Trading The Close Market Recap - 11/12/2025: Dow Tests Key Trendline, Bitcoin Weakens, Gold & Silver Rally

In a market session that felt more like a quiet chess match than a high-octane race, the Dow Jones Industrial Average made a decisive move, capturing another all-time high. Meanwhile, the broader S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq took a breather, consolidating in a sideways pattern. This divergence set the stage for a fascinating day of analysis on the Trading The Close show, where Pro Trader Drew Dosek of Verified Investing dissected the subtle yet powerful technical signals shaping the market's next move. From a masterclass in trend line analysis to critical updates on commodities and cryptocurrencies, the day’s action provided a wealth of insight for the prepared trader.

A Divergent Market Story

While the S&P 500 finished flat and the Nasdaq pulled back a modest 0.28%, the Dow Jones climbed 0.69% to notch another record closing high. This split personality in the major indices often signals underlying rotations and shifts in market sentiment. The most compelling part of the Dow’s story, however, lies in its interaction with a long-term technical boundary.

As Drew highlighted, the Dow is currently re-challenging a major inclining trend line that it broke earlier. In classic technical analysis, when an asset breaks a key support trend line, it often returns to "retest" that line from below, which then acts as resistance. A rejection at this retest typically signals a much larger move down. Drew noted the significance of the current price action:

"Normally, whenever we have a scenario like this where we break a trend line, retest the trend line, the stock and or index collapses and starts coming down. That shows that there's relative strength here on the Dow Jones, at least for the near term."

The Dow’s refusal to collapse and its persistent push against this former support level—now resistance at 48,594—is a testament to its current strength. This is a critical battleground. A decisive break back above this trend line could invalidate the previous breakdown signal, while a firm rejection could finally trigger the expected pullback. This dynamic makes the Dow the leading index to watch for clues about the market's overall health and direction.

The Art and Science of Trend Lines

Today’s show served as a powerful lesson in the practical application of technical analysis, demonstrating how simple lines on a chart can illuminate high-probability trading opportunities. Drew walked through several examples where trend lines, drawn from historical price pivots, precisely identified key support and resistance levels in real-time.

ONON: Where "X" Marks the Spot

On Holding (ONON) provided a textbook example of multi-factor resistance following a massive 17.99% gap-up on strong earnings and increased guidance. Despite the blowout report, the stock opened, surged, and then sharply reversed. The reason wasn't random; it was technical. Drew revealed the two factors that created a perfect rejection zone:

1. Horizontal Resistance: A trend line drawn across the price pivots from late August created a clear horizontal barrier.
2. Inclining Resistance: A second trend line connecting a pivot from June to another in September intersected with the first line at the exact point where the stock peaked.

As Drew explained, this confluence created a high-probability setup: "Look what happens. I got an X marks the spot right here. Great for a day trade. Rejected price." This "X marks the spot" phenomenon, where two or more independent technical factors converge, dramatically increases the odds of a price reaction. The stock not only rejected this level but was pushed back below a long-term trend line from 2022, setting up a new critical battle at $42.80.

Oracle: Finding Support in a Waterfall Decline

Oracle’s chart presents the opposite scenario: a stock in a steep 34% decline searching for a floor. In these situations, finding reliable support can feel like catching a falling knife. However, by zooming out and connecting distant pivots, a powerful long-term support line emerged. By drawing a line from a pivot in December 2021 across the tops of pivots in November 2024, Drew identified a critical level.

This trend line, which previously acted as resistance, was now positioned to become support—a core principle of technical analysis known as polarity. With the stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) in deep oversold territory below 30, the setup for a bounce becomes compelling. The trend line sits at $225.80, offering a precise level for traders to watch for a potential reversal, with a minimum bounce target of around $247.00 for a nearly 10% move.

Rivian: Charting a Path Forward

Rivian’s chart demonstrated how trend lines can create a "roadmap" for managing a trade. The stock is trading within a broad inclining parallel channel and recently broke above the 50% midpoint line—a bullish sign. However, immediate resistance appeared. By connecting a pivot from January to another recent pivot, Drew identified another inclining trend line that perfectly capped today's advance at $17.95. This creates a clear, tiered structure for traders:

"It helps you as a trader understand what's going on with your trade. That way you can take profits if we get rejected here, maybe leave half on the table, see if we get another returning bounce, and then play it for another higher move on the charts."

