GAME PLAN REVEALED: Apple's Tariff Deal, S&P 500 Test & Key Earnings Setups

Good news out of the White House sent markets surging higher this morning, as Apple secured a favorable deal to avoid the brunt of tariffs in exchange for a massive $100 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing. This catalyst is providing a significant tailwind for equities, but as traders, we must look beyond the headlines and to the charts. In this morning's GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, dissected the market's reaction, highlighting the critical technical levels that will ultimately determine the next move and revealing high-probability setups in the wake of a busy earnings slate.

Today, we'll dive deeper into these key themes, exploring the S&P 500’s battle with a formidable resistance level, the art of identifying mature chart patterns, and the powerful trading philosophy that prioritizes short-term probabilities over long-term predictions.

The S&P 500's Critical Test

The market opened with a significant gap up, with S&P 500 futures jumping roughly 40 points from yesterday's close of 6,371. While this bullish momentum is undeniable, it's running directly into a technically significant area. The primary question for traders is whether this news-driven rally has enough strength to negate the bearish chart patterns that have been forming.

As a technician, Gareth pointed to the epic pivot high from last Thursday at 6,427. This level, created by a powerful reversal, stands as a major obstacle.

"As a technician of the charts, what we need to be aware of is whether or not we come up to this high, retest it, and potentially break it... I would expect it to be rejected if we get up there, but anything is possible. And that's why I always say, let the charts tell us. We don't tell the charts."

This perspective is crucial. The wide-range reversal candle from last week, combined with the underlying bear flag formation, remains the dominant technical signal until proven otherwise. A failure to break above 6,427 would validate this bearish structure and suggest the recent strength is merely a rally within a larger downtrend. Conversely, a decisive close above this level would invalidate the pattern and signal a potential new leg higher. The market is at a crossroads, and the charts, not the news, will provide the final verdict.

The Art of Patience: Mature vs. Immature Patterns

One of the most valuable lessons from today's analysis came from the 10-year Treasury yield chart. After a major breakdown, the yield has been consolidating sideways, forming what Gareth described as an "immature bear flag." This distinction between a pattern that is still forming and one that is fully mature is a cornerstone of professional trading.

"Every pattern has an optimal period when it plays out... when you just get a couple candles sideways making that bear flag... that's what we would refer to as an immature pattern. In other words, it's not reaching its optimal kind of growth state for the highest probability outcome yet."

An immature pattern is a signal to take note and monitor, but not to act. There is still a significant risk that the pattern could fail or morph into something else. A mature pattern, on the other hand, has had sufficient time to develop, trapping both buyers and sellers and increasing the probability of a predictable resolution. By waiting for patterns to mature, traders can filter out lower-quality signals and focus their capital on setups with the highest statistical edge. This discipline of patience—resisting the urge to jump into a trade before it's ready—is what separates consistently profitable traders from the crowd.

Earnings Volatility: Uncovering High-Probability Setups

Earnings season always brings volatility, creating a fertile ground for disciplined traders. Gareth sifted through numerous reports to identify a few key setups where technicals aligned to create a high-probability edge.

Apple: The Tariff Catalyst Meets a Gap Fill

With Apple (AAPL) driving the market narrative, its chart is under a microscope. After gapping up on the tariff news, the stock is trading around $218.72. While the news is bullish, a powerful technical resistance level looms just overhead. Gareth identified a clear gap fill at $224, a level where a previous price void is likely to act as a magnet and a point of rejection. For short-term traders, a push into the $224 level presents a high-probability setup for a fade, anticipating a pullback once the gap is filled.

Fortinet: A "Scene of the Crime" Bounce

Fortinet (FTNT) offered a textbook example of a key technical principle after dropping over 20% on earnings. Amid the carnage, Gareth pinpointed a beautiful support level at $73.50. This isn't just a random price; it's the "scene of the crime."

"This is a former major move up high, pulled back high, pulled back. So basically it hit it three times, then took a leg lower, then pushed up, broke out. And then look at how it reestablished this level here. Once it broke out, it tested, retraced to the scene of the crime... and then off it ran."

