My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 02/23/2026: 15% Tariff Shock, S&P Head and Shoulders Risk, Bitcoin and Gold Trade Levels

The markets opened this morning to a landscape drastically altered by weekend geopolitical maneuvers. With the sudden implementation of a 15% blanket tariff across all nations, the delicate balance of trade agreements has been upended, reintroducing a variable that markets despise most: uncertainty. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, dissected the ramifications of this policy shift, the resulting technical damage, and the specific levels where disciplined traders can find opportunity amidst the volatility.

The Tariff Shock and Market Uncertainty

The primary driver of today's price action stems from a significant shift in U.S. trade policy. While the Supreme Court had previously struck down initial tariff attempts, the executive branch responded over the weekend with a sweeping 15% blanket tariff. This move effectively nullifies previous trade deals where allies had negotiated lower rates, creating a chaotic environment for global commerce.

The immediate reaction in the markets—a sharp selloff in futures followed by a partial recovery—illustrates the psychological impact of this news. Markets can price in bad news, but they struggle to price in the unknown. The questions now swirling around trading desks are numerous: Will this escalate into a broader trade war? Will there be refunds for the revenue accumulated? How will this impact an inflation rate that is already showing signs of resurgence?

Gareth emphasized the gravity of this uncertainty:

"The market, again, it's the uncertainty. Markets do not like the unknown. Is it going to escalate? What's going to happen? How about these refunds potentially?… Lots of uncertainty."

This policy shift complicates the inflation narrative significantly. Just as investors were hoping that the Supreme Court's rejection of previous tariffs might cool inflationary pressures, the new blanket tariff acts as a potential accelerant for prices. This is particularly concerning given the recent PCE data, favored by the Federal Reserve, which already indicates that inflation is moving up rather than cooling down.

S&P 500: Distribution and the Head and Shoulders Pattern

Turning to the technical structure of the S&P 500, the charts reveal a market that is struggling under the weight of "distribution"—a phase where institutional investors offload positions to retail buyers while narratives remain bullish.

The S&P 500 daily chart shows the index trapped within a parallel channel, suggesting that upside potential is strictly limited by technical resistance. More alarmingly, a classic bearish reversal pattern is taking shape: the Head and Shoulders.

This pattern consists of three peaks: a higher high (the head) flanked by two lower highs (the shoulders). The critical level to watch is the "neckline," which currently acts as support. While this neckline has not yet broken, its integrity is being tested.

"You have your shoulder here, you have your head here, and you have your secondary shoulder there. Now, the neckline has not broken yet… But if this were to break this week, you then have a downside target, which would be down in this range on the S&P just below 6,600."

This technical setup provides a clear roadmap for traders. As long as the neckline holds, the pattern is not confirmed. However, a decisive break below this level would trigger a measured move lower, targeting the 6,600 area. This level isn't arbitrary; it represents a calculated target based on the height of the pattern, providing a precise objective for short sellers and a warning for long-only investors.

The Institutional Agenda

Gareth also touched upon the psychology behind the current market resilience. Despite the bearish technicals, the market hasn't collapsed. This behavior is typical of a distribution phase, where institutions need to keep the "buy the dip" narrative alive to ensure there is liquidity to sell into.

"Institutions remember, they want to keep the narratives bullish because if they don't keep the narratives like the-market-will-never-go-down narrative, then retail won't be buying in and they can't offload their shares."

Understanding this dynamic is crucial. It explains why hype often persists even as technical structures deteriorate. By relying on "pure" charts rather than social media narratives or news headlines, traders can align themselves with the "casino" (the house) rather than the gambler.

The Yield-Market Correlation Flip

A fascinating anomaly has emerged in the relationship between the 10-year Treasury yield and equity markets. Historically, rising yields (a selloff in bonds) have pressured stocks, as higher interest rates increase borrowing costs and discount future cash flows. However, in recent weeks, this correlation has flipped.

Currently, a "green candle" on the 10-year yield (rising yields) is correlating with upward moves in the stock market. Conversely, falling yields are coinciding with market weakness. This morning, as yields trade lower (red candle), S&P futures are also in the red.

This shift suggests that the market's primary fear has transitioned from "high interest rates" to "economic weakness." The 15% blanket tariff threatens to weaken both the global and domestic economy. In this context, falling yields are being interpreted not as a relief for borrowers, but as a signal that the bond market anticipates an economic slowdown or recession.

Strategic Opportunities in Individual Names

While the broader indices face headwinds, volatility creates specific opportunities in individual stocks. Gareth highlighted several names where price action is approaching high-probability technical levels.

Novo Nordisk: The Unwind of Hype

Novo Nordisk, a darling of the pharmaceutical sector due to its weight-loss drugs, faced a massive 15% pre-market decline following a study that showed its latest drug underperforming competitors. While the headline news is negative, the technical trader looks for the level where the emotional selling exhausts itself.

On the weekly chart, a major support level exists around $40, with a prime swing trade zone between $37 and $38. This level is significant for two reasons:

1. Structural Support: It aligns with previous pivot highs that should now act as support.
2. Psychological Reset: A move to this level represents a 100% retracement of the "weight loss drug hype" move.

