Game Plan Revealed: April 22 — Bull Flag Holds, Tesla & Gold at Pivotal Levels

GAME PLAN REVEALED: Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Markets Rebound After Technical Save: Flag Pattern Intact, Tesla in Focus, Gold at Inflection

Introduction: A Shift in Sentiment—Or Just a Pause?

Following Monday’s brutal market sell-off, the investing landscape looked grim heading into Tuesday. But by morning, a sharp reversal in futures was underway. S&P 500 futures bounced roughly 60 points, while the Nasdaq began climbing back from the brink.

On today’s Game Plan, Gareth Soloway of Verified Investing broke down this shift, attributing it to a crucial end-of-day save in Monday’s session and macro shifts in yields and the U.S. dollar. With tech earnings looming and gold facing a possible top, Gareth laid out a comprehensive technical and strategic roadmap for short-term traders and macro watchers alike.

In this edition of Game Plan Revealed, we walk through the key technical levels holding this market together, highlight actionable earnings trade setups, and explain how traders can make sense of yield pressure, dollar volatility, and potential inflection points in gold and Tesla. Let’s break it down.

1. Monday’s Breakdown, Tuesday’s Recovery: Reading the Tape

“Markets down 2 to 3%. We were down 3 to 4% before a late-day rally. Today, markets are looking higher.”

Markets opened Tuesday with a modest rebound—far from a full recovery, but significant in light of Monday’s sharp losses. The S&P had fallen as much as 4% intraday before buyers stepped in late.

“We’re not regaining everything we lost yesterday, but the key is we’re regaining about half of it.”

That 50% retracement level matters—not just for technical traders, but because it reflects investor willingness to step back in. Gareth points to two macro forces providing temporary support:

Yields were seeing a minor pullback
The U.S. dollar was bouncing after a rapid descent

Both dynamics lifted risk assets, at least temporarily. But it wasn’t just the macro that mattered—technical structure may have saved the bull flag pattern on the major indices.

“That was a tremendous rally on a technical basis… important to the market maintaining a neutral to short-term bullish bias.”

2. S&P and Nasdaq Flag Patterns: Hanging By a Thread

Gareth focused on one specific structure: the bull flag pattern on the S&P and Nasdaq 100. In both cases, the Monday lows approached or even breached the lower bound of the flag setup—but only briefly.

S&P 500 Daily Setup

The key marker? The low of the retrace candle that followed the massive green “flagpole” up two Wednesdays ago.

“As long as we did not close below the low of this retrace candle, then the bullish bias would remain.”

Monday’s price action pierced that level, but closed above it—just barely.

On the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), the last-minute save was even more dramatic.

“Literally with 30 minutes remaining… the Nasdaq 100 was below that low. And the final 10-minute candle got us back above that line.”

That tiny recovery wasn’t just symbolic. It preserved the entire structure of the bull flag. Gareth emphasizes this is a short-term read—he remains bearish longer-term—but technical integrity was maintained.

“We closed above… and what’s the market doing today? Net positive on the Nasdaq and the S&P.”

The lesson? Closing levels matter. The market is often smarter than the narrative.

3. What the Market Needs Now: Real Catalysts, Lower Yields

“The market needs facts. It needs official deals.”

Despite the relief rally, Gareth warns that macro fundamentals still aren’t supportive of a sustainable upside. Traders should keep an eye on:

Real trade deals (not talk)
Lower 10-year yields
A stabilized dollar

“We’ve heard a lot about, ‘Oh, we’re talking to a bunch of countries’… but we don’t have any facts yet.”

Without formal agreements—particularly with China—Gareth warns that rallies will remain fragile.

And on the bond side:

“If other countries just step back from buying our debt… then there’s nothing the Fed can do about that unless they decide to buy all the U.S. debt—which again doesn’t make sense in the long run.”

He describes even a “little downside in yields” as “taking the foot off the throat of the markets.”

The dollar adds another layer.

“Green on the dollar, red on the 10-year yield—those combine for the markets to be moving up.”

4. Dollar Dynamics: What’s Behind the Slide—and the Rebound

The U.S. dollar’s strength or weakness has ripple effects across virtually every asset class. In recent weeks, its sudden weakness has signaled something deeper: waning international confidence in U.S. policy and fiscal management. Gareth noted that the magnitude of the drop placed it among the most severe dollar slides in modern history.

A modest bounce, like we saw Tuesday morning, can lift equities—but it doesn’t negate the larger structural problem. As more nations diversify their reserve assets, demand for dollars continues to shrink.

“This is stuff you’re not really going to hear in the mainstream media.”

And he’s right. While media outlets focus on earnings or short-term catalysts, macro flows driven by sovereign decisions often go unnoticed. The lesson? Watch the dollar not just as a trading instrument—but as a confidence gauge in global risk sentiment.