This history makes $73.50 an incredibly strong level. A price that was once major resistance, once broken, often becomes major support. For traders who practice counter-trend strategies, buying a stock that is down 20% into a multi-factor support level like this offers a compelling risk/reward opportunity for at least an intraday bounce.

DoorDash: A Masterclass in Fading Strength

On the opposite end of the spectrum is DoorDash (DASH). The stock was up significantly post-earnings, priming a potential short setup. Gareth highlighted a beautiful parallel channel on the daily chart, with the upper trendline resistance sitting at $284. While the stock had pulled back from its pre-market highs, the level remains valid. Should DASH rally back to $284, it would represent a prime opportunity to short the stock in anticipation of a rejection from the channel's ceiling. This counter-trend approach—buying weakness into support and selling strength into resistance—is a hallmark of Gareth's methodology.

The Weight Loss Drug Wars: Eli Lilly vs. Novo Nordisk

The pharmaceutical space provided a fascinating case study in competitive dynamics. Eli Lilly (LLY) was hammered after its oral weight loss drug produced disappointing results. In direct response, its competitor Novo Nordisk (NVO) soared. This event validated a recent trade in the Verified Investing Smart Money Stocks & ETFs service, where the Dividend Trader had bought NVO at a key pivot low just one day prior, booking a gain of over 10% in less than 24 hours on the news.

The Trader's Edge: Why Short-Term Analysis Trumps Long-Term Prophecy

Perhaps the most profound insight from today's GAME PLAN was Gareth's commentary on the nature of market prediction. He drew a sharp contrast between the high-probability nature of short-term technical analysis and the futility of long-term forecasting.

"I love those analysts out there that give like, you know, oh the S&P by next year will be at 7,000 or 10,000 or 4,000, whatever it is, they honestly have no clue... When you're projecting out over the course of a year or five years or 10 years, how many things will happen during that period that could screw up your model?"

Wars, economic policy shifts, tariffs—countless unpredictable variables can render a long-term forecast useless. Short-term analysis, however, operates within a much smaller window where these variables are less likely to interfere. This allows technical patterns and price action to play out with a much higher degree of reliability.

"Short term is much easier because there's less things that can happen in that short amount of time that can cause your model to deviate... if you use technical analysis very accurately with a high win rate, you can pinpoint where levels will hit."

This is the trader's edge: focusing on a timeframe where probabilities can be accurately calculated and consistently exploited.

Reading the Macro Tea Leaves

While individual charts are paramount, the broader macro environment provides essential context.

Labor Market: This morning's jobless claims of 226,000 were benign. Combined with last week's weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls report, a clear picture emerges: hiring is slowing, but companies are not yet resorting to mass firings. This "Goldilocks" scenario—an economy slowing enough to justify a potential Fed rate cut but not falling off a cliff—is generally supportive for equities.
Bitcoin: The crypto leader is pushing higher but approaching its first major test. The support line of its prior bear flag, around the $117,000 level, is now poised to act as significant resistance. This "retrace to the scene of the crime" will be a major hurdle for bulls.
Precious Metals: Gold remains capped by resistance around $3,415, while silver is pushing toward its own resistance at $39.50. Should the stock market's "risk-on" sentiment continue, it could create headwinds for safe-haven assets like gold.

Conclusion: Let the Charts Be Your Guide

Today's market action is a perfect illustration of the tug-of-war between news-driven narratives and pure technical analysis. While the Apple deal provides a bullish catalyst, the S&P 500 is simultaneously testing a technically formidable resistance zone defined by a powerful reversal candle. The outcome of this battle will set the tone for the coming days.

By focusing on mature patterns, identifying key "scene of the crime" levels, and adhering to a disciplined, short-term, probability-based approach, traders can navigate this complex environment with clarity. The headlines will always generate noise, but as Gareth reminds us, it's the charts that are truly in charge.