10 Year Yield Likely Headed Down To 4.40%

The 10 year yield has likely topped out. This is based on technical analysis. Since the 10 year yield was trading below 4% in early 2024, yields have been held in a perfect parallel channel. With the latest hawkish Federal Reserve comments, yields popped to 4.70% and expectations for rate cuts fell to just one in 2024.

Investor panic over higher-for-longer signals a potential top on rates. Add technical analysis to the mix, and it is likely a pull back in yields is coming.

The low end of the channel is 4.40%. This gives traders and investors a floor of where to expect rates to fall in the near-term.

Possible factors for a lower 10 year yield could be the PCE data coming later this week or a weaker Non Farm Payrolls Report in early May.