GDP Stats (Quarter over Quarter)

GDP for the first quarter of 2024 fell sharply, coming in at 1.60% vs the expected 2.5%. The previous quarter (fourth quarter 2023) was 3.4%.

This extremely sharp decline in GDP should be a warning sign to investors. While just one data (and it will have two revisions), it may signal a sharply slowing economy.

In addition, we know that inflation is on the rise. Whether investors and economists look at PCE, CPI or PPI, they are all on the rise.

This warrants the discussion of if we are entering a period known as stagflation. Stagflation is where growth is slowing and negative but inflation is rising. While rare, it has happened historically and wrecks consumers.