Navigating the Pre‑Holiday Crush: Game Plan Revealed April 17, 2025

Navigating the Calm Before the Storm: Lessons from the Last Trading Day of the Week

Thursday mornings in trading often carry an undercurrent of anticipation—like the hush before a symphony’s crescendo. But when that Thursday precedes a market holiday, the tension magnifies. It was on such a morning—Thursday, April 17, 2025—that Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing in Clearwater, Florida, took to our screens for an episode of Game Plan, guiding viewers through the market’s intricate dance on the eve of Good Friday. Below, we expand on Gareth’s insights, validate the data points he highlighted, and deliver a rich companion piece that unpacks the strategies, psychology, and technical know‑how every trader needs when the market’s pulse quickens ahead of a holiday.

1. The Holiday Hangover: Positioning for the Unexpected

When markets close for Good Friday on April 18, 2025, they pause for a solemn observance—but not before traders make their final bets. As Gareth reminded us, “Today is the last day of the trading week,” and that forces two camps into action:

The Weekend Warriers, who liquidate positions to avoid being blindsided by overnight developments—think fresh trade‑war headlines or geopolitical flare‑ups that can reopen gaps on Monday’s open.
The Bounce‑Hunters, who cover shorts, anticipating bullish headlines—like China’s recent willingness to talk trade, provided the U.S. shows respect.

This tug‑of‑war between fear and greed compresses volatility into a concentrated window. Seasoned traders lean into these patterns: squared‑off positions often lead to pronounced end‑of‑week moves, creating fleeting opportunities that reward those who anticipate the crowd’s collective jitters or opportunistic cover‑ups.

2. Reading the Tea Leaves: Key Economic Data of the Week

Before diving into charts, Gareth ran through three economic releases that shaped Thursday’s sentiment:

Weekly Jobless Claims: 215,000 filings vs. 225,000 expected. Since jobless claims measure new unemployment applications, a lower reading signals resilience in the labor market. This mildly positive surprise underpinned early buying interest.
March Housing Starts: 1.32 million vs. 1.40 million forecast. A dramatic shortfall here reflects builders pulling back amid rising mortgage rates and strained consumer affordability. Given housing’s outsized role in GDP, this miss raised concerns about broader economic momentum.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: –26.4 vs. +2.2 expected. This collapse into contraction territory marked the weakest Philly Fed print since the pandemic lows—an abrupt signal that factory sentiment in the Mid‑Atlantic has soured sharply.

Together, these data points framed Thursday’s trading: resilient labor data vs. faltering manufacturing and housing. For risk managers, the mixed bag argued for caution—especially so late in the week when unexpected headlines can swing markets sharply at Monday’s open.

3. The Fed’s Final Word: Powell’s No‑Cut Signal

Perhaps no single event shook markets more than Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at 1:30 p.m. ET Wednesday. As Gareth explained, “His commentary basically saying ‘we’re not cutting interest rates anytime soon’ tanked the market.” Let’s unpack why:

Market Expectations: Since the December 2023 peak in the Fed Funds Rate, investors had priced in at least one 25 bps cut by mid‑2025. Powell’s insistence on maintaining current rates shattered those hopes.
Chart Reaction: The S&P 500 (ES futures) slid nearly 1% within minutes of his opening remarks—a classic example of “don’t fight the Fed.”
Psychological Impact: When traders believe the Fed is pivoting to ease, equities often climb on cheaper financing and renewed risk appetite. Powell’s pivot‑avoidance forced a rapid de‑risking, exposing crowded long positions.

Understanding this episode helps traders calibrate Fed‑risk ahead of major speeches. Not every Fed announcement is a market‑mover, but clear guidance against rate cuts can trigger outsized retracements—particularly when markets are looking for reassurance.

