My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 11/26/2025: Holiday Float Warning Charts Over Narratives as Japanese 10-Year Yield Threatens Stocks

Welcome to the pre-Thanksgiving trading session, a unique period in the market calendar often characterized by low volume and deceptive price action. As institutional traders step away for the holiday, retail investors tend to take the helm, creating a gentle upward drift. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, dissected this holiday phenomenon and issued a critical warning for what lies ahead. More importantly, he reinforced the core principle that separates consistently profitable traders from the crowd: the discipline to trust the charts over the ever-shifting and often misleading market narratives.

The Holiday Float: A Deceptive Calm Before the Storm

The market is currently experiencing what can best be described as a holiday float. With institutional money largely on the sidelines, the market's character changes. The dominant force becomes the retail investor, who is historically long-biased and conditioned to buy on any weakness. This dynamic creates an environment ripe for a slow, steady grind higher on light volume.

"When you take out the institutional money, who rules the roost? The retail investor," Gareth explained. "And we know the retail investor is a long biased investor and they're conditioned to buy the dips. So what do you get? You get a float back up over the last few days."

This upward drift is often supported by a conveniently timed shift in the media narrative, which has recently pivoted back to the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. However, this calm is likely to be short-lived. Gareth issued a stark warning for traders to remain vigilant as the calendar turns to December.

"Once we get through this week and into early December, be on alert. We are likely to begin selling again… Don't be fooled. Watch how quickly the narrative shifts again next week to a bearish narrative and the markets start coming in."

This is a classic market pattern. The "smart money" exits for the holiday, allowing the market to drift up on retail optimism, only to potentially re-establish short positions at higher prices when they return. The key for disciplined traders is to recognize this dynamic and not be lured into a false sense of security.

Grounded in Reality: Why Charts Trump Narratives

In a world saturated with financial news, social media chatter, and conflicting expert opinions, it's easy for investors to get swept up in the emotion of the moment. One day, the narrative is hawkish and bearish; the next, it's dovish and bullish. This constant flip-flopping can lead to emotional decision-making and costly mistakes. The antidote to this chaos is the unwavering, unbiased truth of the price chart.

"The narrative switch, it can have this big impact on us if we let it. But what do we do? How do we stay grounded to what is reality? What's the truth? What's the probability? And to do that, we go to the charts. The charts are unbiased. There's no narrative there. It's just the price action."

Looking at the S&P 500, despite the recent rally and bullish chatter, the technical picture remains unchanged and cautionary. The index is still trading below a monumental trend line connecting the 2021 cycle high with multiple key pivot lows. Until this level is decisively reclaimed, it stands as epic resistance, and from a purely technical standpoint, the recent market top remains intact. This chart-based reality provides a crucial anchor, preventing traders from being swayed by the temporary holiday float and the fleeting narratives that accompany it.

The Most Important Chart You're Not Watching

While most of the financial world remains fixated on the US 10-Year Treasury yield and the US Dollar, Gareth highlighted a chart that he believes holds more significance for global liquidity and market direction: the Japanese 10-Year Yield.

"This to me is bigger than the US 10-year, bigger than the US dollar chart. This is the Japanese 10-year yield," he stated emphatically.

The relationship is clear and direct. The recent rally in the Japanese 10-Year Yield coincided perfectly with the sell-off in the S&P 500. The subsequent pullback in the yield provided the relief that allowed the stock market to bounce. This is not a coincidence; it's tied to the "Yen carry trade," a strategy where investors borrow Yen at low-interest rates to fund investments in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. When Japanese yields rise, it makes this trade less attractive, effectively tightening global liquidity and putting pressure on risk assets like stocks.

As institutional traders return next week, this is the chart to watch. If the Japanese 10-Year Yield resumes its climb towards 1.85%, 1.9%, or even 2%, it could be the catalyst that triggers the next major leg down in the equity markets, providing the fundamental reason for the bearish narrative shift Gareth anticipates.

