My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 10/31/2025: S&P 500 at Multi-Year Resistance as Nvidia, Apple and Big Tech Hit Major Trendlines

Happy Friday. The market is staging a dramatic snapback this morning, fueled by blockbuster earnings from tech titans Apple and Amazon. This rally comes on the heels of a sharp 1.5% drop in the Nasdaq yesterday, a decline driven by Meta’s post-earnings collapse and lingering disappointment from the Trump-Xi meeting. While the immediate sentiment is euphoric, this morning's My Trading Game Plan with Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, revealed a series of eye-opening charts that suggest major indices and their largest components could be approaching monumental cycle highs.

Beneath the surface of today’s earnings-driven rally lies a complex technical landscape. Key trend lines, some stretching back over five years, are converging at current price levels, creating a high-stakes environment for traders. Today, we’ll dive deeper into these critical charts, explore the historical context of the market's current valuation, and reinforce the probabilistic mindset required to navigate these pivotal moments.

The S&P 500's Rendezvous with Destiny

While the daily news cycle focuses on earnings beats and misses, the most important chart in the market right now might be the S&P 500 weekly chart. As Gareth highlighted this morning, this is where the macro story is unfolding, and it’s pointing to a potentially massive inflection point. Two critical, multi-year trend lines are converging in a tight zone just below the 6,900 level, creating a technical barrier of immense significance.

The first trend line connects the pinnacle of the 2021 bull market with the subsequent highs of 2023 and 2025. The second connects the March 2020 COVID low with the October 2022 bear market bottom. The intersection of these two powerful lines creates a formidable resistance zone between 6,885 and 6,890. The precision of this confluence is what makes it so compelling for technical analysts. These aren't arbitrary lines drawn on a short-term chart; they are long-term boundaries that have defined major market turning points for over five years.

This setup elevates the importance of today's weekly close. A weak close below this resistance would form a classic topping tail, signaling rejection. Conversely, a powerful surge through it would require a close around 6,925 to suggest genuine buying conviction. As Gareth emphasized, this single chart is his primary focus.

"Essentially as a technician, this is the number one thing that I'm focusing on this Friday's close and then going into next week… I'm still watching this like a hawk more than any other thing in the market. This is what I'm focusing on."

Even if the market manages to push through, traders must watch for confirmation. A "fake out," where price briefly pierces a key level only to reverse, is a common trap. This is why disciplined traders wait for a confirmed weekly close above the level before abandoning a bearish or neutral thesis. The battle at this S&P 500 resistance zone will likely set the market's tone for weeks, if not months, to come.

A Bubble Bigger Than the Dot-Com Era?

As mega-cap tech stocks continue to drive market performance, questions about valuation and market concentration are becoming increasingly relevant. Gareth shared a stunning statistic that puts the current environment into stark historical perspective, suggesting we may be in a bubble that dwarfs even the infamous dot-com peak.

"So in 2000 at the dot-com bubble high, Cisco systems was the biggest company… At its height, the market cap of Cisco systems made up 3.9% of GDP of the U.S… Do you want to guess what Nvidia makes up? It makes up 16% of the GDP."

This comparison is staggering. Nvidia's market capitalization relative to the entire U.S. economy is more than four times larger than that of Cisco, the "backbone of the internet," at the absolute peak of the last major tech bubble. This isn't to say the market is destined for an imminent collapse. As history teaches us, bubbles can inflate for far longer than many think possible, as seen from 1997 through early 2000.

However, statistics like this are what Gareth calls "breadcrumbs." They are crucial pieces of contextual data that help traders understand the underlying risks in the market. While price action is the ultimate guide, knowing that valuations have reached such historic extremes should inform risk management and position sizing. It reinforces the idea that while the trend is your friend, being aware of potential cliffs is essential for survival. This single data point serves as a powerful reminder that today’s market is in uncharted territory, and prudence is warranted.

Big Tech at Major Inflection Points

The earnings reports from Apple and Amazon sent their stocks soaring, but their charts tell a more complicated story. Both titans are rallying directly into massive, long-term resistance levels that have historically marked major tops.

