Trading The Close Market Recap - 01/14/2026: Precious Metals Surge as Big Tech Shows Cracks

In a market session defined by powerful cross-currents, precious metals are soaring to new all-time highs while cracks are beginning to show in the armor of big-tech leaders. This divergence creates a landscape rich with opportunity for the disciplined trader. In this afternoon's Trading The Close, guest host Benjamin Pool of Verified Investing dissected these critical themes, revealing precise technical levels and actionable strategies for navigating the volatility. From potential topping patterns in gold to compelling long setups in beaten-down energy and tech names, today's analysis provides a masterclass in patience, probability, and execution.

Precious Metals: Navigating All-Time Highs

The precious metals complex is experiencing a historic surge, with both gold and silver forging new all-time highs. While this parabolic momentum is exciting, it also demands a more nuanced and strategic approach, as the absence of historical resistance forces traders to rely on psychological levels and market structure.

Silver, in particular, is in a state of extreme extension. After respecting a multi-hit upsloping trendline, it has launched into blue-sky territory. In these situations, traders often target whole round numbers. However, Ben outlined a more conservative and professional approach to profit-taking. While many may be targeting the $100.00 USD per ounce level, he identified $95.00 USD as a more strategic area.

"I would take profits before that $100 per ounce level just so that way I can make sure and lock in that profit… I would be more conservative and I would think that more people would be conservative like me and so $95 an ounce is where I would short this."

This insight reveals a key aspect of market psychology: anticipating where the crowd will act and positioning yourself slightly ahead of them. By targeting $95.00 USD, with secondary resistance at $97.50 USD, a trader can secure profits before the potential flood of sell orders at the major $100.00 USD psychological barrier.

Gold presents a different, more immediate setup. Despite making a new all-time high, yesterday's session closed with a "topping tail" candle—a bearish reversal signal where price pushes to a new high intra-day but closes significantly lower. This indicates that sellers overwhelmed buyers at the peak. For traders looking to play a potential pullback, this pattern provides a clearly defined risk level. The high of that topping tail, at $4,634.00 USD an ounce, serves as a critical stop-out point. A daily close above that level would invalidate the bearish thesis. The downside target for this potential move is the major upsloping trendline support around the $4,300.00 USD level, which has served as the backbone of this entire rally.

Industrial Metals: Coiling for a Breakout

While gold and silver capture the headlines, industrial precious metals like palladium and platinum are forming powerful technical patterns that suggest significant upside potential may be on the horizon.

Palladium is carving out a massive cup and handle pattern—a classic bullish continuation formation characterized by a rounded bottom (the cup) followed by a period of sideways consolidation (the handle). The key resistance level to watch is $1,972.00 USD. A breakout above this level could be explosive. Ben highlighted the significance of the wide-range red bar candle within the pattern, noting that as price grinds higher, it allows trapped buyers to exit, thereby exhausting sellers and paving the way for a stronger move. If a breakout occurs, the measured move from the pattern projects a staggering upside target.

"You could go all the way as high as $3,106.65 on Palladium. That would just be the measured move from this rounded bottom."

Platinum offers a similar story of building pressure. The price has been rejected from the $2,446.00 USD resistance level five separate times. While this might seem bearish, in technical analysis, each test of a resistance level tends to weaken it. This repeated knocking on the door suggests that a breakout is becoming increasingly likely. However, the strategy here is not to buy the initial break. The professional approach is to wait for a confirmed breakout, followed by a retracement back to the breakout level (the former resistance, now new support), to establish a long position with a clearly defined risk level.

Crypto Setups: Patience at Key Levels

The cryptocurrency market continues to offer distinct and compelling technical setups. For Bitcoin, the key is waiting for a pullback to a high-probability entry zone. After a strong move up, chasing price is a low-probability play. Instead, the ideal entry comes on a retracement to the "scene of the crime"—the prior breakout area. For Bitcoin, that level is approximately $94,300.00 USD. A pullback to this zone would offer a strategic long entry. It is also crucial to recognize the psychological barrier of the $100,000.00 USD whole round number, which is likely to act as significant resistance and could trigger the very pullback traders are waiting for.

