My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 10/27/2025: S&P 500 at 6,850 Resistance, Melt-Up Threat and NVIDIA Warning

Good morning and welcome to your daily deep dive into the markets. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, cut through the noise of the market’s latest rally. While headlines celebrate a potential U.S.-China trade deal framework, Gareth pointed to the underlying sentiment driving prices: pure, unadulterated irrational exuberance.

While this kind of momentum can persist, it is now pushing the S&P 500 directly into what may be the single most important technical resistance zone of the last five years. Today, we’ll break down this monumental level, explore the potential for a year-end "melt-up," and examine the warning signs flashing in the market's most speculative corners.

The S&P 500's Date with Destiny

The market is surging, but it's not just running into open air. It's approaching a technical confluence so powerful that its origins trace back to the most significant market events of the post-pandemic era. As Gareth explained, this isn't just one trend line; it's two massive, intersecting levels that create a formidable ceiling for the S&P 500.

The first level, sitting around 6850, is a trend line connecting the highs from October 2023, the August 2024 peak, and the January 2025 pullback. This line has served as a consistent and reliable point of resistance for over two years. An open above it is possible, but the real test is whether the market can hold that ground. “The question is, can we stay above it throughout the course of the day,” Gareth noted, suggesting that institutional players might see a gap-up on flimsy news as a prime opportunity to sell into strength.

However, a second, even more profound trend line lurks just 10 points higher. By zooming out to a weekly chart—where long-term, institutional trends are revealed—we can identify a massive parallel channel. This isn't just an arbitrary line connecting a few points; it's a structural channel built from the most important pivots of the last five years.

The process is a masterclass in technical analysis:

1. Draw the base trend line connecting the absolute COVID low in March 2020 with the subsequent major lows, including the 2022 bear market bottom and the 2023 pullback. The perfect alignment of these points shows what Gareth calls "order within the chaos of the selloffs."
2. Create a parallel of that line and drag it to the absolute bull market high of 2021—the peak of the last cycle's speculative mania.

Where does that line sit today? Right at 6860. The fact that these two independently derived, multi-year trend lines converge within a 10-point zone creates a technical barrier of immense significance. “When I talk about a major, and I repeat major level to watch here, this, my friends is it,” Gareth emphasized.

The Anatomy of a Year-End Melt-Up

The stakes at this 6,850-6,860 resistance zone could not be higher. This is the line in the sand that will likely determine the market's trajectory for the remainder of the year. While the resistance is formidable, a confirmed break above it would unleash a powerful new wave of buying.

Gareth was unequivocal about the implications: “If we get above this level and we actually confirm above it, then you probably have a melt up into year end.” A confirmation would require more than just a brief poke above the line; ideally, it would be a daily, and even better, a weekly close above 6,860. This would signal that the market has absorbed all the selling pressure at this historic level and is ready to run.

So, how high could a potential melt-up go? To answer this, we can look to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). By applying the same parallel channel methodology, we can project a logical upside target. Drawing a channel from the December 2022 bear market lows, the next major resistance for the QQQ comes in around the 655 level. From its current pre-market price of 625, that represents a move of approximately 4.75% to 5%.

This gives traders a clear, data-driven roadmap. A confirmed breakout on the S&P 500 above 6,860 would likely trigger a corresponding 5% rally in the Nasdaq, creating a powerful, broad-based surge into the new year. Conversely, a rejection from this level could trigger a sharp and swift pullback.

NVIDIA: The Market's Bellwether at a Crossroads

In a market this concentrated, the performance of its largest components carries outsized importance. Right now, all eyes are on NVIDIA. As the biggest company by market capitalization, its price action can either confirm a market breakout or serve as a leading indicator of a reversal.

Interestingly, NVIDIA is showing a subtle sign of weakness. While many stocks recovered on Friday, NVIDIA failed to reclaim a key ascending trend line that originates from the April 7th lows. Today, the stock is trading pre-market at $190 USD, placing it directly at that trend line, which is now acting as resistance.

