Trading The Close Market Recap - 11/17/2025: Fed Repricing Sparks Broad Selloff — SPY Loses 50-Day; IWM, Bitcoin & Oil at Key Levels

The market's character showed a significant shift today as selling pressure mounted across the board, pushing major indices below critical technical levels. A change in the narrative surrounding future Fed rate cuts appears to be the primary catalyst, creating headwinds for equities and putting a spotlight on key support zones. In this afternoon's Trading The Close, Pro Trader Drew Dosek of Verified Investing broke down the technical damage, revealed a new long-term perspective on Bitcoin, and identified specific levels to watch in stocks and commodities as volatility picks up.

A Decisive Break in Trend

After weeks of resilient upward momentum, the S&P 500 has finally shown a crack in its armor. Today, the SPY not only closed below a crucial inclining trendline originating from August 1st but also settled beneath its 50-day simple moving average. This is the first time since the major rally began in April that the index has decisively lost this key technical support level. While it briefly tagged and bounced off the 50-day moving average in a previous test, today’s close confirms a change in market sentiment and opens the door for further downside probing.

This technical breakdown isn't happening in a vacuum. The underlying cause can be traced directly to shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The CME FedWatch Tool, a barometer for market sentiment on future interest rate moves, has undergone a dramatic repricing. Just a few weeks ago, a rate cut at the December 10th FOMC meeting was viewed as a near certainty, with probabilities around 80%. Today, that narrative has flipped entirely, with the tool now indicating a 55% chance that rates will remain unchanged. This pivot from "guaranteed cut" to "coin flip" has sent ripples through the market, forcing investors to reassess valuations, particularly for companies reliant on cheaper capital.

With key economic data, including PPI and unemployment figures, due out on Thursday, these probabilities could shift again. As Drew noted, “all of that is what the Fed likes to use to make sure to then determine if they're going to cut rates or not so that that percentage and that CME predictable tool that we just showed you may in fact change later this week come Thursday.” For now, the market is voting with its feet, and the technical picture reflects this newfound uncertainty.

Small Caps Feel the Squeeze

The impact of changing rate expectations was most acutely felt in the small-cap sector. The IWM, the ETF tracking the Russell 2000 index, experienced a "big sell" today, decisively breaking through a support level that had held on Friday. This underperformance is a textbook reaction to a more hawkish Fed outlook.

Unlike the mega-cap tech giants that are flush with cash, many smaller companies are not yet profitable and rely on access to capital markets to fund operations, research, and growth initiatives. When the cost of borrowing money remains high, or the prospect of it getting cheaper fades, it puts direct pressure on their business models and future profitability. This fundamental headwind translates directly into selling pressure on their stocks.

The technical setup for the IWM is now precarious. Today’s close below support was the first step; a follow-up day of selling tomorrow would confirm the breakdown and significantly increase the odds of a move down to the next major support level at $221.81. While there may be some minor hesitation at the top of a prior consolidation range, the path of least resistance appears to be lower until a more substantial support zone is tested.

Bitcoin at a Long-Term Crossroads

While equities grappled with Fed policy, Bitcoin faced its own pivotal test. After a sharp decline over the weekend, Bitcoin’s price found a footing right at the 50% median line of a new, wider-angled parallel channel. This particular channel, as Drew revealed on the show, does a better job of encompassing Bitcoin's price action over a longer timeframe, providing a more robust structural map.

The current position at this 50% line is critical. In the past, this median has acted as both support and resistance, a gravitational center for price. A bounce from here could be significant, but a failure to hold this level opens up a far more dramatic scenario. Drew explained the gravity of the situation: “what it really does is it gives you a window into how bad it could get for Bitcoin if the selling persists. Look where the bottom end of this parallel is at, it's at $59,000 folks.”