5. Earnings Roundup: Signals, Surprises, and Technical Trade Setups

Gareth reviewed Tuesday’s key pre-market earnings and shared which ones were worth watching from a trader’s perspective:

3M (MMM)

“Reporting earnings this morning… better than expected. Revenue came in better than expected.”

The stock opened higher, but Gareth emphasized that the guidance told a more nuanced story:

“Because of tariffs… their future earnings will be affected by 40 cents per share.”

This reflects the broader uncertainty tariffs continue to inject into forward earnings estimates.

GE Aerospace

GE saw a slight bump following earnings. The bounce, however, came within a longer downtrend and didn’t provide a standout setup.

“We’re just bouncing back up in this range.”

For Gareth, that means there’s no technical trigger—no breakdown, no breakout.

Verizon (VZ)

Although Verizon beat expectations, it traded lower pre-market.

“They didn’t beat by enough to warrant a continued up move.”

Gareth notes that VZ had been one of the better performing charts recently. A small miss on expectations was enough to trigger profit-taking.

But that move creates a new opportunity:

“If we get down to 39, we’re basically at a 10% drop—that would then get my attention for a tradable opportunity.”

He’s watching that level closely for a potential intraday reversal or bounce trade.

RTX (Raytheon)

Down roughly $10 in the pre-market, RTX became a candidate Gareth highlighted for day trading setups. The key levels?

112: double bottom support
109–108: intermediate support
105: gap fill target

If downside momentum continues, traders should track how the price reacts at each of these levels.

6. Tesla Earnings: Setup, Risk, and Reward

Tesla reports after the bell, and while the stock is slightly green pre-market, Gareth isn’t jumping in early.

“If it dumps on earnings, I’m not buying it here… instead I have my new level.”

That level is a trendline that stretches all the way back to COVID-era lows. Gareth calls this an ideal multi-touch trendline setup:

“Low to low to low… and what’s actually fascinating is you could go back and drag this all the way back to the COVID low.”

The price target for that level? $170–168.

“If we were to flush down to this level on earnings… you better believe I’ll be looking for a buying opportunity.”

7. Gold: Is This the Topping Tail?

“Yesterday… I tripled up my short position on gold… It was right at this level.”

Gold pushed higher overnight Monday into Tuesday morning but has since pulled back dramatically. Gareth identifies this as a potentially critical inflection point.

“Now it’s pulling back pretty dramatically… If we were to close at 3,430 or below, you will get a topping tail.”

A topping tail candle, in technical terms, occurs when an asset spikes higher intraday, then closes near the lows. It often signals exhaustion in momentum—especially when paired with longer-term resistance zones.

Gareth uses two key technical frameworks to justify his bearish stance:

Parallel trend lines going back to 2011 and 2020
Inflation-adjusted chart resistance around 3,550–3,575

“If you do inflation adjusted… gold is still not quite at an all-time high.”

That’s a critical distinction. While nominal gold prices have broken records, inflation-adjusted charts show we are still marginally below the 1980 peak.

“That’s one of the reasons why personally I am still a believer that—even though I’m short here—I am a midterm to long-term bull.”

The short? It’s tactical. The long view? It’s structural.

8. Commodities Macro: Silver, Oil, and Natural Gas

Silver: Bullish Base Building?

Silver continues to lag behind gold in relative terms, but it’s quietly forming a base above support.

“It continues to hold steady right above this level… maybe bullish consolidation.”

If gold breaks lower, silver likely follows. But if gold stabilizes and consolidates, silver could be setting up for an explosive catch-up trade.

Oil: Bearish Pattern, But No Trade—Yet

“Still a chance that we rally into this level… before the next move to the downside.”

Gareth identifies the current setup as a bear flag—a short-term uptrend within a longer-term downtrend. He remains patient:

“I’m totally fine with missing a trade… it’s about the few that you get and get paid out on.”

Natural Gas: Breakdown Confirmed

Natural gas finally broke down through a key trendline and confirmed it.

“Eventually we have a high probability of going to this level [around 2.97].”

Gareth is watching this zone carefully. He may go long—but only if the price action supports it:

“I may… but I haven’t made a decision yet… I’ve got to see the price action into that level.”

9. Conclusion: Technical Precision Matters More Than Ever

“The market wants the meat and potatoes. They want facts. They want deals with major countries.”

This episode of Game Plan was all about reading the tape. And Gareth’s lesson is clear: short-term bullish setups can survive deep pullbacks—if key lines hold. Monday’s rally preserved that integrity, and Tuesday’s open confirmed it.

At the same time, Gareth remains macro-cautious: