My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 10/24/2025: CPI Skepticism Tests S&P Trendline as Bonds Reject Data and Value Rotation Builds

In this morning's My Trading Game Plan show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, cut straight to the chase, diving into a market environment rife with questionable economic data, critical technical inflection points, and a growing divergence between market narratives and price action. With the latest CPI report coming in suspiciously positive just days before a Federal Reserve meeting, traders are left to navigate a landscape where the charts may be the only source of truth.

A "Gloriously Great" CPI Number

The headline event of the morning was the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which came in better than expected across the board. The year-over-year CPI printed at 3.0% versus a 3.1% forecast, while the core reading also landed at 3.0% against a 3.1% expectation. Month-over-month figures were similarly rosy, with headline CPI at 0.3% versus 0.4% and core at 0.2% versus 0.3%.

On the surface, this is welcome news for a market hoping for a more dovish Federal Reserve. However, the timing and nature of the release have raised serious questions about its credibility. As Gareth pointed out, this was a predictable outcome.

"Yesterday I said guys, if they're not releasing the one number during the government shutdown that they're releasing, they're not going to release it and it will be hotter than expected. In fact, I've mockingly said I have my magic 8 ball here and it's telling me it's going to be one tenth better across the board and that's exactly what it is and I shouldn't be able to predict these numbers folks."

This isn't the first time we've seen conveniently timed data. Gareth drew a direct parallel to a "crazy jobless claims number" that appeared six days before the last Fed meeting, only to be revised back down afterward. The release of this CPI data just five days before the next Fed decision fits a pattern that suggests a potential effort to influence policy.

The broader implication of this trend is a potential erosion of trust in U.S. economic data on the global stage. When data becomes predictable to the point of being formulaic, it loses its power and credibility. This feeds into the larger narrative of de-dollarization, where other nations may begin to view U.S. economic reports with the same skepticism often reserved for data from countries like China. As Gareth noted, "You don't want to lose that confidence in the trust, the trust of the dollar, the trust of the financial system here in the U.S. is paramount to it remaining the biggest player in the global picture of the world."

The Charts: Our Most Honest View

While the debate over data integrity is important for the long-term health of the market, for traders, the immediate focus must be on price action. Regardless of the narrative, the market's reaction is the only thing that matters when capital is on the line.

"What matters is the price action, because whatever I think doesn't matter if the markets are going to trade off of that data, which they are right now… When it comes to trading, you have to put that aside and say, okay, where are we on the charts, what are my levels to watch."

The S&P 500 is currently at a critical juncture. After rallying yesterday, it is pushing up against a key descending trend line that has served as major resistance. Gareth described the current market positioning using a powerful analogy:

• The Home: The previous trading range where the market was stable and safe.
• The Warning Zone: The area between the recent lows and the overhead trend line. The market has left its "home" but is not yet in extreme danger. This is where we are now.
• The Danger Zone: A break below the recent lows would put the market into a more perilous environment, akin to a "forest with lots of wild animals."

The primary question for today's session is whether the S&P 500 can close decisively back above this trend line, re-entering the safety of its "home." A failure to do so would keep it in the warning zone, vulnerable to another downturn.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) faces a similar, if not more formidable, challenge. It is approaching a confluence of two major trend lines, creating a thick band of overhead resistance. The ability of the market to overcome these technical barriers will be the true test of this data-driven rally.

The Bond Market's Silent Verdict

If the equity market is reacting with cautious optimism to the CPI data, the bond market is signaling deep skepticism. The 10-year Treasury yield, which should theoretically fall significantly on cooler inflation data, was barely changed. This muted reaction is incredibly telling.

"What this tells me is that, number one, the bond market doesn't believe those numbers, number two, this is telling me the Fed is not going to do anything different next week than they were, which also tells me the Fed probably does not believe these numbers."

