My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 03/09/2026: Oil Topping Tail Triggers S&P Breakdown as Bitcoin Holds Strong

The financial markets were jolted overnight by a sudden escalation in geopolitical tensions, sending shockwaves across multiple asset classes. With the outbreak of conflict involving the US, Iran, and Israel, traders witnessed extreme volatility: oil prices spiked as much as 20%, while equity futures faced severe downward pressure. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, provided a masterclass on navigating these turbulent waters, stripping away the emotional headlines to focus purely on what the charts are signaling.

Today's analysis dives deep into the mechanics of parabolic moves, the surprising resilience of certain crypto assets, and the macroeconomic domino effect of surging energy prices.

The Oil Shock and the Anatomy of a Topping Tail

The most dramatic price action overnight occurred in the energy sector. Crude oil, which closed Friday at $91 and change, gapped up to $98 when futures opened at 6:00 p.m. Eastern. Driven by fear and short-covering, the commodity then squeezed to a multi-year high of $120 per barrel before sharply reversing course.

Currently trading around $101 per barrel—still up just under 11%—oil is forming what could be one of the most critical technical patterns for traders to watch: a daily topping tail.

"This candle formation, folks, right now is a topping tale," Gareth explained. "Highest point in recent history… then you sell off. If we close in the lower 25% of the candle, that fits the criteria for a daily topping tail."

A topping tail is a massive reversal signal in technical analysis. It represents a total shift in intraday psychology. The long "tail" or "wick" at the top of the candle shows that buyers aggressively pushed the price up, but by the end of the session, sellers completely overwhelmed them, forcing the price back down to the lower quadrant of the daily range.

For this specific setup to confirm on oil, the price must close below $103 per barrel today. If it does, historical probabilities strongly favor a near-term top. Gareth noted that while he began scaling into short positions late last week, he added to his position during the overnight spike, bringing his dollar-cost average up. His ultimate target for this trade is a reversion back to the $80 to $75 per barrel range over the next month.

The Silver Precedent

To illustrate the power of a topping tail, Gareth pointed to a historical example in silver. When silver previously hit all-time highs, it formed an identical long-tailed candle that closed in the lower 25% of its range.

What followed was a textbook technical rejection. While subsequent days saw minor retracements that even pierced the high of the tail intraday, the daily candle never closed above that topping tail high. Once that resistance was solidified, silver experienced a massive drawdown. This historical context is vital for traders currently watching oil; it proves that even in the face of terrifying headlines, technical exhaustion patterns frequently dictate the true trend.

Equities at the Brink: Confirming the Breakdown

While oil was surging, equity futures were collapsing. The NASDAQ futures plunged over 3% in the overnight session, dropping a staggering 700 points before recovering to trade down roughly 1.05%. The S&P 500 futures mirrored this price action, recovering from deep overnight lows to trade down about 1%.

However, the broader technical damage on the S&P 500 may have already been done last Friday.

"Look at how many times we hammered on this technical support level over and over again," Gareth noted, pointing to the daily chart. "What do we talk about? The more you hammer on a key level, the more likely it breaks because the level weakens. It finally gave way on Friday."

This is a fundamental principle of technical analysis: support is not a concrete floor; it is a pane of glass. Every time the price strikes it, the glass cracks a little more. Friday's close below that key technical level was a major warning sign, completing a rounded top pattern that classically indicates institutional distribution.

The key for today's session is confirmation. To confirm Friday's breakdown, the S&P 500 must print a daily close below Friday's closure. If that confirmation occurs, the probabilities heavily favor a measured move down to a target of 6,550. If the market manages to close above Friday's lows, it could spark a near-term relief rally, though previous support will now act as overhead resistance.

The Macro Domino Effect: Yields and Inflation

To understand why the equity markets are under such intense pressure, traders must look beyond the immediate geopolitical headlines and focus on the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield has been climbing back toward its highs, creating a toxic environment for growth stocks and broader equities.

The mechanism here is entirely driven by inflation expectations. Earlier in the year, the market had priced in multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts, assuming inflation was conquered. However, recent PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) and PPI (Producer Price Index) data came in alarmingly hot.

What makes this truly concerning for the macro picture is the timeline. Those hot inflation prints occurred when oil was trading between $65 and $70 per barrel. With oil now trading between $100 and $110 per barrel, the forward-looking inflation metrics are almost guaranteed to spike. Higher energy costs bleed into every sector of the economy, from manufacturing to transportation to consumer goods. As inflation expectations rise, the 10-year yield must grind higher to compensate, completely removing the possibility of near-term Fed rate cuts.

Bitcoin's Surprising Resilience and Contrarian Strength

In a market environment where traditional safe havens are struggling and equities are breaking down, the cryptocurrency sector is providing a fascinating divergence.