"This to me is a very good swing tradable level… this would be essentially a 100% unwind of the weight loss drug. And again, the excitement over it. So, at this point, we should see essentially that weight loss premium fully pulled out of the stock."

This setup illustrates the discipline of waiting for the "fat pitch." Rather than trying to catch a falling knife at the first sign of a drop, the patient trader waits for the price to return to a structural breakout zone where the risk-reward ratio is highly favorable.

CrowdStrike: Navigating the AI Fear Trade

The software sector has been battered recently by the "AI Fear Trade"—the narrative that advanced artificial intelligence will render many SaaS (Software as a Service) companies obsolete. CrowdStrike has been a victim of this sentiment, breaking key trendlines that previously signaled a top.

For active traders, the distinction between a "day trade" and a "swing trade" is vital. Gareth identified a potential day trade level around $370. This area represents a "gap fill" and a zone of historical chop and consolidation.

"I'm going to be monitoring this level. There's a gap right down here, and see all this sideways chop right in this vicinity… It's not a big gap, so it's not a significant factor, but it does catch my eye with the other factors here for a day trade."

This nuance is critical: a level suitable for a quick intraday bounce (day trade) is not necessarily strong enough to hold a position overnight or for several days (swing trade). Recognizing the difference prevents traders from turning a short-term trade into a long-term bag-holding situation.

Roblox: Accumulation Zones

Roblox presents a different scenario. After a positive earnings reaction, the stock has pulled back, forming a bear flag that suggests further downside. However, this downside opens the door for accumulation at a value zone.

Gareth identified the $50 to $43 range as a "huge accumulation zone." This area includes pivot tops at $46.75 and a gap fill at $43. For swing traders, this offers a predefined area to build a position, anticipating that the post-earnings pullback will eventually find support at these structural levels.

Safe Havens and Crypto: Bitcoin and Gold

In times of geopolitical uncertainty and tariff wars, assets that exist outside the traditional fiat system often come into focus.

Bitcoin: The Bullish Consolidation

Despite bearish sentiment on social media, Bitcoin's technical structure remains constructive. The cryptocurrency is holding major support at $66,000 and trading within a bullish consolidation pattern.

"As of now, the bullish pattern is still intact… Eventually, if it holds this pattern, you get a breakout and move back to about $80,000 on Bitcoin, maybe as high as $85,000."

This analysis reinforces the importance of "giving the chart time to breathe." Intra-day dips can look terrifying, but if the closing price maintains the structural pattern, the probability remains to the upside. However, Gareth noted that this is a near-term bullish view; if the pattern fails, the probabilities would immediately shift.

Gold: The Tariff Beneficiary

Gold is acting as a classic safe haven in response to the tariff news. The metal is testing near-term resistance at $5,100. A confirmed close above this level would open the door to $5,400 and potentially the all-time highs at $5,600.

The logic here is straightforward: tariffs introduce currency instability and economic drag, conditions under which hard assets like gold typically thrive.

Silver: The Divergence

Interestingly, Silver is not mirroring Gold's bullish breakout potential. It remains trapped in a sideways range between $70 support and $92 resistance. More concerning for silver bulls is the longer-term "bear flag" formation on the chart.

"The bigger pattern, if we understand our pattern formations… It's forming a bearish pattern, which generally yields a move to the downside… to as low as $50 to $54."

This divergence between Gold and Silver highlights the industrial nature of Silver. While Gold is a pure monetary safe haven, Silver is also an industrial metal. If tariffs weaken the global economy, industrial demand for Silver drops, weighing on the price even as investment demand might rise.

The Mathematics of Trading: Probability vs. Risk-Reward

Perhaps the most valuable lesson from today's session was the breakdown of the decision-making matrix used by professional traders. It is not enough to simply like a stock; the trade must make mathematical sense based on two variables: Probability and Risk-Reward.

Gareth outlined a sliding scale for trade acceptance:

1. Low Probability: If the probability is not significantly in your favor, the trade is a "no-go," regardless of the potential payout.
2. Moderate Probability (70%): If the chart suggests a 70% chance of success, the trader requires a better risk-reward ratio (e.g., risking 1 to make 2) to justify the entry.
3. High Probability (80-85%): If the technical confluence is extremely strong, a trader might accept a 1:1 risk-reward ratio.

"If probability starts getting towards 70% or higher… then I start to say, okay, well, what's the risk-reward? And if the risk is 1 versus reward of 2, at 70%, I'm probably taking that."

This framework transforms trading from a guessing game into a business of probability management. It explains why a trader might pass on a volatile mover like Natural Gas—where the "chop" offers no clear probability edge—while waiting patiently for a stock like Novo Nordisk to hit a specific price point where the math aligns.

Conclusion

As we navigate a week defined by new tariff regimes and economic uncertainty, the charts remain our most reliable compass. The S&P 500 is teasing a breakdown of a major Head and Shoulders pattern, while sectors like software and biotech offer specific, level-based opportunities for the disciplined.

By ignoring the noise of social media and focusing strictly on price action, support/resistance levels, and the interplay between probability and risk-reward, investors can navigate this volatility with confidence. Whether it is waiting for the $37 level on Novo Nordisk or watching the $66,000 support on Bitcoin, the game plan is clear: let the price come to you, and execute only when the probabilities are undeniably in your favor.