This isn't a prediction, but a technical possibility that the chart presents. The idea of Bitcoin falling to $59,000 may seem outlandish, especially after so many analysts claimed it would "never get back under $100,000," but the chart provides a logical pathway for such a move if the 50% median line fails to hold. A sustained trade in the lower half of this channel would increase the probabilities of an eventual test of the channel's lower bound. For crypto investors, this long-term structure is essential to understand as it frames both the current support test and the potential risk ahead.

The Power of a Failed Move: A Lesson from Oil

One of the most valuable lessons from today's analysis came from the U.S. Oil chart. After a massive sell-off last Wednesday, oil has been attempting a recovery. However, it has failed to reclaim the high of that big red candle, which is now acting as near-term control and resistance. The current price action suggests probabilities favor more downside.

However, Drew highlighted a crucial concept for all traders, especially beginners. “Trend lines do fail, they're meant to fail folks and that's the… thing [about] technical analysis, especially beginners need to understand and grasp because when they fail you usually have the biggest moves from these failed moves.”

This concept of a "failed move" is what separates novice chart-watchers from seasoned traders. In the case of oil, if price were to unexpectedly rally and close above the high of that controlling red candle, the bearish signal would be negated. This failure would trap short-sellers and force them to cover their positions, adding fuel to an upward surge. As Drew explained, this is how technical analysis works in the real world: traders identify signals, and when those signals fail, the rush to exit and reverse positions accelerates the move in the opposite direction. Watching the oil chart for either a confirmation of the downtrend or a powerful "failed move" to the upside will be a masterclass in real-time technical analysis.

Stocks in the Spotlight: Topping Tails and Technical Tests

Several individual stocks provided compelling case studies in today's session:

• Google (GOOGL): Despite fantastic news over the weekend that Berkshire Hathaway has taken a stake, Google’s price action told a cautionary tale. The stock gapped up, made a fresh all-time high at $293.95, but then reversed sharply to close well off its highs, printing a "daily topping tail." This long upper wick is a classic sign of a rejection at higher prices and suggests that near-term exhaustion has set in. The good news was sold, and the chart now points to a likely pullback toward support at $270.32, with a much stronger, multi-year support level waiting at $257.81.
• Micron (MU): Similar to Google, Micron pushed to a new high before reversing hard, also forming a topping tail. This pattern, much like a large solid red candle, indicates that sellers overwhelmed buyers at the peak and suggests a move lower is probable. The key uptrend line to watch is at $232.71.
• Dell (DELL): Dell was hit by a perfect storm of bad news: a double downgrade from Morgan Stanley, which slashed its price target from $144 USD to $110 USD, and growing concerns about surging memory costs threatening future margins. The stock has plummeted over 28% from its recent highs. However, such dramatic falls often lead to sharp technical bounces. Today, Dell tagged a gap fill level, which could serve as the launching point for a relief rally. A common technical occurrence is for a stock to retest the trendline it broke, which for Dell would mean a potential bounce back toward the $145.09 USD area.
• Coinbase (COIN): Unsurprisingly, Coinbase has been falling in tandem with Bitcoin. Today, it slammed directly into a major support level at $257.97 USD, with the day's low hitting $258.22 USD. With Bitcoin also sitting on its critical 50% median line support, the stage is set for a potential synchronized bounce. A relief rally in Bitcoin could easily propel Coinbase back toward the $300 USD resistance level. However, if this support breaks, the next major target lies at a long-term declining trendline near $222.66 USD.

Conclusion: Navigating a Change in Character

Today's session was more than just a red day; it was a day where the market's character palpably shifted. The break of key trendlines and moving averages in the S&P 500, driven by a fundamental reassessment of Fed policy, has changed the landscape. Small caps are under duress, Bitcoin is testing a make-or-break long-term level, and even stocks with good news are showing signs of exhaustion.

The roadmap ahead is laid out on the charts. The key levels identified across indices, commodities, and individual stocks will serve as the battlegrounds between bulls and bears in the coming days. By remaining disciplined, respecting the technical signals, and understanding the macro forces at play, traders can navigate this more volatile environment with clarity and confidence.