GAME PLAN REVEALED: April 21, 2025
Markets Falter as Trade Silence and Fed Fears Shake Confidence
Introduction: A Market on Edge
Monday, April 21, 2025. It’s the first full trading day following the extended Good Friday holiday—and while some traders may have hoped for calm, markets delivered anything but. The S&P 500 futures opened the session down more than 1%, with no positive trade developments over the long weekend and fresh speculation swirling that President Trump might fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
This edition of Game Plan Revealed is your tactical deep dive into Gareth Soloway’s latest episode of “The Game Plan” on Verified Investing. We’ll walk through the trade deal vacuum, the cataclysmic risk of Fed upheaval, the anatomy of the current bull-flag on the S&P, and why gold, Bitcoin, the U.S. dollar, and yields are now linked in a rapidly shifting macro equation. Plus: Nvidia’s potential freefall, Alphabet’s 2-factor swing setup, and Tesla’s fourth-hit vulnerability.
1. No Progress on Trade: Risk Rises in the Absence of News
“The market is lower today… down over 1% on the S&P futures. The main culprit is just the fact that there’s been no positive movement on trade deals.”
The markets don’t need bad news to sell off. Sometimes, no news at all is worse. Traders opened Monday searching headlines for signs of progress with Japan, Europe, or especially China—hoping for serious negotiations to resume. But the long weekend produced nothing. No new agreements. No clear diplomatic meetings scheduled. No forward momentum.
Gareth emphasized the concern: “Markets are concerned because the longer trade deals take, the more damage to the U.S. economy is done.”
This is a lesson learned again and again: when uncertainty drags on, capital flees risk. Every day of delay introduces another opportunity for tariffs to drag on manufacturers, disrupt shipping, and increase costs across the board.
While China has previously expressed conditional openness to dialogue—“if the U.S. acts respectfully,” Gareth reminds us—markets aren’t pricing in hope right now. They’re pricing in doubt.
In the absence of a deal, investors default to risk-off mode. And when that mood takes over in the futures market, it often carries into the cash session with force.
2. Powell in the Crosshairs? A Potential Market Shock
“There’s continued chatter about potentially Trump firing Jerome Powell. Needless to say, if that happened it would cause a cataclysmic near-term event in the markets—yields probably spiking above 5% and the dollar collapsing.”
This comment wasn’t hyperbole. Gareth’s use of the word “cataclysmic” wasn’t for dramatic effect—it was a rational assessment of what would happen if the sitting president removed the Fed Chair in the middle of rising yields, trade stress, and a dollar breakdown.
Even the chatter about it moves markets. Investors immediately think:
- What happens to the Fed’s independence?
- Would bond buyers demand higher compensation to hold U.S. debt?
- Does this mark a new phase of politicized monetary policy?
If such an event were to occur, yields could spike above 5% overnight. Gareth explains why: “Yields going higher shows a disenfranchisement with U.S. debt from global partners.”
Foreign buyers are already cautious. Take away the perceived firewall of an independent Fed, and the confidence premium disappears.
Moreover, the dollar’s safe-haven status would take a severe hit. Gareth says outright: “The dollar would collapse.”
Whether this is a threat or mere political posturing, it’s a reminder of how quickly confidence can evaporate—and how essential it is to track macro headlines, not just charts.
3. S&P Futures: Is the Bull Flag Still Alive?
“We had the massive bounce a few Wednesdays ago and then since then… we’ve been slowly fading. Now the positive here is this fade could be a little bit of a consolidation before further upside… is this a flag pattern?”
One of the most important technical structures Gareth breaks down in this episode is the current bull flag on the S&P futures chart. It’s nuanced. Yes, the market is down—but that doesn’t immediately invalidate the bullish thesis.
Let’s walk through it:
- Flagpole: The big “green pole” Gareth refers to started with the sharp rally off the April 9 low. That’s your impulsive move—strong, vertical, volume-supported.
- Flag Formation: Since that rally, the market has faded gently. This slow drift lower is characteristic of a healthy bull flag—provided the range stays within defined parameters.
So what’s the danger?