This approach transforms trading from a guessing game into a strategic exercise. If RIVN breaks $17.95, the next target is the $18.86 pivot. A break above that opens the door to the top of the parallel channel. This compartmentalization allows for dynamic trade management based on how the price reacts at each key level.

Bitcoin's Bearish Consolidation

After a sharp rejection at its own inclining parallel channel yesterday, Bitcoin continued to show signs of weakness. The force of that rejection was strong enough to push the price back below a key declining trend line. Today’s price action saw Bitcoin hovering near the closing prices of the past several sessions, a pattern Drew identified as a red flag.

This type of price action, following a major rejection from resistance, is often described as "bearish consolidation." The failure to immediately bounce back suggests that sellers are in control and the asset is gathering energy for its next move lower. The technical picture points to a likely test of the next major support level at $97,658. Given the recent weakness, this may not be the ultimate bottom. For bulls to regain control, Bitcoin must first reclaim the broken declining trend line and then ultimately break into the overhead parallel channel.

A Tale of Two Commodities: Metals vs. Oil

The commodity space was a story of stark contrasts. Precious metals continued their powerful ascent, while crude oil experienced a sharp sell-off.

Gold pushed higher by 1.69%, running directly into the resistance zone around $4,200 identified yesterday. This area, defined by the underside of previous price pivots, is the next hurdle before a potential retest of the all-time highs at $4,381.

Even more impressive was Silver, which displayed significant relative strength. While Gold paused at its first resistance, Silver ripped right through a similar pivot zone and continued higher. This strength suggests a move toward the next major resistance levels at $54.56 and, more significantly, the middle of its long-term parallel channel near $56.28.

Conversely, U.S. Oil plummeted 4.29% after fundamental news shifted the supply outlook. OPEC and the EIA both released forecasts predicting more balanced or oversupplied conditions into 2026, with the EIA projecting a potential average Brent price of $55.00 next year. This news completely reversed yesterday's bullish consolidation, resulting in a massive red candle. Drew offered a crucial piece of trading wisdom:

"Whenever you have a big red candle or a big green candle, try to pay attention to those because those will likely dictate price action in the near term."

The immediate support for oil now lies around $57.50, with the longer-term target of $55.00 aligning perfectly with a major pivot low from April.

Key Stocks Approaching Decision Points

Beyond the broader market moves, several individual stocks are sitting at critical technical junctures.

Meta Platforms (Meta) continues to flirt with its crucial support level at $600.38. After a brief bounce on November 7th, the price is once again descending to test this floor. A decisive break and close below this level would likely trigger a larger move down to the bottom of its long-term inclining parallel channel, which currently projects to the $550 area.

Xpeng (XPEV) is heading into earnings on Monday with its stock in a precarious position. It has successfully broken above a declining trend line but is now approaching the top of its parallel channel resistance near $28.56. Furthermore, its RSI at 65.87 is nearing overbought territory. This creates a high-risk scenario where a positive earnings report could still be met with heavy selling pressure at channel resistance, while a negative report could send the stock tumbling back to test the old trend line as new support around $25.10.

Conclusion: Navigating the Noise with Technical Clarity

Today’s muted market surface concealed a number of powerful underlying currents. From the Dow’s test of a critical long-term trend line to the precise technical rejections and support tests in individual stocks, the session was a testament to the power of technical analysis. It provides a framework to cut through the noise, identify high-probability setups, and manage risk effectively.

The lessons from ONON, Oracle, and Rivian show that by connecting historical price pivots, traders can build a reliable map of future support and resistance. Understanding these levels is not about predicting the future with certainty; it is about identifying key decision points where the probabilities shift. As the market continues to navigate this period of divergence and consolidation, those who can read the language of the charts will be best equipped to capitalize on the opportunities that lie ahead.