My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 11/28/2025: S&P 500 at Major Resistance, VIX at Key Support, Japan 10Y Yield Threat

On this Black Friday, while many are hunting for deals in retail stores, savvy traders are searching for discounts and opportunities in the financial markets. After a powerful five-day rally, the stock market is approaching a critical juncture that could define its direction heading into December. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, broke down the key levels of resistance, the signals flashing for a potential reversal, and the lurking global risks that could soon take center stage.

The morning began with an unusual event: a multi-hour outage on the CME futures exchange. This disruption serves as a stark reminder of the complexities and potential vulnerabilities within our increasingly digitized financial system. As Gareth noted, “…you have to wonder again, are there vulnerabilities as supercomputers come online, data centers, AI, what type of risks are lurking out there due to these new factors being introduced?” It’s a crucial question for investors to ponder as we navigate a market that is not only technically extended but also potentially fragile.

The S&P 500's Test at a Critical Ceiling

The S&P 500 has staged an impressive five-day bounce off its recent lows, but this rally is now running directly into a formidable wall of technical resistance. While the short-term momentum feels bullish, a longer-term perspective reveals the market remains within a well-defined structure. The weekly chart shows the S&P 500 is still contained within a parallel channel that has flawlessly marked major market tops and bottoms since the COVID lows. As a technician, Gareth must respect this historical precedent: “I have to go on the assumption that this is a major high until proven otherwise.”

Zooming into the daily chart, the immediate test becomes crystal clear. The bounce from the recent lows is approaching a confluence of two powerful resistance factors. The first is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire decline from the all-time highs. The second is a gap fill just above that level. This tight zone represents the first major hurdle for the bulls. A failure at this level would validate the larger bearish structure and suggest the recent rally was merely a counter-trend bounce before the next leg down.

This setup is a classic example of why technical analysis is so crucial. It allows traders to filter out the daily noise and focus on specific, high-probability zones where the market is likely to pivot. Rather than guessing or trading on emotion, this data-driven approach provides a clear roadmap for what to expect.

The VIX Countdown: A Signal for Reversal

Adding another layer of conviction to the potential for a market top is the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX. Known as the market's "fear gauge," the VIX has an inverse relationship with the S&P 500; when fear is low (VIX is down), markets tend to be high, and vice versa. Over the past five trading days, the VIX has plummeted by a staggering 40%, signaling a rapid return to complacency among investors.

This dramatic drop has brought the VIX right down to a critical rising trendline that has served as support throughout the year. This trendline, connecting the series of higher lows, sits at approximately 16.60. The convergence of these two events creates a powerful potential trade setup:

1. The S&P 500 is pushing up into major Fibonacci and gap-fill resistance.
2. The VIX is simultaneously falling into major trendline support.

It is highly probable that the VIX will bounce off this support level, indicating a rise in fear and volatility. This bounce would likely coincide with the S&P 500 being rejected at its resistance zone, triggering a market pullback. This confluence of signals is precisely what professional traders look for. Gareth is planning his strategy around this, stating, “For me, I'm looking to start to accumulate some shorts today and on Monday, especially if the VIX tags 16.60 and the S&P tags those key levels we just discussed.”

The "Support Becomes Resistance" Principle in Action

One of the most fundamental and reliable principles in technical analysis is the concept of role reversal, where broken support becomes new resistance. We are seeing textbook examples of this pattern setting up in both the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and individual stocks like Robinhood (HOOD).

For months, the QQQ traded within a parallel channel, with the lower trendline providing consistent support. After recently breaking below that line, the index is now rallying back to retest it from underneath. According to technical principles, this former floor should now act as a ceiling. “What we know from technical analysis is when we've been above a support line, right? So we've been above and we break. What happens to that line? It no longer is support… What does it become? It becomes resistance.” This retest offers a clear, defined level for traders to watch for a potential short entry, as the market is likely to be rejected at this point.

The same pattern is unfolding on the chart of Robinhood (HOOD). The stock had a clear support level that held multiple times before finally breaking. Now, as it rallies back, that former support zone around the $137.50 to $138.00 level is poised to act as significant resistance, presenting another high-probability shorting opportunity.

The Lurking Black Swan: Why Japan's 10-Year Yield Matters

While domestic technicals paint a compelling picture, a potentially massive global catalyst is brewing in Japan. Gareth has identified the Japanese 10-year government bond yield as a "lurking black swan" that could send shockwaves through global markets. With a staggering 240% debt-to-GDP ratio, Japan's financial situation is precarious. For decades, it has managed this debt through extremely low, and even negative, interest rates.

However, those rates are now skyrocketing. The chart of the Japanese 10-year yield shows a dramatic upward move. Interestingly, when this yield topped out and pulled back last week, U.S. markets bounced. This correlation suggests a powerful inverse relationship. Gareth is now watching to see if the yield takes out its recent high of around 1.85%. If it does, it could trigger a significant sell-off in the U.S.

Why does this matter? The interconnectedness of global finance means a crisis in Japan wouldn't stay in Japan. A spike in Japanese yields could unravel the "yen carry trade," a popular strategy where investors borrow cheaply in yen to invest in higher-yielding assets like U.S. Treasuries. Unwinding this trade would reduce liquidity and create selling pressure. Furthermore, it could signal that global bond investors are becoming nervous about sovereign debt in general, forcing yields higher everywhere, including the U.S., regardless of what the Federal Reserve does.

Precision Setups in Tech, Crypto, and Commodities

Even on a shortened trading day, specific opportunities are presenting themselves across various asset classes.

• Broadcom (AVGO): A beautiful trendline is creating a "massive wall of resistance" around $410.00 USD. This presents a fantastic, high-probability level for a short trade.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): The stock is currently finding temporary support in a zone of previous consolidation between $165.00 USD and $167.00 USD. However, a break below $165.00 USD would open the door for a move down to the longer-term target of $150.00 USD.
• Bitcoin and Crypto Proxies: After calling for a bounce, Gareth noted the rally from $86,000 to over $92,000. While the ultimate target for this bounce could be the $100,000 level, he remains steadfast in his longer-term view that Bitcoin will eventually see a decline toward the $73,000-$75,000 range. This bounce has created great trading opportunities in crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Circle (CRCL), which are bouncing hard off major support levels.
• Precious Metals: Gold is attempting to break out of a wedge pattern, which, if confirmed, could send it back to its all-time high near $4,400. Silver has already reached its all-time high, forming a triple top. A confirmed breakout here could target $57.00 USD and then higher. This strength reflects a growing global distrust in fiat currencies, which can be printed endlessly.
• Oil: Gareth recently entered a long position based on a favorable risk-reward setup near the bottom of a large cup-and-handle pattern. With a risk of just 2% for a potential reward of over 10%, the probabilities favored taking the trade.

Conclusion: Navigating the Inflection Point

The market is at a critical inflection point. A five-day relief rally has brought major indices directly into zones of heavy technical resistance, just as the VIX hits key support. This alignment signals a high probability of a market reversal in the coming days, especially as institutional investors return next week. Adding to the bearish case is the looming risk from spiking Japanese bond yields, a potential black swan that most retail investors are ignoring.

By focusing on the charts, traders can identify these key levels and prepare for the market's next move. Trading is a game of probabilities, and the current evidence suggests the odds are shifting away from the bulls. As Gareth always emphasizes, it's about following a logical, data-driven game plan. “That's why I love charts, because they give me the probabilities to do just that.” By staying disciplined and respecting the technical signals, traders can position themselves to profit from the opportunities that lie ahead.