Trading The Close Market Recap - 10/15/2025: S&P 500 Holds 20‑DMA as AI & Robotics Surge — SMH, Tesla, Gold in Focus

In this afternoon's Trading The Close show, Pro Trader Drew Dosek from Verified Investing navigated a market session defined by underlying volatility and critical tests of key technical levels. While the major indices ended with a mixed-bag result, the intraday price action revealed a fierce battle between buyers and sellers, particularly around significant moving averages. The session also shined a spotlight on the explosive momentum in the robotics and AI sectors, creating both massive opportunities and potential pitfalls for undisciplined traders.

Today’s article will delve deeper into the key themes from the show, exploring the precarious position of the S&P 500, the critical role of semiconductors as a market bellwether, the parabolic moves in the robotics space, and the powerful technical patterns shaping the future of mega-cap stocks like Tesla and AMD.

The S&P 500's Battle at a Critical Threshold

While the S&P 500 closed with a modest gain of 0.21%, this simple number masks the day's underlying drama. The real story unfolded at the 20-day moving average, a key short-term trend indicator. For the first time since the market bottomed in April, the index had spent multiple consecutive days below this level, signaling a potential shift in character. As Drew noted, this was a significant development:

"We're now closing four days in a row beneath this 20 moving average. It's the first time this has happened since this April low that occurred… we haven't even closed consecutively two days beneath the 20 moving average."

This streak of weakness suggested that downside pressure was building. However, in the final moments of trading, a surge of buying pressure pushed the SPY ETF to a close of 665.17, just pennies above the 20 moving average, which stood at 665.07. This last-minute save turns what was looking like a bearish confirmation into a moment of high tension and uncertainty. Is this a sign of resilience, or just a temporary reprieve before the next leg down?

The technical lines are clearly drawn. To the upside, the primary obstacle is the high of last Friday’s large red candle at 673.95. Reclaiming that level would be a significant victory for the bulls. To the downside, major support lies in the 640 range, a level defined by a previous pivot high. With options expiration this Friday, the jockeying between institutional players could lead to continued volatility as they position to have contracts expire in their favor.

Semiconductors: The Market's Leading Indicator

When trying to gauge the health and potential longevity of a market rally, professional traders often look to leading indicators. As Drew consistently highlights, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is one of the most important charts to watch. Today, the SMH showed impressive strength, beginning to recover from the sharp sell-off on Friday.

"The SMH is a leading indicator, folks. Pay attention to this chart if you're wanting to know if the market rally will continue or putter out."

For the broader market to regain its footing and push higher, the SMH will likely need to lead the way. The key resistance levels are now clearly defined. The high of Friday's bearish candle is at $346.49, and a recent daily topping tail sits just above it at $348.53. If the SMH can decisively break through this zone of resistance, it would signal that there is still "some gas left in the tank for the markets to go a little bit higher." A failure at these levels, however, could confirm that the recent rally is losing steam, potentially dragging the rest of the market down with it.

The Robotics Revolution: Navigating Parabolic Moves

A dominant theme in today’s market was the explosive interest in robotics and artificial intelligence. This wave of speculative buying is creating incredible moves in related stocks, from data centers and energy providers to the chipmakers and, now, the robot manufacturers themselves. This frenzy was on full display today.

iRobot (IRBT) closed up over 36%, while Symbiotic (SYM), another AI robotics company, has surged an incredible 51% since the end of September. While these moves are exciting, they also present a significant psychological challenge for investors who feel they are missing out. Chasing stocks after such massive gains is often a recipe for disaster. This is where a disciplined, technical approach becomes invaluable.

Instead of chasing, Drew’s analysis focused on identifying logical areas for entry after the inevitable pullback. For iRobot, after a massive breakout, the first key support level to watch is around $4.62. This represents a potential area where the stock could cool off and offer a more favorable risk-reward entry.

