S&P 500 Bull Flag Holds as Nvidia, Oil and Bitcoin Face Critical Levels

The S&P 500 enters the final week of October with its bullish technical structure still intact, even as several areas of the market are beginning to show signs of weakness. Oil prices are pulling back, Treasury yields remain elevated, and technology stocks are sending mixed signals. For Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, the key question heading into a week of major economic catalysts is whether the broader market can maintain its strength as individual sectors face growing pressure.

During the October 26 edition of My Trading Game Plan, Gareth outlined the technical levels that could determine the next moves in equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. His framework centers on confirmation, market psychology, and the relationship between price action and risk. With Federal Reserve policy, inflation expectations, and major technology earnings in focus, traders have several potential catalysts ahead. The charts provide the levels needed to evaluate how those developments are being priced into the market.

S&P 500 Bull Flag Remains Intact Ahead of Major Market Catalysts

Despite concerns surrounding interest rates, geopolitical developments, and the approaching midterm elections, the S&P 500 continues to hold within a bullish consolidation pattern. The index began Monday modestly higher, maintaining the structure of a bull flag following its earlier advance. With the market approximately 2.75% below its all-time high, the broader technical picture continues to lean bullish as long as the consolidation holds.

A bull flag develops when price consolidates following a strong upward move. The pattern can indicate that buyers are absorbing selling pressure before another potential advance, although a breakout requires confirmation. Gareth identified a specific support area that would invalidate the current formation if broken. A sustained move below that boundary would weaken the bullish setup and increase the likelihood of a deeper pullback.

The important takeaway is that the market has yet to confirm a breakdown despite several potential headwinds. That leaves the upside scenario intact for now, while the lower boundary of the bull flag provides a clear reference for evaluating risk. Gareth emphasized that trading involves probabilities rather than certainty. The advantage comes from recognizing the conditions that support a setup and identifying when those conditions have changed.

Crude Oil Pulls Back as Geopolitical Risk Premium Eases

Oil prices moved lower Monday morning following a period of heightened geopolitical concern. Crude had attracted buying interest ahead of the weekend as traders considered the possibility of further escalation in the Middle East. That uncertainty encouraged defensive positioning, including short covering and speculative buying, helping push prices toward a significant technical resistance trendline.

With the anticipated escalation failing to materialize over the weekend, some of that positioning began to unwind. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading near \$101.50 in the morning analysis, reflecting a pullback as the market reassessed near-term geopolitical risks. The move illustrates how quickly a market can reverse when traders have already positioned for an event that does not develop as expected.

Gareth's analysis connected this reversal to the broader equity market. Lower oil prices can ease inflation concerns and reduce pressure on consumers and businesses, particularly when Treasury yields are already elevated. However, the durability of that relief depends on whether crude continues to retreat from resistance or finds renewed buying interest. The technical resistance area remains important because another advance in energy prices could complicate the outlook for equities.

10-Year Treasury Yield Near 5% Keeps Pressure on Stock Valuations

The 10-year Treasury yield remains close to the psychologically important 5% level, making the bond market a central part of the equity outlook. Elevated yields can create valuation pressure for growth stocks by increasing discount rates and making fixed-income alternatives more competitive. At the same time, the pace and reason behind changes in yields can be as important as the level itself.

Gareth highlighted the relative stability in Treasury yields as a constructive near-term development for equities. A sharp move higher could renew concerns about inflation, government borrowing, and tighter financial conditions. A rapid decline, particularly if driven by weakening economic expectations, could raise a different set of concerns about growth and recession risk. For now, a relatively stable yield environment gives equity traders a more predictable backdrop.

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, adds another perspective on investor positioning. Gareth uses extremes in volatility as potential contrarian signals, particularly when unusually low readings suggest widespread complacency. Historically, readings around 10 to 15 can indicate that investors are pricing in limited near-term risk, while sharp spikes often accompany heightened fear. These readings require context, but they help traders assess whether sentiment is becoming stretched relative to the underlying market structure.

Brazil ETF EWZ Approaches \$28 Support After Election-Related Selloff

Brazilian equities were another focus of Gareth's morning analysis following a sharp repricing tied to political developments. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) experienced substantial selling pressure as traders reassessed expectations for the country's economic and business environment. The decline reversed a significant portion of the optimism that had previously supported Brazilian stocks.

From a technical perspective, Gareth identified a long-term trendline near \$28 on EWZ. The line connects historical pivot areas and represents a potential support zone following the selloff. A reaction from this level could indicate that selling pressure is beginning to ease, while a decisive breakdown would weaken the case for a near-term recovery.

Petrobras also came under pressure, with the decline erasing much of its preceding advance. Gareth highlighted the \$20 area as a potential technical reference for a short-term trading setup. Both charts demonstrate the importance of allowing price to reach established support before evaluating a possible reversal. Political headlines can accelerate market moves, but the quality of a technical setup depends on how price behaves once it reaches the relevant level.

Nvidia Stock Tests Rising Trendline as AI Sector Weakness Broadens

Technology stocks continue to show a meaningful divergence beneath the major index averages. Nasdaq 100 futures were pointing to a stronger opening Monday, yet several companies associated with artificial intelligence infrastructure have already experienced substantial declines. This divergence raises questions about the durability of the sector's leadership, particularly if weakness begins spreading to its largest components.

Nvidia (NVDA) is central to that assessment. The stock tested a major ascending trendline on Friday, placing it near an important technical decision point. Gareth identified the trendline as a significant support reference because Nvidia's strength has helped sustain confidence in the broader AI investment theme. A confirmed break below the trendline would weaken Nvidia's technical structure and could increase pressure on semiconductor stocks and technology-heavy indices.

