisions off that. If we all do that in trading, your results will be 10x better.”

With the FOMC statement and Powell press conference on deck, today promises to be a pivotal one. Stay nimble. Trade the levels. Trust the process.