Similarly, on Symbiotic, Drew pointed out the reality of profit-taking: "From the end of September to where current price is, 51%, I'd be jamming that sell button, taking my profits, moving on to another trade." This mindset is crucial. After such a run, a period of consolidation or a pullback is healthy and expected. For those looking to get involved, key support levels to watch are at $70.80 and $65.37.

Even AMD, a semiconductor giant, is part of this narrative. Drew made a bold statement about its future: "AMD is going to be, in essence, another NVIDIA. This chip stock is going to be very big and it's going to continue to grow very big." However, even with this bullish long-term outlook, the chart is flashing near-term warning signs. The stock is approaching the top of a multi-year parallel channel around $241.41 and is technically overbought. A rejection from this level would be a gift for patient investors, potentially offering opportunities to buy at a discount near the $200.00 or $177.60 support zones.

Tesla's Powerful Pattern and the Optimus Catalyst

A question from a viewer brought Tesla into focus, revealing a powerful technical setup that aligns perfectly with the robotics theme. The viewer noted an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the hourly chart, a bullish formation that projects a target of $457.27. However, Drew identified an even more significant pattern:

"I've got a bigger inverse head and shoulders pattern and it's on the daily timeframe. These are more powerful. You see it outlined in blue that that takes Tesla all the way up here to $512.97."

This larger pattern suggests substantial upside potential for Tesla. The fundamental catalyst that could fuel such a move is the company’s venture into robotics with its Optimus humanoid robot. Should Tesla make significant progress in rolling out what is "supposed to be one of the most economical robot options out there," it could be a massive game-changer for the company's valuation.

For traders looking to position for this potential move, the chart provides a clear roadmap. Key support levels to watch for buying opportunities are at $424.13, $395.17, and $381.37. These levels offer defined areas to enter a position with a favorable risk profile ahead of a potential run toward the measured move target above $500.

Commodities Corner: Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin

The commodity markets are painting a picture of divergence. Gold and Silver continue their meteoric rise, while Bitcoin is showing signs of near-term weakness.

Gold is in its ninth consecutive week of gains, an extended run that suggests a pullback is becoming more likely. The chart has broken out of a major parallel channel, and a fundamental principle of technical analysis is that price often returns to retest the level from which it broke out. For Gold, this means the first major support area to watch on a pullback is around the $4,000.00 mark.

Silver is in a similar, if not more aggressive, uptrend, closing at a new all-time high of $53.10. Its next major resistance target within its steep parallel channel is near $56.91. For investors who have missed the move, Drew’s advice is counterintuitive but wise: "You want to see this move rapidly up. You want to see this continue the pace so that the rejection from this area… will also have a rapid rejection in price," potentially bringing it down to support levels around $50.00 for a better entry.

In contrast, Bitcoin is showing signs of fatigue. After being rejected from a key declining trend line for the fifth time, it is now forming a potential near-term bear flag. If this pattern plays out, a measured move could take the price down toward the psychologically critical $100,000 level. This area has historically served as both major resistance and major support, and Drew anticipates that "you better believe there's going to be a lot of buyers waiting there if price does start plunging down to the $100,000 mark."

Conclusion: Patience and Precision in a Tense Market

Today’s market action serves as a powerful reminder that headline numbers rarely tell the whole story. Beneath the surface of a mixed close lies a market at a critical inflection point. The S&P 500 is fighting a crucial battle at its 20-day moving average, while the explosive moves in the AI and robotics sectors highlight both immense opportunity and the danger of emotional, undisciplined trading.

Across every chart, from indices to individual stocks to commodities, the analysis reinforces a core principle: trading success comes from patience and precision. By identifying key technical levels in advance—be it a moving average on the SPY, a channel top on AMD, or a breakout retest on Gold—traders can remove emotion from the equation and wait for the market to come to them. With a technical eye and a patient mindset, investors can confidently navigate the volatility and capitalize on the high-probability opportunities the market provides.