The distinction between sector leadership and underlying participation is particularly relevant here. Stocks such as Seagate Technology (STX), Western Digital (WDC), and Micron Technology (MU) have already shown weakness, while Nvidia has remained comparatively resilient. If Nvidia begins to follow those names lower, the market could lose an important source of support. If the trendline holds, the existing uptrend retains a technical foundation.

CoreWeave Stock Near \$50 as Bearish Sentiment Intensifies

CoreWeave (CRWV) presents a different setup within the AI infrastructure space. The stock has experienced a substantial decline, reflecting growing skepticism toward the economics and sustainability of specialized AI data center businesses. Negative commentary surrounding the sector has added to bearish sentiment, leaving CoreWeave trading near the lower end of its historical range.

Gareth identified an area around \$51.50 associated with the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement, with the psychological \$50 level nearby. Deep retracement levels can sometimes attract buyers looking for a technical reaction, particularly after an extended decline. However, a stock reaching such a level does not establish that selling pressure has ended. The price response, volume, and ability to reclaim nearby resistance would help determine whether a sustainable bounce is developing.

This is where trader psychology becomes useful. When sentiment turns overwhelmingly negative, additional selling can become increasingly dependent on fresh bearish catalysts. That can create conditions for a countertrend bounce, but it can also reflect genuine deterioration in the underlying business outlook. Gareth's technical framework identifies where a reversal might develop while leaving confirmation to the market.

Gold Tests \$4,200 Resistance as Silver Eyes \$50 Support

Precious metals are showing signs of technical weakness following their earlier advances. Gold is attempting to stabilize near support, but Gareth identified the ascending trendline around \$4,200 as an important level to reclaim. A sustained move back above that area would improve the near-term technical picture, while continued rejection could leave the metal vulnerable to another leg lower.

One potential bearish scenario involves the development of a bear flag following the recent decline. If that consolidation resolves lower, Gareth's chart points toward \$3,500 as a possible downside objective. That target remains conditional on a confirmed breakdown and the continuation of the bearish pattern. A recovery above the relevant resistance would require reassessing the setup.

Silver is facing a similar test after breaking below an important support area on Friday. With prices trading around \$53.75 to \$54, the next significant downside reference is the psychological \$50 level. Gareth's analysis suggests patience while these charts work through their corrections. Deeper declines may eventually create more favorable technical conditions, but evidence of stabilization is needed before treating support as a durable bottom.

Natural Gas Rebound Potential Meets Rising AI Power Demand

Natural gas is attempting to recover after a sharp decline that left the commodity technically oversold. Gareth highlighted the possibility of a retracement following the recent selling pressure. Even a partial recovery could produce a meaningful percentage move given the size of the preceding decline, although oversold conditions alone do not confirm a reversal.

The longer-term fundamental backdrop adds another dimension. AI data centers require substantial electricity, and natural gas-fired generation is one potential solution for facilities seeking reliable power supplies. Growing demand for dedicated generation could support natural gas consumption over time, particularly where grid capacity is constrained.

The relationship between AI infrastructure growth and natural gas prices is worth following, but the effect will depend on project development, fuel supply, infrastructure capacity, and the timing of new electricity demand. In the near term, Gareth's chart analysis remains focused on whether natural gas can establish support and begin recovering from oversold conditions. The fundamental narrative may support a longer-term thesis, while price action determines the immediate trading structure.

Bitcoin Must Reclaim \$81,000 to Avoid a Deeper Pullback

Bitcoin entered Monday under pressure after slipping below the important \$81,000 level during weekend trading. Gareth highlighted the lower liquidity environment that often characterizes cryptocurrency trading over weekends, making the return of weekday participation an important test of whether the breakdown can hold.

The \$81,000 level now serves as a potential resistance area. If Bitcoin reclaims that price and establishes support above it, the weekend breakdown could prove temporary. Continued rejection, particularly on stronger trading volume, would reinforce the bearish technical picture and increase the possibility of a move toward the next major support area around \$75,500.

The daily close is an important confirmation point. Bitcoin can move sharply through technical levels during periods of reduced liquidity, so a sustained break carries more analytical weight than an isolated price move. Gareth's framework gives traders two clear scenarios: recovery above \$81,000 would improve the outlook, while failure to reclaim the level would keep downside risk elevated.

Bottom Line: S&P 500 Support and Nvidia Leadership Define the Week Ahead

The S&P 500 continues to hold its bullish consolidation, but the strength of the broader market deserves closer examination. Nvidia is testing a major trendline, several AI-related stocks have already weakened, and elevated Treasury yields leave equities sensitive to changes in inflation and growth expectations. The pullback in oil offers some relief, although renewed geopolitical concerns could quickly alter that backdrop.

For Gareth, the most useful levels are those that can change the market's technical read. The S&P 500 bull flag defines the broader equity setup, Nvidia's rising trendline provides a measure of technology leadership, and Bitcoin's \$81,000 level separates a possible recovery from continued downside pressure. Individual opportunities in CoreWeave, Brazilian equities, and precious metals require their own confirmation.

The approach heading into this week's catalysts is straightforward: identify the prevailing structure, understand where it would be invalidated, and allow price action to confirm the next move. The market can remain bullish while important pockets of weakness develop beneath the surface. Recognizing when that weakness begins to affect broader leadership will be essential to evaluating whether the current advance has room to continue.

Disclaimer: Trading and investing involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. This article is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, commodity, or cryptocurrency. Technical levels and market scenarios are subject to change, and past performance does not guarantee future results.