4. Presidential Pressure: Trump’s Public Rebuke of the Fed

By early Thursday, President Trump took to Truth Social to lambaste Powell as an “idiot” for refusing to cut rates. While the White House and Fed maintain institutional independence, such public cross‑fire can unsettle markets:

Perceived Political Interference: Traders cringe at the idea of rate‑setting becoming a political football. If market participants fear the Fed’s decisions will be second‑guessed, bond yields can gyrate wildly.
Global Implications: Remember that U.S. treasury demand doesn’t rest solely on Fed policy. Foreign buyers—most notably China—must remain willing to purchase Treasuries if rates are to hold low. Trump’s push for China to buy more U.S. debt, while politically charged, underscores how trade negotiations and Treasury flows intertwine.

For Verified Investing’s audience, this episode reaffirms the importance of distinguishing central‑bank mechanics (Fed Funds Rate) from ultimate rate direction (10‑year Treasury yield). The Fed sets a short‑term benchmark—but the markets set longer yields based on global demand, inflation, and safe‑haven flows.

5. Beyond the Bench: The 10‑Year Yield and True Rate Drivers

Gareth reminded us: “The Fed controls the bank‑lending rate—but markets determine where rates go in reality.” We can see this in Thursday’s 10‑year Treasury yield, which lingered near a key support zone (~4.15%):

Bank‑Lending vs. Market Rate: The Fed’s policy rate influences overnight bank lending, but the 10‑year yield reflects investor expectations on inflation, growth, and global capital flows.
Technical Significance: A breach below support could signal a broader risk‑off mood—perhaps spurring bond bulls. Conversely, a break above would ratchet borrowing costs higher, pressuring sectors sensitive to long‑term rates (housing, utilities).
Trade War Link: If U.S.–China tensions ease, and China commits to purchasing Treasuries, that incremental demand could push yields lower—fueling a rally in rate‑sensitive equities.

Seasoned traders mark these Treasury inflection points on their dashboards. Watching the 10‑year’s reaction to macro events provides early clues to sector rotations—dropping yields boost REITs, utilities, and long‑duration tech.

6. Dollar Dislocation: When Safe Haven Fails

Unusually, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell through technical support—“It’s chopping sideways…pretty rapidly collapsing,” as Gareth put it—underscoring a rare breakdown in the world’s reserve currency:

Technical Levels: Key support near 96.70 was violated, opening targets near 95.50. For traders, the DXY breakdown argues for caution on dollar‑pegged assets and potential strength in foreign currencies (euro, yen).
Safe‑Haven Role: Typically, the dollar rises in risk‑off episodes. Its failure to rally on Powell’s hawkish tone suggests other forces at play—perhaps repatriation flows, cross‑asset portfolio hedges, or divergent central‑bank policies overseas.
Trading Implications: Currency traders watching DXY’s breakdown would explore long EUR/USD or JPY/USD, while equity traders might favor multinationals benefiting from a weaker greenback.

A collapsing dollar adds complexity to cross‑asset strategies—importers win, exporters and commodity producers face headwinds. Verified Investing members keep their eyes on this dynamic to hedge multi‑market portfolios.

7. Corporate Spotlight: Taiwan Semiconductor’s Tepid Rally

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported strong Q1 earnings—but the stock’s 2% pre‑market bounce (from $150.25 to $155.75) hardly registered as earth‑shattering. Why?

Old News vs. Forward Risk: As Gareth highlighted, “Good earnings last quarter don’t matter when next quarter faces tariffs and trade‑war escalation.” Traders care more about tomorrow’s unknowns than yesterday’s results.
Technical Breakdown: TSM’s daily chart shows a rising parallel channel slicing through successive lows. When that channel breaks, “the floodgates open”—an 80% probability of a downside continuation.
Entry Strategy: Members of the Winning Trader Series learn to count channel “hits” and scale short entries progressively:
1. First three touches often hold (low‑probability break).
2. Fourth touch becomes a 50/50 proposition—time to step aside.
3. Fifth and sixth touches amplify breakdown odds (60–80%)—prime shorting opportunities.

By overlaying fundamental headwinds on TSM with the technical pattern, traders gain conviction for tactical positioning, rather than chasing stale earnings news.