Ethereum is displaying a more immediate breakout scenario. The price is attempting to emerge from a large wedge pattern, having pushed above a multi-hit downsloping trendline. The critical step now is confirmation. A daily close above $3,766.00 USD would confirm the breakout and signal a potential major trend change. But even with confirmation, the entry strategy remains patient.

"How you would trade this is you would actually wait for a retracement to the scene of the crime, getting in around $3,249.32 roughly on the chart."

This disciplined approach of waiting for a retest of the broken trendline accomplishes two things: it provides a much better risk/reward entry, and it offers a clear stop-out point if the price were to fall back inside the wedge, invalidating the breakout.

Big Tech Shows Signs of Weakness

While metals and crypto show strength, some of the market's biggest technology leaders are flashing warning signs. Microsoft, a bellwether for the entire market, is exhibiting significant technical deterioration. The stock is breaking below the midline of a massive, multi-year parallel channel. This is a structurally significant event that suggests a shift in trend. The next immediate support pivot is at $455.53 USD, but a break below that opens the door to much lower levels, including $441.00 USD and a major gap fill at $425.00 USD. A move to $425.00 USD would represent a 17% correction from the highs—a substantial but entirely plausible pullback given the technical breakdown.

NVIDIA is also approaching a critical decision point. The stock is nearing the third touch of a key upsloping trendline originating from the April 2025 lows. In technical analysis, the third hit of a trendline is often considered a high-probability buying opportunity. However, Ben is exercising even greater patience, eyeing a more substantial support zone for a long-term entry.

"For me, I'm waiting for a breakdown to $152.72 for a long play. I'll probably go long NVDL because I like a little bit more leverage based on this previous price action in the charts."

This level at $152.72 USD represents a confluence of major prior resistance that should now act as powerful support, offering a superior risk/reward opportunity for a leveraged swing trade.

Netflix has already suffered a significant breakdown, slicing through a major upsloping trendline following news of a potential acquisition of WBD. The stock is currently down 33% from its highs, and the next major support level sits at $82.39 USD. A drop to this level would constitute a 38% "haircut." This area of prior price consolidation is where a technical bounce is most likely to occur. The strategy would be to play for that bounce, with a potential profit target on a retest of the broken trendline from below, which will now act as resistance.

High-Conviction Plays Emerge from the Carnage

Amid the broader market churn, specific stocks and commodities are approaching levels that represent high-conviction swing trading opportunities. Natural Gas, a notoriously volatile commodity known as the "widow maker," has plummeted nearly 9% in a single day. This capitulation is driving the price directly into a massive support level at $2.7365 USD. This isn't just any level; it's the "scene of the crime" from which the last major 100% rally was launched. For traders who can stomach the volatility, entering near this major double-bottom support offers a compelling long setup.

In the tech space, Duolingo (DUOL) is presenting a similar opportunity. After failing to hold support at $161.41 USD, the stock is now heading toward its next, and more significant, support zone at $144.96 USD. This level is defined by a prior pivot low and a wide area of price consolidation.

"If we can drop just a little bit more, Duolingo is going to be a killer swing trade. I think you could take at least 15% to 20% on a bounce on Duolingo."

This is a prime example of how a disciplined trader identifies a key level in advance and patiently waits for the price to come to them, ready to act when a high-probability setup materializes.

Conclusion: A Market of Discipline and Divergence

Today's market is a textbook example of divergence, with strength in hard assets and weakness in market-leading technology stocks. This environment underscores the necessity of a disciplined, technically-driven approach. The key lessons from today's analysis are universal: wait for price to come to your predetermined levels, understand the psychology of round numbers and crowd behavior, and always have a clearly defined risk plan before entering any trade. Whether it's shorting a topping tail in gold, buying a capitulatory sell-off in natural gas, or patiently waiting for a breakout and retest in platinum, the principles of professional trading remain the same. By focusing on high-probability setups where multiple technical factors align, traders can confidently navigate any market condition.