GAME PLAN REVEALED: Fed Minutes, Nvidia Earnings & Market Cross-Assets

In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, set the stage for a pivotal trading day. We have the Fed minutes at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, followed by after-hours earnings from Nvidia and Salesforce (CRM). With the S&P 500 hovering near its all-time highs, semiconductors staging a sharp bounce and small-caps lagging, today’s article dives deeper into the technical setups, historical context, and psychological factors that will shape trading into tomorrow and beyond.

1. Market Setting and the Fed Minutes Catalyst

Volume may be subdued early, but the Fed minutes at 2:00 p.m. Eastern promise to inject volatility. These minutes often reveal the Fed’s assessment of inflation, labor markets and economic growth—key drivers of interest-rate expectations and market positioning. Historically, markets can chop into such releases, then spike on new insights. Traders will watch for changes in language around “higher for longer” rates or any hint of shift toward rate cuts.

"Today's a big day. Not so much early in the day... but later today we get the Fed minutes out at 2:00 p.m. Eastern time."

This cautionary tone highlights why price action may remain muted until the minutes drop. Position sizes should be adjusted accordingly, and stop-loss orders set to account for sudden 20–30 basis-point swings in yields.

2. S&P 500 at Resistance: All-Time High in Sight?

On the daily chart, the S&P 500 remains inside a resistance zone defined by last week’s failed breakout and the massive 10% one-day surge on Wednesday. That green candle high is now key support.

"If we get any daily close above this trend line… you should see a test of the all-time high on the S&P."

A breach and close above this zone would likely trigger a run toward 5,861, the record high from earlier this month. Conversely, repeated rejections here leave the door open for a pullback to the 5,700–5,750 range—where gap fills and 50-day moving averages converge. This fight between bulls and bears will be amplified by after-hours Nvidia reaction and the Fed minutes.

3. The Russell 2000: A Window into the Real Economy

Unlike the tech-heavy S&P or Nasdaq, the Russell 2000 represents 2,000 small-cap names—regional banks, industrials and consumer stocks. As Gareth noted,

"The Russell is 2,000 stocks… it’s a better gauge of the overall economy."

Despite a strong rally off the March lows, the Russell still sits 18% below its all-time high, versus just 3.8% for the S&P. This divergence underscores a bifurcated market: mega-caps powered by AI and cloud demand are near records, while the broader economy via small-caps remains under pressure from high borrowing costs, rent and consumer strain. Traders should watch if the Russell can close its gap at 2,190—an important confirmation of participation in today’s Fed-driven move.

4. Key Earnings Spotlight: Nvidia and Salesforce

After the bell, all eyes turn to Nvidia ($NVDA, $3 trillion market cap) and Salesforce ($CRM). Semiconductor sector ETFs (SMH) have rallied over 15% in the past month, but Nvidia’s guidance on AI GPU demand will be the real test.

"I'm leaning more towards shorting here and adding here if it pops up. That's around 148.50 and then 153 as key resistance levels."

Gareth outlined three key after-hours levels: a buy zone near 115 if the stock collapses, and resistance pivots at 148.50 and 153 for potential short entries. For CRM, support lies at the 237–243 gap fill, with a short-trigger near 314 if the rally into earnings falters. These setups hinge on post-earnings volatility and the balance between beaten-and-raised revenue estimates versus disappointing margin guidance.

5. After-Hours Ripples: Octa, Box and ANF

Earnings season’s volatility extends beyond the giants.

• Octa (OKTA) trading at $108 and change after missing guidance. A confluence of gap-fill and pivot support near 104.65–103.25 offers a high-probability long if it stabilizes.
• Box (BOX) gapped up to 37, testing all-time highs. An up-sloping trendline pivot near 37.80–38.00 is the logical short zone on a fade.
• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) soared to 10.25 in the pre-market. With its gap-fill rule broken, the next trigger lies around 10.85–11.00 based on the prior low pivot.

These case studies demonstrate the power of combining gap fills, pivot points and Fibonacci levels for precision entries, rather than gut-driven guesses.

6. Intermarket Dynamics: Dollar, Yields, Crypto, Metals and Energy

• U.S. Dollar (DXY): After a sharp sell-off, the dollar is flagging between 101 and 103. A break below 101 signals renewed weakness; a rally above 103.50 could stall risk assets.
• 10-Year Treasury Yield: Following three days down, yields face resistance at 4.74%. A bull-flag breakout there could pressure equities, while a failure keeps the 4.10–4.20% range intact.
• Bitcoin (BTC): Trading just under 96,000, BTC has formed a powerful inside-bar (bear flag) on the daily chart. Any close above the 102,000 bear-flag high would negate the setup; otherwise, odds favor a breakdown toward 80,000—a level that historically correlates with equity corrections.
• Gold & Silver: Gold remains bullish above 3,100 as long as that trendline holds, targeting 3,300 next. Silver’s consolidation near its trendline suggests another push to 34.90–35.50 if support holds.
• Palladium: After breaking resistance at 1,377, it retraced to that level—*"retraced to the scene of the crime"*—a classic high-pivot bounce that offers an eight-in-ten chance of upside continuation toward 1,500.
• Oil & Natural Gas: Both energy markets have traded in tight ranges for two weeks. Watch for a Fed-induced break in oil’s 74–78 range and natural gas’s 2.60–2.80 zone ahead of Friday’s PCE inflation data.

Trading Psychology and Patience

Events like Fed minutes and mega-cap earnings can lure traders into over-trading. As Gareth often reminds us, “Even if I miss the trade, who cares? There’s always another trade.” The discipline of waiting for multi-factor confluence—flag breaks, gap fills, pivot and Fibonacci alignments—reduces emotional trades and preserves capital for the next high-probability setup.

Conclusion: Positioning for Fed Minutes and Earnings Volatility

Today’s Fed minutes and after-hours earnings from Nvidia and Salesforce will define near-term market direction. A clear breakout above S&P resistance or a failure to reclaim these levels, confirmed by Russell 2000 participation, will guide the next leg. Intermarket cues from the dollar, yields, crypto and commodities provide additional clues for trend sustainability or reversal. By maintaining patience, trading probabilities and respecting technical levels, investors can navigate the volatility with clarity and confidence.