GAME PLAN REVEALED: 05/13/2025
In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, broke down the latest CPI print, key equity benchmarks, fixed-income dynamics, and standout swing-trade setups across stocks and commodities. The central theme remains probability-based technical analysis: identifying confluence levels to tilt the odds in your favor. Today we expand on those takeaways—adding historical context, deeper technical insights, and the trader psychology behind each setup.
1. CPI Data and Immediate Market Reaction
The April CPI came in at 2.3% year-over-year (2.4% expected) and 2.0% month-over-month (3.0% expected).
"Still no sign of the tariffs that have been imposed here over the last month or so in the data yet, at least."
The surprising moderation likely reflects a plunging housing component—double-weighted in CPI—and raises two key questions:
- Will shelter’s downward drag persist?
- Could rolling back China tariffs further cap inflation?
Intraday, S&P 500 futures briefly spiked on the headline number before relinquishing gains once algorithms and savvy traders recognized the housing distortion. This “fake breakout” is akin to what we saw in early 2022, when a single data point misled momentum engines. It underscores the importance of looking beneath the headline: durable goods, services inflation, and wage growth will confirm whether this is a one-off or a sustained disinflation trend.
For traders, the lesson is clear: initial knee-jerk moves often revert when the “real” data is parsed. Waiting for post-print consolidation—rather than chasing the spike—improves your probability of entering true market-leading moves.
2. The S&P 500’s V-Bottom Rebound and Key Resistance
Since the April 7th low, the S&P has rallied nearly 26%, echoing the March–April 2020 COVID recovery.
"It’s a great V-bottom recovery in the market … but I won’t fully trust this market until we confirm above all-time highs."
On a 10-minute futures chart, the S&P remains pinned under yesterday’s key resistance zone (5,950–6,000 futures; 5,866 cash at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement). This level aligns with multiple little lows and a pivot point, creating a multi-factor confluence target. Gap-fills and Fibonacci levels frequently act as “price magnets” before a decisive breakout or rejection.
Historical precedent shows V-bottoms often test prior highs, then either accelerate or roll over. After the March 2020 collapse, the S&P retested its February high within two months—but then pulled back 12% in June. Traders who blindly assumed “the V-bottom always leads to new highs” were caught leaning too far into crowded longs. The current setup demands patience: wait for a weekly close above 6,000 futures to validate the new leg higher. Until then, respect resistance and manage risk.
3. Nasdaq’s Next Technical Hurdle: 19,500
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has recouped roughly 26% since early April, but faces stiff resistance around 19,500. That zone combines:
- Multiple April pivot lows
- The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April sell-off
A break above 19,500 could trigger a squeeze into fresh highs, but the confluence here makes it a logical place for profit-taking or short-term counter-trend trades. Narrowing volatility and volume divergence ominously mirror late-2021, when tech stocks breached key fib levels only to correct sharply thereafter.
Positioning tips:
- Trim or hedge existing tech exposure as 19,500 nears.
- Scale into short-term bearish plays only after clear intra-day rejection.
- Watch market breadth: narrow leadership suggests fragility even if the index breaks out.
4. 10-Year Treasury Yield: PTSD at 4.6%
The 10-year yield flirted with 4.6%—a level that sparked panic in earlier sell-offs. Rising yields compress equity valuations by raising discount rates on future earnings. Historically, yields above 4.5% (as in 2018) coincided with a 20% S&P correction.
After the CPI miss, intraday yields dipped slightly, reflecting renewed hopes for Fed rate cuts. Yet the longer-term trend remains higher: bond bears have reasserted themselves amid aggressive Fed rhetoric. Should yields revisit 4.6%, equity markets may see increased volatility and defensiveness.
Traders should monitor:
- Yield-equity correlation spikes (historically precede equity pullbacks).
- Auction stops: high-yield Treasury auctions could trigger sharp moves.
- Fed speakers: hawkish comments can send yields swiftly back to critical thresholds.
5. Spotlight on Swing-Trade Setups: Coinbase and UnitedHealth
Coinbase (COIN): Playing the S&P Inclusion Pop
Yesterday’s announcement that Coinbase will join the S&P 500 next Monday ignited a nearly 10% pre-market rally. Index funds and ETFs tracking the S&P must buy newly added constituents, leading to front-running by smart money and retail alike.
"My job is to just look at the data and the confluence of factors that align to give myself an edge."
Key technical setup:
- Resistance at $245–250:
- Former support becomes resistance.
- 50% Fibonacci retracement (from $350 high to $143 low) aligns here.
This two-factor confluence zone offers ~60–70% odds of a pullback. Traders can initiate small short positions near $245, tighten stops just above $250, and target the April low ($143) for a full retracement.
UnitedHealth (UNH): Identifying Capitulation
UNH plummeted ~10% after its CEO announced departure and guidance was suspended. Such cascading events often produce panic selling—and the capitulation washout can mark an institutional buying opportunity.
Key levels:
- Gap fill & 50% fib at ~$323 (from 2008 low to all-time high).
- Secondary pivot support at ~$288.
A staged swing-trade allocation could look like:
- Initiate a 25% position near $323
- Add another 25% at $288 if broken
- Keep 50% dry powder for a potential drop toward $240–250
This tiered approach respects both technical confluence and risk management—legging in as lower-probability levels come into play.
6. Commodities and Crypto Corner
Bitcoin: Marathon-Runner Consolidation
Bitcoin has rallied from its April low into a double-top zone around $109,000 and now sits atop prior resistance turned support near $104,000.
"If you run a marathon … you need to rest … consolidate and rejuvenate before you can make that next move."
This bullish consolidation pattern—big move, pause, re-acceleration—often precedes further gains. Flat to modestly positive days allow market participants to digest profits and ease leverage. A failure below $104,000 could trigger quick stops; a sustained hold sets the stage for a run at $112,000–113,000 trend-line resistance.
Gold & Silver: Patience in Precious Metals
Gold and silver have stalled after recent rallies. Gold’s bear-flag pattern suggests further consolidation toward $3,265 support; silver’s attempt to break above its trend line failed, keeping bulls in check. Miners (GDX) may offer a long entry on a pullback to the gold support zone—but only if multi-factor confluence appears (trend line + Fibonacci + pivot low).
Oil & Natural Gas: Supply-Driven Equilibrium
Crude oil continues to grind higher, nearing a cluster of prior highs at $65–66/barrel. That zone offers a textbook short-entry, given the bear-flag context off the March highs. Natural gas has stalled in a neutral range; extended time below major pivot levels could invalidate shorts, so traders should cross out stale levels and await fresh setups.
Conclusion: Trade the Probability Edge
Today’s GAME PLAN reinforces a core principle: trading is about probabilities, not certainties. From CPI head-fakes to V-bottom rebounds, from S&P resistance to yield-induced stress, the market constantly reminds us to respect confluence and discipline. Whether it’s the Coinbase pop, UNH capitulation play, or commodity consolidations, each opportunity hinges on multiple aligned factors and proper risk management.
Patience—waiting for clean setups at predetermined levels—and humility—acknowledging that even the best edges fail 20–30% of the time—are what separate transient winners from consistent performers. Watch these levels, leg in judiciously, and let probability work in your favor.