Apple's Test of a Generational Trendline

Apple initially surged to $285.00 USD in after-hours trading before settling back around $277.00 USD. While the earnings were solid, the weekly chart reveals a potential ceiling. A powerful trendline connecting the March 2020 COVID low, the December 2022 bear market low, and the April 2025 "liberation sell-off" low now acts as a parallel resistance line. In pre-market trading, Apple’s stock pierced this exact line.

The historical significance of this trendline cannot be overstated. The last two major touches on its parallel support line led to subsequent 35% pullbacks. Now testing it as resistance around the $283.00 USD level, the chart suggests a major pivot top could be forming. For a disciplined trader, this isn't a signal to blindly short a $4 trillion USD company, but it is a clear signal to be cautious and potentially start building a short position if price confirms a rejection at this level.

Amazon's "Retrace to the Scene of the Crime"

Amazon's chart is equally, if not more, compelling. After a fantastic earnings report, the stock is surging towards $253.00 USD. However, this price point represents a perfect confluence of two major resistance trend lines.

The first is a descending line connecting the 2021 bull market high with the highs preceding the 2025 sell-off. The second is an ascending line that provided support multiple times before breaking down. Amazon's current rally is bringing it right back to this broken support line—a classic technical pattern known as a "retrace to the scene of the crime."

When two distinct and powerful trend lines converge at the same price, it creates a high-probability zone for a reversal. This setup presents a potential opportunity for a fade during the day or even a swing trade short. As Gareth noted, "It's pretty cool charts today. By the way. I love game plans where I have these mega trend lines to show you."

The Anatomy of a Perfect Technical Target: A Meta Case Study

For anyone who doubts the predictive power of technical analysis, the recent price action in Meta serves as a textbook example. Months ago, Gareth identified a classic head and shoulders topping pattern on Meta’s chart. This pattern allows for a precise downside price target calculation.

The method is simple: measure the distance from the highest point of the "head" straight down to the "neckline." Once the neckline is broken, you subtract that same distance from the breakdown point. Yesterday, Meta’s stock fell directly to that calculated target level and staged a beautiful bounce.

This illustrates a crucial concept in trading. The pattern has now played out. Its predictive utility is complete.

"The charts told us this head and shoulders broke. It told us the target. Now, once that's complete, we push it out of the way and we focus on what the next pattern forms to give us the high probabilities in trading."

The next step is not to assume the trend will continue, but to wait patiently for the next pattern to emerge. Will Meta form a bear flag, signaling another leg down? Or will it consolidate and reverse, signaling a bottom is in? The charts will provide the answer, but only to those who are patient enough to listen.

Trading is a Probability Game, Not a Crystal Ball

Perhaps the most valuable lesson from today's analysis is the reminder that trading is a business of probabilities, not certainties. Gareth used the example of a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern forming on the chart of crude oil to drive this point home. While the bullish pattern may be forming, it is irrelevant until it triggers by breaking its neckline.

Even the most reliable patterns, like the head and shoulders on Meta, have a failure rate.

"Even the best head and shoulders in the world, like the one on Meta, it's still at a failure rate of like 25, 30%. It just was 70 to 75% success rate that it was going to play out… any pattern can fail. Charts are not infallible."

This mindset is what separates professional traders from gamblers. Professionals understand they are playing a numbers game, much like a casino. The goal isn't to win every hand, but to consistently place bets where the odds are in your favor. If you can achieve a 70% win rate, you can build incredible wealth over time, provided you manage risk properly on the 30% of trades that go against you. Understanding that you will be wrong is the key to survival and success. It tempers expectations, prevents over-leveraging, and allows you to build real, sustainable wealth.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Friday

Today's market presents a fascinating dichotomy. On one hand, blowout earnings from the world's largest companies are fueling a risk-on rally. On the other, the most important charts in the market are screaming that we are at or near major, multi-year resistance levels that have historically marked significant tops.

This is not a time for complacency. It is a time for heightened awareness, disciplined execution, and a deep respect for technical levels. Whether the market powers through these barriers or is forcefully rejected, the coming days and weeks promise to be pivotal. By focusing on the charts, understanding the historical context, and approaching every trade with a probabilistic mindset, traders can confidently navigate the opportunities and risks that lie ahead.