8. Anatomy of an Index Crash: UnitedHealthcare and the Dow vs. S&P

Then came the shocker: UnitedHealthcare (UNH) plunged 20% on lowered guidance, slashing roughly 700 points off the Dow Jones Industrial Average in one session. Gareth’s reminder—that the Dow only tracks 30 price‑weighted constituents, vs. the S&P 500’s market‑cap weighting—explains why the S&P remained slightly positive:

Dow’s Price Weighting: A $1,000‑stock move in a Dow component wields outsized influence. A single UNH collapse can overwhelm dozens of other gainers.
S&P’s Market‑Cap Weighting: Apple alone (near $3 trillion market cap) holds more sway than UNH, so even a 20% UNH crash barely dents the S&P 500’s composite.

For robust market barometers, Justin Ritter’s readers focus on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite over the Dow—especially when individual large‑cap shocks threaten to distort headline readings.

9. Fib Levels and the “Dust‑Settle” Philosophy

After massive, headline‑driven moves, Gareth counsels patience: “Just because something is down 20% doesn’t mean it’s a great buying opportunity anymore. I’m going to let the dust settle.” He illustrated this with UNH’s Fibonacci retracement levels:

78.6% Fib near $485 – first bounce zone.
88.6% Fib near $457 – secondary support.
Double‑bottom near $440 – tactical entry for quick traders.

In today’s uncertain regime, stepping back to let volatility compress can prevent catching a falling knife. Verified Investing emphasizes watching multiple days of price action before committing, rather than reflexive dip‑buying.

10. High‑Prob Entries: Tesla and Palantir Case Studies

Rather than long‑term bets, Gareth offered two short‑term plays:

Tesla (TSLA): Support trend line hits—three touches in a major channel—present a high‑probability bounce. A break below would shift odds to a 50/50 proposition, so entries are best on the next touch.
Palantir (PLTR): A classic up‑sloping channel gave a three‑touch bounce in pre‑market, rewarding early entries. Traders plan exits at retracement back into former resistance—“retrace to the scene of the crime.”

These examples reinforce the “casino” philosophy: seek setups where probabilities favor you heavily before pulling the trigger, then manage risk with predefined stops and profit targets.

11. Crypto and Commodities: Patterns That Span Markets

Gareth also mapped universal patterns across asset classes:

Bitcoin (BTC): Bullish consolidation above a key trend line—with six touches before breakouts—suggests a push toward $88,500–$92,000.
Gold (XAU): Despite retail bullishness, gold’s parallel channel resistance near $3,400 offers a chance for a 10% pullback to ~$3,000. Extreme bullish sentiment in comments can serve as a contrarian signal.
Silver & Oil: Silver’s unconfirmed breakout advises caution; oil’s bearish consolidation foreshadows a slide toward $65–$66 before any relief rally.

By abstracting chart tactics, members learn to apply “hit count” and parallel‑channel analysis across stocks, crypto, and commodities—unlocking cross‑market agility.

12. The Power of Education: From Game Plan to Mastery

Thursday’s Game Plan session felt like “a crash course in trading,” Gareth quipped—a sentiment echoed by Verified Investing’s commitment to teach technical mastery:

Winning Trader Series: 20 hours of in‑depth probability, pattern, and risk‑management training.
Smart Money Stocks & ETFs: Swing trade ideas—like SMCI’s 12% gain in 24 hours—demonstrate real‑world application.
Daily Game Plan & Trading the Close: Consistent guidance sharpens intuition and discipline.

For new traders, these experiences highlight that true edge comes not from luck, but from systematic methods rooted in probability and psychology.

Looking Ahead: Monday’s Next Move

With markets closed on Good Friday, the next Game Plan Revealed article drops Monday, April 21, unpacking that day’s episode—and decoding what to do when trading resumes after a three‑day pause. We’ll assess whether weekend headlines shift the narrative, track fresh economic data on tap, and map out the next high‑probability setups for Verified Investing members.