"Believe it or not, since the war broke out with Iran between the US, Iran, and Israel, Bitcoin has actually been the best performing asset between gold, silver, and the stock market," Gareth revealed. "That's telling us something, at least to me."

Bitcoin is currently trading around $68,500, showing incredible relative strength. From a technical perspective, it recently attempted a breakout, failed to confirm, and pulled back into its dominant consolidation pattern. However, the setup remains highly constructive. If Bitcoin can push up and take out the $74,200 resistance level, the charts point to a measured move target of $80,000 to $85,000.

The Psychology of Extreme Sentiment

One of the most powerful tools in a professional trader's arsenal is contrarian sentiment analysis. Currently, retail and media bearishness on Bitcoin is at extreme levels. For a seasoned chartist, this is a highly bullish indicator. When everyone who wants to sell has already sold, the path of least resistance is up.

Acting on this technical and psychological confluence, Gareth added to the Bitcoin holdings in his smart money crypto service during the overnight panic, buying just below $66,000. The portfolio now holds a 40% allocation to Bitcoin with an average entry price around $69,000, positioning perfectly for the anticipated run to the $80,000 level.

Gold and Silver: The Safe Haven Illusion

Traditionally, the outbreak of war in the Middle East would send precious metals into a parabolic, sustained uptrend. Yet, looking at the charts today, both gold and silver are painting a very different picture.

Gold recently tested a major resistance level identified by Gareth last week, reversed sharply, and broke down. It is now forming a bear flag—a bearish continuation pattern characterized by a sharp drop (the flagpole) followed by a slight upward, parallel consolidation (the flag). Silver is exhibiting the exact same choppy, sideways bear flag pattern, with technical targets pointing to a drop down to the $70 to $71 range.

Why are precious metals failing to act as safe havens during a major geopolitical crisis? The answer lies in market psychology and positioning.

"Because gold got so mainstream, so many people buying it, so many people FOMOing in, it went from being a safe-haven asset to, believe it or not, a little bit more of a risk asset," Gareth explained.

When an asset becomes overcrowded with "weak hands"—retail traders chasing momentum rather than institutional investors seeking wealth preservation—it behaves like a risk-on asset. Before gold can resume its long-term trajectory as a true safe haven, it must flush out these late buyers. The charts are signaling that this flush is currently underway.

Individual Stock Opportunities: HIMS, Airlines, and AI

While macro indices and commodities dominate the headlines, individual equities are providing massive volatility and trading opportunities for those who know where to look.

The HIMS Squeeze

HIMS made a staggering 35% to 40% move today, surging from a Friday close of $15.80 up to $23 following news of a deal with Novo Nordisk to sell weight-loss drugs. This highlights the power of beaten-down stocks; when sentiment is uniformly negative, any positive catalyst can trigger a violent short squeeze.

While aggressive traders might look for a short entry around $25, the higher-probability technical pivot point—and the level Gareth is patiently waiting for—sits significantly higher, between $32.50 and $33. Waiting for these precise levels prevents traders from stepping in front of a runaway freight train.

Airlines and the Oil Correlation

For traders looking to capitalize on a potential oil topping tail, airline stocks offer a compelling secondary play. Companies like Delta Airlines and United Airlines have been battered by the surge in energy prices, with Delta looking to gap lower today. Because jet fuel is one of their largest operational expenses, these stocks trade in an inverse correlation to crude oil. If oil confirms its topping tail and begins its descent toward $80, these beaten-down airline charts become highly attractive bounce candidates.

The Oracle of AI

Finally, the tech sector is bracing for Oracle's earnings report, due Tuesday after the close. As a major software and data center player, Oracle is a bellwether for the entire Artificial Intelligence space. With AI stocks having been absolutely crushed in recent weeks, this earnings report will be the pivotal catalyst determining whether the sector gets a much-needed relief rally or breaks down to new lows. Mega-caps are already showing stress, with Alphabet trying to break lower, though Meta Platforms is currently managing to hold its long-term technical trend line.

Conclusion: Trusting the Charts Over the Chaos

Days featuring war headlines, 20% commodity spikes, and 700-point overnight futures drops are designed to trigger maximum emotional response from retail investors. Fear and greed take over, leading to impulsive decisions and blown-up accounts.

The antidote to this chaos is strict, unwavering adherence to technical analysis.

"The chart is my factor that I follow. It's my Bible," Gareth emphasized. "I could think in my gut. I could think in my heart. I could think in my brain. The markets don't care… the chart gives us the ability to have probability in our favor."

Whether it's waiting for oil to close below $103 to confirm a topping tail, demanding a daily close below support to confirm the S&P 500's breakdown, or patiently waiting for HIMS to reach a $32.50 pivot point, successful trading requires discipline. By stripping away the narratives and focusing purely on price action, support, resistance, and historical patterns, traders can navigate even the most volatile geopolitical events with clarity and confidence.