Identifying Key Levels in Tech and Beyond

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is approaching a critical resistance zone. While the holiday float may push it slightly higher, it is set to collide with the underbelly of a well-defined parallel channel. This level, around the 616 to 617, represents a formidable technical barrier that previously marked the high before the last major sell-off. A test of this level, especially on the light volume of Black Friday's half-day session, would present a textbook location for sellers to re-emerge.

Within the tech space, Google provided a masterclass in fading unwarranted hype. Following a rumor that Meta might buy its chips, Google surged in the pre-market yesterday. Gareth identified this as a prime shorting opportunity.

"I'm pounding the table on a short on Google… I said this yesterday. I said, guys, this is my favorite short of the morning… Boom. We knocked it out of the park."

The trade remains valid as a swing short. The initial spike was a narrative-driven anomaly, and the chart suggests a powerful gravitational pull back towards the pivot high at $292 USD. This setup is a perfect example of using technical analysis to cut through the noise and trade the probable outcome.

On the other side of the spectrum, Eli Lilly (LLY) is a stock that has had a spectacular run, up an incredible 77.77% from its recent low. While the trend is strong, such parabolic moves eventually become unsustainable. With its Relative Strength Index (RSI) soaring near 87, the stock is in extremely overbought territory. Gareth has placed it on "high alert for a topping signal," ready to initiate a short position once the chart confirms a reversal. This demonstrates the opportunistic nature of a true swing trader—neither permanently bull nor bear, but ready to trade in either direction when the probabilities align.

Finding Opportunity in Unloved Assets

While some stocks are flying high, others have been beaten down and left for dead by the market. It is in these unloved corners that some of the best risk/reward opportunities can be found, provided they are sitting on powerful technical support.

Oracle (ORCL): This stock has been a laggard, but it has now arrived at a zone of huge technical support and is deeply oversold. After putting in a bottoming tail candle yesterday, it's showing signs of life. Gareth, who was short the stock at higher levels, is now long, targeting a relief rally back to the $220 USD level.

MicroStrategy (MSTR): Perhaps no stock is more unloved right now. MicroStrategy is facing significant narrative headwinds. Its leveraged strategy of taking on debt to buy Bitcoin means it underperforms when Bitcoin is weak. Furthermore, there is ongoing debate about whether a company that functions primarily as a Bitcoin treasury should be included in major indices like the S&P 500.

However, a disciplined trader sets these narratives aside and looks at the chart. "Do I care about the narratives? Do I care about the nonsense? I look at the chart because when I focus on the chart, I make money," Gareth asserted. The chart of MicroStrategy is sitting on what he described as "freaking good support." Despite the negative sentiment, the technical picture suggests a high-probability bounce back towards the $235 to $240 USD area.

The Trader's Mindset: Probability, Risk, and Discipline

Ultimately, long-term success in the markets comes down to mindset. It's about removing emotion, ego, and hope from the equation and operating like a machine, coldly calculating probabilities and managing risk.

Gareth used his small long position in crude oil to illustrate the critical concept of risk/reward. The chart shows a bullish cup and handle pattern, but it has struggled to break out. By entering a small position, he has quantified his risk at just 2.7% (if the recent low breaks), while his potential reward is around 10-11%. This favorable asymmetry makes the trade logical, even if the pattern isn't perfect.

"Quantifying your risk on every trade is important," he noted. "You might have a 90% success rate on a pattern… but if you look at your risk reward and you're like, okay, I'm going to make a dollar, but I'm going to risk a hundred dollars, is it still worth it to take that set up? I don't think so."

This is the essence of professional trading. It's not about being right on every trade. It's about having a system that, over time, produces positive results. It's about understanding that our feelings and desires are irrelevant to the market's outcome.

As we head into the holiday, remember the core mantra: "Pure charts. No BS." Enjoy the upward float if it continues, but remain grounded in the technical realities. The charts are signaling major resistance overhead, and key indicators are flashing warning signs. Be prepared for the return of volatility and the institutional players next week.