GAME PLAN REVEALED: April 24, 2025

A deeper dive into today’s GAME PLAN analysis with Gareth Soloway

In this morning’s GAME PLAN, Gareth Soloway walked viewers through the current technical landscape while highlighting a critical aspect of successful trading: maintaining discipline when markets swing wildly on geopolitical headlines. As contradictory statements about U.S.-China trade discussions ricocheted through the markets yesterday—with officials from both nations contradicting each other about whether talks were even happening—Gareth reminded viewers to focus on what truly matters: the technicals, the data, and the probabilities.

The Technical Framework Guiding Current Market Direction

The S&P 500 futures have been holding above the critical support level established during the retrace low following that massive 10% upside move three Wednesdays ago. This level, around 5147-5150, remains the technical line in the sand that determines Gareth’s directional bias. As he emphasized, “As long as we do not close below this 5147-5150 level on the S&P 500, I would favor upside to the 5700 level.”

This technical framework offers traders a clear roadmap: bullish positioning until that support breaks, with a defined target for potential profit-taking or even establishing short positions once that target is reached.

What’s particularly instructive about this analysis is the discipline behind it. While markets overreact to every headline about China tariffs or Jerome Powell’s job security, successful traders maintain focus on these technical levels to guide decision-making.

Historical Context: The Power of Technical Support and Resistance

The significance of these technical levels isn’t arbitrary. Throughout market history, similar retrace lows following explosive upside moves have consistently provided reliable support or resistance points. During the 2020 COVID recovery, the retracement level following the initial surge from March lows became a critical support level that held through multiple tests over the subsequent months. Similarly, after the 2018 December sell-off and January 2019 recovery, the retracement level established following the first surge became a pivotal technical zone.

These historical patterns reinforce why Gareth places such emphasis on the current 5147-5150 level. It’s not just a random number but a zone where significant buyer interest has already demonstrated itself, making it a high-probability support area until proven otherwise.

The FOMO Factor: Recognizing Retail Hysteria

Perhaps the most valuable insight from today’s GAME PLAN came when Gareth discussed Bitcoin’s recent move to $109,000 before pulling back to $74,000. He highlighted a critical psychological pattern that every trader should recognize: extreme price targets emerging on social media as assets approach new highs.

“You start seeing on social media the $250,000 year-end target predictions,” Gareth noted, explaining how these outlandish projections trigger FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in retail investors who then buy the highs. For disciplined traders, these extreme predictions serve as a contrarian indicator that we’re likely approaching the end of a run, not the beginning.

This psychological insight applies across all asset classes. When stocks, commodities, or cryptocurrencies reach new highs and social media becomes flooded with increasingly extreme price targets, it often marks the final euphoric phase before a pullback or consolidation. The wise trader recognizes this pattern and maintains discipline rather than chasing momentum at precisely the wrong time.

Durable Goods: Reading Beyond the Headlines

Today’s economic data provided a perfect example of why surface-level analysis can lead traders astray. The durable goods orders came in at a staggering 9% increase compared to just 0.9% the previous month. At first glance, this might suggest an economy firing on all cylinders.

However, as Gareth correctly pointed out, this surge reflects buyers front-loading purchases ahead of expected tariff implementations—not organic economic strength. This front-loading phenomenon has occurred repeatedly throughout recent trade tensions, creating temporary data spikes followed by compensatory declines.

Understanding these nuances is crucial for interpreting economic data in the current environment. Similar front-loading occurred in late 2018 and early 2019 during previous rounds of tariff implementations, creating volatile economic data that confused many market participants but provided opportunities for those who understood the underlying dynamics.

Earnings Season Trading Strategy: Day Trade vs. Swing Trade Approach

Today’s GAME PLAN offered valuable insights into how professional traders approach earnings season. As Gareth analyzed ServiceNow’s 7-8% post-earnings move, he revealed a disciplined framework for trading these volatile periods:

1. Different approaches for day trades versus swing trades - Gareth doesn’t initiate swing trade shorts on the first day after a big earnings beat, recognizing the momentum could continue. Instead, he looks for technical levels that align with multiple indicators for potential day trades.
2. Multiple technical confirmations - Note how Gareth identified the 940 level on ServiceNow as interesting because it coincided with both the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and previous pivot points. When multiple technical indicators align at a single price point, the probability of that level being significant increases dramatically.
3. Psychological levels for swing entries - For potential swing trades, Gareth targets the 618 Fibonacci level around $1,000, which not only aligns with previous technical pivots but also represents a major psychological round number. This methodology of combining technical analysis with market psychology creates high-probability entry points.

This structured approach to earnings season trading demonstrates why professional traders consistently outperform: they have clear rules that distinguish between different time horizons and specific criteria that must be met before entering positions.

The Gold Market: Understanding Psychological Bounce Patterns

Gold’s price action offered another valuable lesson in market psychology. After a 6-7% pullback from recent highs, gold was experiencing a technical bounce—something Gareth anticipated and prepared for by taking partial profits on his short position.

“When you’ve had a bull run like you have in gold and then you get a pullback… you will have a bounce day after a couple down days,” Gareth explained. This occurs because investors who missed the initial move see the pullback as their opportunity to enter, creating temporary buying pressure even within an ongoing correction.

This pattern repeats across market cycles and asset classes. During the 2000-2002 bear market, the S&P 500 experienced multiple 5-15% relief rallies within the larger downtrend. Similarly, during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, several powerful bounces occurred precisely when sentiment became most negative.

Understanding these psychological patterns allows traders to:

• Take partial profits on winning positions before counter-trend bounces
• Avoid being shaken out of good positions by predictable counter-trend moves
• Potentially establish new positions at better prices after the bounce exhausts itself

Separating Long-Term Views from Short-Term Trading Decisions

Perhaps the most valuable insight for developing traders came when Gareth discussed his approach to gold. Despite being fundamentally bullish on gold over the medium to long term due to U.S. debt issues and monetary policy concerns, he maintains the discipline to trade the short-term technical picture.

“Shorter-term traders, you have to disengage from that,” he advised regarding long-term fundamental views. This ability to compartmentalize time horizons is what separates successful traders from those who allow their macro views to cloud their judgment on shorter timeframes.

This principle has been demonstrated throughout market history. During the dot-com bubble, many value investors correctly identified the fundamental overvaluation yet shorted too early, suffering significant losses before eventually being proven right. Similarly, during the 2009-2020 bull market, many fundamentally bearish traders missed enormous upside because they couldn’t separate their long-term concerns from the positive technical picture.

Conclusion: Technical Discipline Amidst Headline Chaos

As markets continue to react dramatically to every tweet, statement, and rumor regarding U.S.-China trade relations, the lesson from today’s GAME PLAN is clear: maintain technical discipline and focus on probability-based decision making.

The framework Gareth outlined—bullish above 5147-5150 with a target of 5700 on the S&P 500—provides a clear roadmap regardless of the daily headlines. While others panic with each contradictory statement from officials, disciplined traders can navigate with clarity by focusing on these technical levels.

Combined with the psychological insights regarding FOMO indicators, earnings season trading approaches, and the management of counter-trend bounces, today’s session offered a comprehensive toolkit for trading the current environment with confidence rather than confusion.

For more real-time insights and chart analysis, tune in to GAME PLAN live every weekday at 9am ET with Gareth Soloway.

Disclaimer: All content, trading ideas, and setups are for educational purposes only. Trading involves inherent risks, and most traders do not achieve profitable results. Any decision to follow these setups is entirely at your own risk, and you are responsible for your actions. None of the information should be considered as financial advice or a recommendation to trade specific assets.