My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 11/19/2025: Japan Debt Shock Could Spike Global Yields, NVIDIA and Bitcoin Face Critical Tests

As the market holds its collective breath for NVIDIA's earnings report, a far more significant, under-the-radar event may be brewing halfway across the world. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, peeled back the layers of the daily market noise to reveal a potential "black swan" event originating in Japan—a development that could have cascading effects on global debt markets.

While NVIDIA will undoubtedly dictate the market's next 24 hours, today's analysis dives deeper into the structural risks and opportunities that long-term investors must keep on their radar, from the weakening U.S. consumer to critical technical tests in Bitcoin and the broader indices.

A Black Swan Brewing in Japan

In a market fixated on AI narratives and quarterly earnings, it’s often the ignored macro developments that pose the greatest risk. Gareth today highlighted a series of alarming signals from Japan that warrant serious attention. As he noted, this is how traders gain an edge: by focusing on pure data and charts, away from the noise of social media.

“You hear these things first, right here, because I study the data and the charts every single day. Night and day, I'm focused in on charts… It's all about the data, and that's how you discover these things ahead of institutions.”

The first piece of evidence is a major breakout in the U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen (USD/JPY). The chart shows a vertical move, indicating a rapid and severe weakening of the yen. This isn't just a minor currency fluctuation; it's a breakout that suggests the yen could continue to devalue, potentially revisiting levels associated with the yen carry trade crisis.

Compounding this currency crisis is a dramatic spike in Japan's 10-year government bond yield. The yield is soaring, which is profoundly dangerous for a country with a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 240%—nearly double the U.S. ratio of 130%. As interest rates rise, the cost for Japan to service its colossal debt burden becomes unsustainable. This combination of a weakening currency and spiking yields is a classic recipe for a sovereign debt crisis.

This potential crisis in Japan could be the catalyst for the bullish pattern forming on the U.S. 10-year yield. The chart of the U.S. 10-year is showing a potential cup and handle formation—a bullish consolidation pattern that often resolves to the upside. If yields in the U.S. spike higher, driven by credit and debt risk fears emanating from Japan, it would create significant headwinds for an already fragile U.S. economy and stock market. This is the kind of systemic risk that the market currently has off its radar, making it a true potential black swan.

S&P and Nasdaq Await Their NVIDIA Verdict

Back in the U.S., the major indices are showing clear signs of technical weakness as they await their marching orders from NVIDIA. The S&P 500 has continued its breakdown from the parallel channel that has defined every major high and low since the COVID bottom. This technical breakdown signals a potential major cycle high is in place.

Gareth's first major downside target for the S&P 500 is the 6,120 level. This isn't an arbitrary number; it represents the former all-time high from 2024 and early 2025. In technical analysis, former resistance, once broken, becomes new support. A retest of this breakout level is a logical and probable destination for the index. The path there won't be a straight line, but it serves as a clear objective for traders positioning for further downside.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has already confirmed its breakdown from a similar parallel channel two days ago and continued to sell off yesterday. While it's seeing a minor bounce in the pre-market, its fate is inextricably tied to NVIDIA's report after the bell. The post-earnings reaction will either validate the recent breakdown or trigger a sharp reversal, making the next 24 hours a pivotal period for the market's direction.

NVIDIA: The Questions Beneath the Surface

There is little doubt that NVIDIA will report fantastic headline numbers. As Gareth pointed out, "Jensen Huang, he is a master salesman. He's going to make it sound like it's the best ever." The real story, however, will be found in the details—the fine print that institutional investors will scrutinize while retail traders react to the initial headlines.

Several looming questions could undermine the bullish narrative:

1. Data Center Constraints: Have hyperscalers slowed or halted data center construction due to a lack of energy to power them? This is a real-world bottleneck that could cap the seemingly infinite demand for AI chips.
2. Aggressive Accounting: Are the depreciation schedules for AI chips realistic? Reports suggest they are being stretched over seven years when their functional lifespan is closer to two or three, potentially overstating current profits.
3. The Nature of Demand: How much of the reported demand is organic versus "shenanigans" involving money shuffling between major players to create the appearance of a massive order book?

