TRADING GAME PLAN REVEALED - 09/15/2025

The market enters a pivotal week with all eyes on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. While the consensus points toward a 25-basis-point cut, the real story will be told through Chairman Powell's forward guidance. Against this macroeconomic backdrop, key indices are testing remarkable technical patterns that have held for months, creating a fascinating divergence between the broader market and its tech-heavy counterpart. In this morning's TRADING GAME PLAN REVEALED, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, broke down these critical levels and unveiled a high-probability trade setup in one of the market's most-watched stocks.

The Federal Reserve's High-Stakes Decision

This week's main event is undoubtedly the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. After a string of weaker economic data points, the market has firmly priced in a rate cut. The key question is not if they will cut, but by how much, and what their tone will be moving forward.

"Based on all the metrics, it looks like the Fed will be cutting 25 basis points... people have speculated maybe a 50-basis-point cut, but nothing the Fed has done, nor have the bigger investors in the market, begun to factor in those 50 basis points."

This distinction between retail hope and institutional expectation is crucial. While a larger 50-basis-point cut would likely trigger a euphoric, short-term market rally, the smart money is positioned for the more probable 25-basis-point move. The market's reaction, therefore, will hinge less on the cut itself and more on the subsequent communication. As Gareth noted, the key is whether Jerome Powell sounds hawkish or dovish. A dovish tone could fuel the market's "melt-up," while a hawkish stance, even after a cut, could initiate a long-awaited correction. This setup, where the market is coiled at major technical resistance just ahead of the Fed, creates a powder keg environment where the central bank's language could be the spark.

The S&P 500's Astonishing Wedge Pattern

Technical analysis is often a study of patterns and probabilities, and rarely does a pattern present itself as cleanly and for as long as the current wedge on the S&P 500. This formation is a testament to the power of trend lines in containing price action over extended periods.

"Even to me—and I’ve been trading for 26 years now—it still blows my mind how trend lines can keep price intact, or between them, for such long periods of time."

The upper trend line of this wedge, which originated as a support level in late 2023 and early 2024, has now flipped to become formidable resistance. The market has hammered on the "underbelly" of this line repeatedly, and on Friday, it briefly pierced above it before being firmly rejected by the closing bell. This repeated respect for a trend line is what gives it significance. An arbitrary line would be ignored by price, but when the market consistently pivots at a specific level from both above and below, it signals that major players are using it as a key reference point.

For today, the critical level to watch on the S&P 500 is 6,600. A close above this ascending trend line would be a significant bullish signal, while another rejection would reinforce its power as resistance. On the downside, the lower ascending trend line provides strong support, currently sitting around the 6,500 level.

A Tale of Two Indices: The S&P and Nasdaq Divergence

While the S&P 500 is pressed firmly against its overhead resistance, a fascinating divergence is playing out in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). The QQQ is also trading within a large parallel channel but has not yet reached its upper boundary. This creates a compelling potential scenario for the coming days.

"The S&P 500 chart [is] up into resistance and it’s hit its trend line, but what has not hit its trend line yet of resistance? The QQQ."

This divergence suggests a possible path forward: the S&P 500 could stall and consolidate at its current resistance level while the Nasdaq plays catch-up, rallying the final few points to tag its own upper trend line. If both indices arrive at their respective resistance levels simultaneously—perhaps coinciding with the Fed's announcement on Wednesday—it could create the perfect catalyst for a broader market pullback. This type of inter-market analysis, where traders look for confirmation across different indices, is a powerful tool for anticipating major market pivots.

Tesla's Billion-Dollar Catalyst and a Three-Factor Trade Setup

In the world of individual stocks, Tesla is stealing the spotlight. The stock is sharply higher on news that CEO Elon Musk has committed to purchasing $1 billion USD of TSLA shares. This move, likely a "quid pro quo" linked to his massive pay package, is designed to restore investor confidence.

The resulting price surge has pushed Tesla directly into a powerful zone of technical resistance, creating what Gareth identified as a prime shorting opportunity between $430 and $435 USD. This isn't a random guess; it's a trade based on a confluence of three distinct technical factors, which dramatically increases its probability of success.

1. Three-Bar Surge: On the daily chart, Tesla is printing its third consecutive large green candle. In technical analysis, such a pattern often signals exhaustion, as the last of the buyers are pulled into the frenzy just as the move is peaking.
2. Pivot High: The $430-$435 USD zone aligns perfectly with a major prior pivot high on the chart. These historical price levels act as "muscle memory" for the market, often serving as strong resistance on the first retest.
3. Fibonacci Retracement: Measuring from the all-time highs down to the recent April lows, the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level lands squarely in this same price zone. The 78.6% retracement is a key level that often marks the final point of failure for a counter-trend rally before the primary trend resumes.

"For me, that’s a three-factor potential trade: three-bar surge, pivot high, and the 0.786 Fibonacci. That gives about a 75 to 80 percent success rate that we’ll see a pullback—maybe $10, $15, $20."

This disciplined, multi-factor approach is what separates professional trading from gambling. By waiting for multiple, independent signals to align at a specific level, traders can stack the odds firmly in their favor.

Economic Undercurrents and Key Indicators

Beneath the surface of the index charts, economic data continues to paint a picture of a weakening economy. This morning's New York Manufacturing Index came in at -8 versus an expectation of +4, another sign of slowing activity. This feeds into Gareth's long-held thesis of a "two-pronged" economy, where a smaller group of asset holders thrives while a larger portion of the population is already effectively in a recession.

This economic weakness is also reflected in the U.S. Dollar (DXY), which is testing a critical zone between 94 and 96. A confirmed break below 94 would be a technically devastating blow, signaling a potential long-term move back toward the 71 level seen over a decade ago. Similarly, the 10-year Treasury yield continues its descent, with technical analysis pointing toward a target of around 3.6%. While far from the COVID-era lows, this continued drop in yields is a clear signal from the bond market that economic growth is slowing.

Another crucial indicator is copper. Known as "Dr. Copper" for its ability to diagnose the health of the global economy, its price action is a vital tell. Copper is essential for construction and industrial applications. When its chart is weak and forming bearish patterns, it signals falling demand—a harbinger of a weaker economy or a coming recession.

Conclusion: Navigating a Market at a Crossroads

This week places the market at a critical crossroads. The Federal Reserve holds the macroeconomic key, while powerful technical patterns on the major indices provide a clear and objective roadmap. The S&P 500 is testing the limits of a year-long wedge, the Nasdaq is lagging just behind, and high-profile stocks like Tesla are offering textbook, high-probability setups for those who know what to look for.

The ultimate lesson from today's analysis is the power of a disciplined, probability-based approach. By identifying key levels, waiting for multiple factors to align, and understanding the broader economic context, traders can navigate this complex environment with clarity and confidence. As Gareth often says, emotion belongs on social media; the charts provide the purest form of honesty, giving traders the ultimate edge.