The bond market is often considered the "smart money" in the room. Its participants are typically more focused on long-term economic fundamentals and Fed policy than the more sentiment-driven equity markets. When yields fail to react to a major inflation report, it sends a powerful message: the big institutional players are not buying the narrative. The U.S. dollar showed a similarly lackluster reaction, further reinforcing the idea that the "smart money" sees this data as noise rather than a meaningful signal of a change in the economic trajectory.

Earnings Movers: From Government Favorites to Beaten-Down Bargains

Earnings season continues to provide company-specific volatility. Intel reported what appeared to be strong earnings, but the context is crucial. With significant government backing and investment, Intel (INTC) has become what Gareth describes as "too favored to fail." The expectation was that they would deliver a positive report, by any means necessary. The stock is gapping higher but running into a resistance zone between $41.70 and $42.00 USD, with a larger gap fill just under $44.00 USD.

On the other end of the spectrum, Deckers Outdoor Corp. (the maker of UGG boots) is getting crushed, with the stock trading down to $89 USD from over $100 USD after issuing light full-year guidance. This is where tactical opportunities arise for disciplined traders. Gareth has identified a major support level at a gap fill from October 2023, located around $80.00 USD. A drop to this level could present not just a day trade, but a compelling swing trade opportunity.

Ford (F) is trading slightly higher after its earnings, but much of the positive news for U.S. automakers was likely priced in after GM's massive 10-12% post-earnings rally. Ford's smaller move is simply making up the difference now that its own positive results are confirmed.

A Strategic Shift to "Unsexy" Value

Perhaps the most important strategic insight from today's analysis is the discussion of a portfolio rotation away from high-flying, high-risk momentum names and into beaten-down, fundamentally sound companies. The recent, shocking 41% collapse in OKLO, a previously hot nuclear reactor stock, serves as a stark reminder of the risks inherent in chasing parabolic moves.

"Sometimes it's not about how much money you make, it's about how much money you don't lose," Gareth emphasized.

This philosophy is leading him to focus on "unsexy" names that offer better risk-reward profiles. Examples include:

• Procter & Gamble (PG): A consumer staple that has been largely ignored in the AI frenzy, now getting a modest bounce on earnings.
• Chipotle (CMG): Bouncing off a huge support level that dates back to 2021.
• Cava (CAVA): Exhibiting a V-bottom recovery from a major support level.
• Pfizer (PFE): Trading at a forward P/E ratio of 8, offering a 7% dividend yield, and setting up with a good technical chart after retracing to the "scene of the crime" of its government deal announcement.

These companies may not offer the explosive upside of an AI darling, but in a market where valuations are stretched and "air pockets" can lead to rapid, brutal corrections, their relative safety and value become increasingly attractive.

Commodities and Crypto: Patterns to Watch

The technical picture in other key markets provides further clues:

• Gold and Silver: Both precious metals are forming classic bear flag patterns after their recent sharp declines. These consolidations—a narrow, sideways channel following a strong down move—typically resolve with another leg lower.
• Oil: Crude oil has stalled at a resistance level formed by recent low pivots. While it's at resistance, Gareth noted the risk-to-reward is not yet compelling for a short position. A move higher, perhaps to the $67.50 USD level, would present a more attractive setup.
• Bitcoin: The cryptocurrency remains locked below a critical pivot line. The setup is beautifully simple: as long as it stays below this line, probability favors a move lower. A confirmed break back above would open the door for a potential retest of all-time highs. This black-and-white level provides clarity in a noisy market.

Conclusion: Navigating a Market of Skepticism

Today's market is a fascinating case study in the battle between narrative and reality. We have an official inflation report painting a rosy picture, yet the bond market's reaction suggests it's a work of fiction. Equity indices are pressing against make-or-break technical levels, fueled by this data, but the underlying message from other asset classes is one of caution.

For traders and investors, the key takeaway is to filter out the noise and focus on what can be verified: the price action on the charts. By identifying clear technical levels, understanding the messages from different markets, and strategically positioning in areas of the market that offer value rather than just momentum, one can navigate this complex environment. Whether this rally has legs or is merely a data-induced sugar high, a disciplined, probability-based approach remains the surest path to long-term success.