My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 12/10/2025: Fed Decision, Oracle Earnings, and S&P 500 Trend Line Levels

Today is a pivotal day for the markets. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, with a rate decision scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time that is sure to inject volatility and set the tone for the remainder of the year. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, broke down not only the technical landscape but also a fascinating political narrative that could serve as a backstop for any market weakness.

While a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely expected, the market is bracing for hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This creates a complex dynamic where the reaction will depend on the degree of hawkishness. However, as Gareth revealed, there may be a calculated plan in place to shift the narrative, regardless of what the Fed says. This article will dive deep into that theory, explore a stunningly accurate long-term trend line on the S&P 500, and analyze the critical levels traders must watch across key assets.

The Fed, The President, and The Oracle

On the surface, today is all about monetary policy. The market has priced in a rate cut but is also prepared for a stern message from Jerome Powell about future policy. This sets up a delicate balancing act. As Gareth explained, a shockingly hawkish tone could trigger a sell-off, but there's a unique twist to today's events.

"There is already a plan in place from the president, in my opinion, to cushion any sort of sell off on the Fed… ask yourself who's buddy buddy with the president? The answer is Larry Ellison."

This is where the analysis moves beyond simple chart reading into the realm of high-stakes political and corporate chess. Larry Ellison, the head of Oracle, has a well-known relationship with the President. In a move Gareth believes is no coincidence, Oracle is scheduled to report earnings after the bell today, immediately following the Fed's decision and press conference.

Why is this significant? Companies have a wide window to report their quarterly results, and the choice of this specific date is telling. Gareth posits that a positive, AI-focused earnings report from Oracle could be the perfect tool to pivot the market's attention away from a hawkish Fed and back toward the bullish AI narrative that has powered stocks higher. The connections run even deeper, with Ellison’s influence extending to TikTok and his son’s involvement with Skydance, a company now bidding for Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD). These are the subtle, behind-the-scenes factors that seasoned traders monitor. While technical analysis is paramount, understanding the potential for narrative manipulation provides an invaluable edge.

A "Super Cool" Trend Line Pinpoints the Bounce

While narratives can influence short-term sentiment, the charts ultimately tell the story of price action. In a moment of pure technical enthusiasm, Gareth shared a remarkable long-term trend line on the S&P 500 that perfectly explains the market's recent bounce.

"If we take a trend line and we go back to the highest point during the bull market of 2021… bring that trend line out to the highest point right here in the pre-liberation sell-off… Drag it out even further and lo and behold, look at this, guys. Look at where the markets fell to prior to their bounce."

This is the magic of technical analysis. A single line, drawn from the 2021 peak and connecting through the subsequent major high, precisely identified the bottom of the most recent market dip. This isn't random; it's a visual representation of market memory and structure. This trend line now serves as a critical new support level for the market, currently sitting around 6,575 on the S&P 500. A break below this line would be a significant technical event, opening the door to a potential move down to the next major target at 6,125.

Even with this strong support below, the immediate upside appears limited. The S&P 500 is currently trading at the high end of a parallel channel, a formation that has consistently led to pullbacks. The potential upside to the top of this channel is only about 2%, presenting a skewed risk-reward scenario for new long positions at these levels.

The Trader’s Mindset: Logic, Probability, and Humility

Finding a perfect trend line is exhilarating, but it's crucial to place it within the proper mental framework. The most important lesson from today's show was a reminder of the core philosophy that separates consistently profitable traders from the rest.

"Always remember, charts are probabilities. And so there's no such thing as a sure thing… We have to understand it's about looking at the odds and saying, this is the most likely outcome. And then for me, I try to make my financial decisions based off of that versus my emotion."

This is the foundation of a successful trading career. Emotion, whether it's greed after a winning streak or fear during a drawdown, is the enemy of good decision-making. By viewing every setup through the lens of probability, traders can operate with a logical, detached mindset. An 80% probability setup will still fail 20% of the time, and accepting this reality is key to proper risk management and long-term survival.

This mindset is perfectly illustrated in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) chart. The QQQ has rallied directly into a former support trend line that has now flipped to become resistance. A novice trader, fueled by a bullish narrative, might assume it will break through. A probabilistic trader respects the level. As Gareth stated, "As technicians, we respect it until proven otherwise." Until price confirms a break above this line, the higher probability outcome is a rejection or consolidation at this level.

Key Setups Across the Market

With the broader market context established, let's look at some of the specific trade setups Gareth highlighted:

Goldman Sachs (GS): This was a high-conviction setup. The stock rallied directly into a multi-year trend line connecting multiple prior peaks. This is a classic, high-probability swing trade short setup. The potential downside target, based on a parallel channel, sits around $775 USD, representing a potential $100 USD move lower.

Tesla (TSLA): The electric vehicle giant is caught in a massive wedge pattern that is tightening like a vice. Price is being compressed between a rising support line and a falling resistance line. By February, the pattern will force a resolution—either a breakout to the upside or a breakdown to the downside. While the pattern has a slight bullish tilt, the key is to wait for confirmation of the break before committing to a direction.

Bitcoin (BTC): The crypto leader presents a fascinating dual personality. In the near term, it's in a clear uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows within an ascending channel. This supports a neutral-to-bullish bias, and Gareth remains long with a potential target near $100,000 USD. However, the larger pattern is a classic bear flag—a sharp move down followed by a slow grind up. This larger pattern suggests that, eventually, a significant breakdown toward the $70,000 USD level is the higher probability outcome.

Silver: After a powerful rally, silver tagged a major upper trend line—the same line that marked significant tops in the past. Gareth noted that while his long-term outlook is bullish, the near-term technicals suggest a top is in. He anticipates a pullback to the "scene of the crime," the prior breakout point around $54 USD per ounce. This is a textbook example of a retrace to test former resistance as new support.

The Art of Taking Profits

One of the most difficult skills for a trader to master is knowing when to take profits. Greed can quickly turn a winning trade into a loser. Gareth’s recent trade in Ethereum (ETH) provides a masterclass in this discipline. After buying at a key trend line, he booked a 17% gain.

Could ETH go higher, perhaps to the next major resistance around $3,600 USD? Absolutely. But the decision to sell was not based on predicting the exact top. It was based on risk management.

"When you're up on a trade in a matter of a week or two, 17 plus percent… At a certain point, you say, you know what, I'm not going to get overly greedy… Is it getting to where the risk versus reward is not good enough anymore to risk giving up my 17, 18% gain?"

This is a logic-based approach. Once a trade has made a substantial move, the risk of giving back those gains often outweighs the potential for further, smaller gains. Securing a profit and moving on to the next high-probability setup is the mark of a professional.

Conclusion: A Day of Decision

Today is packed with market-moving events. The Fed's decision and press conference will set the immediate direction, but as Gareth's analysis reveals, there may be powerful narrative forces at play ready to influence the market's reaction. From the political chess surrounding Oracle's earnings to the precise technical levels on the S&P 500, traders have a clear roadmap of what to watch.

The key is to filter out the noise and focus on the charts. Respect resistance until it's broken. Understand the probabilities of each setup. And most importantly, trade with logic, not emotion. Whether the market rallies on a less-hawkish-than-feared Fed or sells off on a stern warning, the levels discussed today will be the ultimate arbiters of the next major move.