The market reaction will reveal the tug-of-war between a retail audience programmed to buy every dip and institutions growing wary of stretched valuations and potential cracks in the AI story. The chart itself is flashing a warning sign, with NVIDIA closing below a key trendline heading into the report. While the breakdown is not yet confirmed, a negative reaction could send the stock flushing down to its gap fill around the $167 to $170 USD level. A positive reaction could spark a relief rally toward $200 USD.

Longer-term, the semiconductor sector (SMH) chart offers a sobering perspective. Twice in recent years—in 2021 and 2024—the sector has seen an extension of over 100% above its 200-day moving average. Both instances were followed by massive pullbacks of 40-45%. The current setup is mirroring this historical precedent, suggesting that even if NVIDIA sparks a short-term bounce, the gravitational pull back toward the 200 moving average remains the highest probability outcome over the medium term.

The Consumer is Flashing Red

While AI stocks have kept the market afloat, earnings from consumer-facing companies are painting a bleak picture. Target reported earnings this morning, beating estimates by a mere two cents but missing on revenue. More importantly, the company cut its forward guidance, explicitly warning that the holiday season is not shaping up to be strong. The stock, already trading at multi-year lows, is down again.

For traders, this creates a potential opportunity. Gareth has identified a key technical level on Target's chart around $80 USD. This price corresponds with a beautiful trend line connecting the lows from October 2023 and April 2025. A tag of this level could offer a high-probability day trade and swing trade entry.

Target’s warning doesn't exist in a vacuum. It follows a similarly cautious outlook from Home Depot yesterday, which saw its stock fall about 6%. These reports indicate that cracks are emerging in the U.S. consumer, the backbone of the economy. The high-end consumer, who has been propped up by a rising stock market, may also begin to pull back as the market stalls, creating a negative feedback loop for the broader economy.

Bitcoin at a Make-or-Break Level

Bitcoin is facing its own moment of truth. After closing below a critical trend line on Monday, it has so far failed to confirm the breakdown. Confirmation would occur with a daily close below Monday's low of $90,900.

“If it closes below Monday's low right here, basically $90,900, a close below that confirms it and the odds would heavily start shading continued downside into this $73,000 to $75,000 level.”

If it fails to confirm, the door remains open for a recapture of the trendline and another bounce. This is a classic example of why traders must wait for confirmation rather than acting impulsively on an initial signal. The price action today is paramount.

This technical juncture is a perfect illustration of why data trumps narrative. While social media is filled with calls for $250,000 by year-end, the charts present a more sober reality. The max upside target based on the multi-year trendline established in 2017 is around $128,000. Until that trendline is broken, assuming anything more is pure speculation. As Gareth wisely reminds us, the "this time is different" argument is the siren song of every market bubble. Human psychology—greed and fear—remains constant.

The Trader's Edge: Adaptability Over Rigidity

Perhaps the most crucial lesson from today's analysis is the importance of mental flexibility. A trader cannot become rigidly attached to a single level or outcome, because the market is a dynamic environment where patterns and probabilities are constantly evolving.

“You have to understand that level is valid for like a few days because once you get too many pieces of the puzzle, the whole pattern could change… Rigid is the characteristic that makes people lose money. It's when emotion gets involved and they're unable to say, nope, things have changed now.”

This is the essence of professional trading. It’s not about being right all the time; it's about recognizing when the data changes and adjusting your position accordingly. Whether it's the developing situation in Japan, the fine print in NVIDIA's report, or a confirmation signal in Bitcoin, the ability to process new information logically and without emotional bias is the ultimate edge.

As we head into a volatile session, the key is to have a plan. Know your levels, understand the potential catalysts, and be prepared to adapt as the charts provide new information. The market is full of opportunities, but they belong to those who are prepared, disciplined, and flexible.