“If we start breaking much lower than this—once we get out of the 618 Fibonacci and below that—it is no longer fitting in the mold of a bull flag.”
Gareth puts the line in the sand at 5,147—the low from the retrace day following the rally. “As long as that low holds, then I think you continue to favor the bull case here for a near-term move.”
In summary:
- Above 5,147: Bull flag still intact. Upside breakout potential.
- Below 5,147: Pattern invalidated. Momentum likely turns to the downside.
Traders should round up to 5,150 and treat it as the critical pivot. Stops below. Conviction above.
“Let’s not confuse this with mid- to long-term outlook—I’m still crazy bearish. But near-term, the flag is still valid… if that low holds.”
4. Yields Rise Again: The Fourth-Hit Breakout in Motion
“We came down and I said, ‘Okay guys, we’re back into this line—yields should start to turn up again.’ That is exactly what happened both on Thursday… and Monday.”
The 10-year yield has been tracking a rising trendline built off three previous pivot highs. Gareth flagged this last week, noting the fourth hit often signals a potential breakout—and sure enough, that’s what we’re seeing.
The breakout was confirmed, and after a brief pullback to retest the trendline, yields are now rising again.
Why is this dangerous?
- When foreign buyers pull back from U.S. treasuries (as Gareth says they are), the government has two choices: raise yields to attract buyers—or have the Fed step in and buy.
- But as Gareth cautions, “That’s basically the same as if we’re just buying it.” It undermines credibility, and markets know it.
Higher yields pressure stocks across the board, especially growth names. Expect more downside in equities if yields keep grinding higher. It’s not about the nominal level—it’s about the direction.
5. DXY Breakdown: The Dollar Is No Longer Bulletproof
“Not only did we break this downsloping trend line… we have continued to drop precipitously.”
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) broke support and is now falling fast. Gareth points out this isn’t a normal pullback—it’s a trend failure.
When the dollar fails to act as a safe haven in uncertain conditions, it signals something deeper: a loss of confidence in the U.S. economy or in its institutions.
Gareth breaks it down:
“The dollar is a barometer for how global countries look at the U.S. If they no longer see it as the great power it once was… they won’t be buying as many dollars.”
He also mentions the term “ddollarization”, a trend where nations slowly move away from holding USD reserves.
“I always said a year ago: it’s not happening that fast. But recent developments… in my opinion, have now sped up that ddollarization.”
Technical Target: Gareth is watching just below 97 on the DXY as the next major support.
This drop is helping to prop up gold and Bitcoin. But as we’ll see shortly, Gareth isn’t bullish on both…
6. Key Stock Setups: Nvidia, Alphabet, and Tesla
Nvidia: A $3 Trillion Giant Facing a Breakdown
“From this low in 2023, Nvidia rallied 980%… Now it is down about 36–37% from the highs. But look at the low pivot right here—perfect trendline.”
Nvidia’s meteoric rise over the past two years has been one of the most extreme moves in modern market history. From a low near $16, the stock ran to $150—becoming a $3 trillion company at its peak. But with that kind of momentum comes fragility.
Gareth points out a major trendline that Nvidia is now testing. Drawn from the 2023 lows through several key pivots, this line currently sits around $88. If it holds, Nvidia could bounce. But if it breaks and confirms to the downside?
“You’ll have a stopping point around 76, gap fill around 67, but eventually we could see a $50 handle.”
That would take the company from a $3 trillion valuation to just over $1 trillion—a staggering 66% collapse.
Support levels to watch:
- $88 – Key trendline
- $76 – Initial support
- $67 – Gap fill
- $50 – Long-term bear target
Gareth is clear: Don’t act on assumptions. Wait for confirmation. A daily close below the trendline signals the breakdown. Until then, it’s still just a test.
Alphabet (Google): A Two-Factor Swing Setup
“The level is right here at around 130 to 131… not only is it the low pivot from March of 2024, but if we do a Fibonacci retrace, we can see it also lines up perfectly with the 618.”
Gareth has always emphasized the power of multi-factor confluence. When two or more technical levels align, the probability of success increases dramatically.