The critical question for the market is whether its largest, most influential player can overcome this technical hurdle. If NVIDIA gets rejected from this line while the S&P 500 is testing its own generational resistance, it could create a significant headwind for the entire market. Traders should watch this chart closely, as its performance today could be the "tell" for the market's next move.

Echoes of 2021: The Return of Speculative Fever

Beneath the surface of the index charts, a familiar and potentially dangerous sentiment is brewing. The irrational exuberance Gareth mentioned isn't just about buying on trade rumors; it's manifesting in the return of extreme speculative behavior, reminiscent of the 2021 market top.

Consider SanDisk (SNDK). Since the beginning of September, the stock is up an astonishing 275%. While the momentum is undeniable, this type of parabolic move is unsustainable. Gareth labeled it a "dead short"—not necessarily for today, but for its inevitable conclusion. He compared its future to that of Oklo (OKLO), a stock that rocketed from $100 USD to $200 USD in just two weeks before collapsing 41%.

This is the classic game of musical chairs. “People basically are just buying. They're basically playing the musical chairs game, right? It's the hot stock, so get in it, but make sure you're out by the time that the music stops,” Gareth warned.

We’ve seen this movie before. He reminded viewers of Beyond Meat (BYND), which he warned about when it was trading near $7.50 USD. The stock subsequently plummeted to $2.00 USD, a 74% collapse. The psychology is always the same: "When greed finally runs out, the only thing left is fear."

The re-emergence of meme stocks like GameStop (GME), which saw a pop this morning, further reinforces this narrative. The fact that this speculative mentality is returning just as the S&P 500 confronts its most significant resistance in years is a major red flag that seasoned traders are watching closely.

Finding Value Amidst the Froth

In a market dominated by high-flying tech and speculative fervor, where can a prudent investor find opportunity? Gareth’s strategy is to look where others aren't: in solid, beaten-down companies that offer a high dividend yield, especially with the Federal Reserve expected to lower interest rates this week.

A perfect example is Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), a stock he has highlighted multiple times over the last month. It combined several key factors:

• It had sold off into major long-term technical support.
• It had formed a classic bull flag pattern.
• It is a "dividend safe haven" play.

While not an exciting AI stock, the disciplined approach paid off handsomely. This morning, KDP is ripping higher by over 10%. Another name in this vein is Pfizer (PFE). It’s not a stock that will triple overnight, but it pays a hefty 7% dividend and is quietly building a small bull flag pattern, suggesting a potential move higher. This strategy provides a compelling alternative to chasing momentum at dangerous highs.

A Rundown of Key Markets

• Gold & Silver: The bear flag on gold that Gareth identified Friday is playing out, with the metal continuing its correction. The first support target is $3,948. While he is short-term bearish, his long-term outlook remains bullish due to fundamentals like government debt and spending. Silver is in a similar pattern, and Gareth sees a major accumulation opportunity around the $43 level.
• Bitcoin: After confirming a breakdown below a key pivot, Bitcoin has rallied back above it. However, to be valid, this move needs to be solidified. “If it gets back above the trend line, once it has confirmed below, it must reconfirm back above to solidify,” he explained. A reconfirmation would open the door to retesting the all-time highs.
• Natural Gas: Nat Gas has a confirmed breakout, but Gareth is patiently waiting for a retrace to the "scene of the crime" for a low-risk entry. The long-term fundamental story is the immense energy demand from new data centers, which will likely have to rely on natural gas until new nuclear reactors come online years from now.

Conclusion: A Market at a Monumental Crossroads

The market is at a rare and critical inflection point. Fueled by speculative optimism, the S&P 500 is charging directly into a wall of technical resistance at 6,850-6,860, a level forged by the most significant market events of the last five years. The outcome of this battle will likely set the tone for the rest of 2025.

A confirmed breakout could unleash a powerful 5% year-end melt-up, while a rejection could see the speculative fever break, leading to a sharp reversal. By understanding the key levels, monitoring bellwether stocks like NVIDIA, and recognizing the psychological signs of a frothy market, traders can prepare for either scenario with a clear and logical game plan.