Alphabet is now sitting in one of those zones. After a negative antitrust ruling last Thursday, the stock has drifted lower—and it’s now right in the $130–131 zone. That’s:
- The pivot low from March 2024
- The 61.8% retracement from the broader rally
“When you find two levels—meaning a Fibonacci in this case and the pivot low lines up perfectly—what that will do is the trade might have been let’s say a 60% win rate without a second factor, it probably bumps it to about a 75 plus percent win rate when you have two factors.”
Swing traders should be watching for confirmation before committing, but the setup is one of the cleanest in this market.
Tesla: The Fourth Hit Is a Warning, Not a Buy
“This trend line here at around the 214 level… if we attack it again, technically I would look at that as the fourth hit. There is a vulnerability there for a break of the fourth hit.”
Tesla has been bleeding lower, and it’s now within striking distance of a trendline that has held up three times already.
Gareth’s hit-count logic—doorway analytics—tells us:
“You probably get a small bounce and then the next leg lower takes over.”
His real buy zone? $170—a level that would mark the third hit on a deeper trendline and offer better odds.
“One hit, two hits, third hit should still yield a bounce, probability wise. That would be around 170 on the chart of Tesla. So you give me 170 handle on Tesla—I likely swing trade it as a buy.”
7. Commodities, Bitcoin & Macro Repositioning
Gold: Triple Parallel Resistance = High-Conviction Short
“Today, this morning, I tripled up on my short on gold. It’s now 12% of my commodities portfolio.”
Gareth doesn’t take aggressive positions lightly—but when multiple technical levels align, he acts with conviction.
In gold, he sees multiple parallel factor charts converging at the current level:
“You have the high from COVID… take a parallel right to this low… you drag it up, you get that exact high—that’s the red parallel.”
Then he adds:
“We look at the bigger picture… from the bull market of 2011 to the lows here in the bear market period… and that parallel with the 2011 high—it gives us this level.”
Put simply: the intersection of short- and long-term parallel trendlines creates a high-probability resistance zone. That’s why Gareth tripled down.
“When it gets north of 80%, which is what I have here, then I say okay this is a point where I overload—I average in, I triple up.”
Bitcoin: The Safe Haven Nobody Saw Coming
“Bitcoin continues to be a stellar performer… if you look at from February, this dip—we’ve basically been chopping sideways that whole entire time.”
Gareth draws a connection between Bitcoin’s relative strength and the dollar’s weakness:
“Why is Bitcoin all of a sudden acting like a reserve or safe haven asset? The answer is very simple: because the dollar is getting trounced.”
He speculates that major capital allocators are no longer going “100% in dollars” for safekeeping:
“Now let’s do 90/10 or 80/20. 80 in dollar, 20% in Bitcoin or gold.”
He even suggests some may have shifted entirely:
“Maybe it’s totally saying screw the dollar—let’s put 80% in gold, let’s put 20% in Bitcoin.”
Bitcoin’s resilience versus the S&P 500—which has declined dramatically since mid-February—isn’t random. It’s systemic. It’s capital shifting.
Silver, Oil & Natural Gas: Secondary But Watchworthy
Silver remains strong, holding trendline support:
“Silver continues to look strong—staying above this trendline. If it does continue up, we’re looking at the around the $35 level.”
Oil backed off after Friday’s geopolitical rally:
“Oil is down today… the negotiations with Iran went well over the weekend… but the bigger macro move is still to the downside.”
Natural Gas is teetering on the edge of a confirmed breakdown:
“It may confirm the breakdown today… you closed on the line below—didn’t confirm. We’ll see if today’s candle confirms.”
8. Conclusion: Signals from the Underbelly
“If you’re watching this and you said, ‘Oh, things will go back to normal’—they may. But you can’t deny that there’s some damage being done now.”
That line stuck with us. Gareth isn’t sounding an alarm just to do it—he’s reading the tape. And what he’s seeing in the dollar, the 10-year yield, Bitcoin, and gold isn’t noise. It’s signal. It’s structural.
Markets are pivoting toward a different kind of behavior—one shaped by mistrust in central banks, weakening reserve assets, and new liquidity flows.
As traders, we don’t predict—we prepare. And today, Gareth gave us the levels, the structure, and the logic to do just that.
