My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 01/29/2026: Gold Breakout and AI Stocks Collide as S&P Tests Critical Resistance

The financial markets are currently sending a dual signal that every investor needs to decode. On one hand, we have the S&P 500 pushing fractionally higher, trading around the 7,020 level, driven by an insatiable appetite for AI infrastructure. On the other hand, we are witnessing a historic breakout in gold, which has ripped above $5,600 per ounce. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, broke down this complex dynamic, explaining how the loss of faith in the global fiat system is colliding with a tech-fueled equity market.

Gold’s Historic Run: A Vote of No Confidence?

The headline story today is undoubtedly the precious metals market. Gold has pierced the $5,600 per ounce level, a move that signifies far more than just a commodity rally. According to Gareth, this price action is a direct reflection of how the world views the stability of the U.S. financial system and the purchasing power of the dollar.

"When I bought gold back in 2019, 2017, etc., it was kind of one of those things where it was a security blanket. It was an insurance policy just because I saw what was going on with the spending of the money and the running up of the debt. Now it's come to fruition."

While gold is technically overbought and likely due for a pullback to wash out weak hands, the long-term trajectory suggests we are in a new paradigm. The loss of faith in the financial system is reaching unprecedented levels. Gareth noted that while a correction is possible, seeing gold north of $10,000 per ounce within the next five years is a realistic scenario given the fiscal trajectory of the United States.

This thesis is supported by the technical weakness in the U.S. Dollar. The dollar index (DXY) is currently threatening to break a long-term trendline dating back to the financial crisis. If this support level fails, it could trigger an escalation in downside momentum for the greenback, further fueling the flight to hard assets like gold.

The Rhodium Play

For investors looking for value outside of the crowded gold trade, Gareth highlighted Rhodium. Currently trading around $10,000 an ounce, Rhodium is approximately 100 times rarer than gold yet lacks a major ETF, which keeps it off the radar for many retail investors. As an industrial metal used in catalytic converters, it offers a unique diversification angle for those looking to offset fiat currency depreciation.

The S&P 500: Approaching the Line in the Sand

While gold signals caution, the equity markets are testing a critical ceiling. The S&P 500 closed yesterday around 7,000 and is trading up to 7,020 today. However, the index is approaching a massive technical level: a parallel trendline that connects the COVID lows, the 2021 bull market top, and the subsequent liberation sell-off low.

This trendline represents a "make or break" moment for the broader market.

"If we get rejected here, folks, I think the market runs out of steam… If it can't [break out], that's where I do think you start to see a much bigger correction where we actually could see upwards of 10 to 20% downside."

To maintain the current buying frenzy and psychological greed, the S&P 500 must push through this resistance and enter price discovery mode. Failure to do so could result in a fast and furious correction, potentially triggered by a shift in the AI narrative or renewed inflation concerns.

A Tale of Two Tech Giants: Meta vs. Microsoft

The disparity in the market is best illustrated by the divergence between Meta and Microsoft, both of which are pouring billions into AI capital expenditures (CapEx).

Meta: The Short Setup

Meta is surging, up nearly 10% on the day, driven by its commitment to spend $135 billion over the next six months. This massive CapEx (capital expenditure) is essentially propping up U.S. GDP, masking stagnation in other sectors of the economy. However, from a trading perspective, the stock is hitting a wall.

Gareth identified a major gap fill level at $750-$751. This zone represents a high-probability "fade" or shorting opportunity. When a stock extends this aggressively into a significant technical resistance level, the probabilities shift in favor of a pullback.

Microsoft: The Value Opportunity

Conversely, Microsoft is trading down 6-7% as markets question the return on investment for its Azure cloud division. Despite a valuation of $3.5 trillion, the stock is facing selling pressure. For traders, this creates specific actionable levels:

• Day Trade Level: The first level of interest is the double bottom at $438.75. This is a classic technical support derived from a former pivot low.
• Swing Trade Level: For those with a longer time horizon, the "gap fill" at $395 offers a compelling entry point.

"When you look for a swing trade… one factor is good… Two factors, you're probably at 70 to 75 [percent probability]. Three factors, 75-80%."

The $395 level on Microsoft aligns with multiple technical factors, including the gap fill and trendline support, making it a robust area for a potential bounce.

The Inflation Resurgence: Oil and The Fed

While the Federal Reserve's recent meeting was largely a non-event, the inflation data brewing beneath the surface is concerning. Crude oil has rallied 15% in January alone, a move that will inevitably bleed into the CPI data due in mid-February.

Gareth pointed out that if we adjust for inflation over the last 10 to 20 years, oil should theoretically be trading between $80 and $90 per barrel. The current rally suggests that the market is beginning to price in this reality.

"My big kind of wild card is that… by the second quarter of 2026 I think inflation starts to go up, which is going to [put] the new Fed chair [under] a lot of pressure from President Trump to lower rates."

This creates a difficult environment for the Fed. With copper at all-time highs and energy prices climbing, the "inflation is under control" narrative may soon be challenged, potentially forcing a repricing of risk assets.

Bitcoin's Identity Crisis

In stark contrast to the equities and precious metals markets, Bitcoin continues to display technical weakness. Trading near 52-week lows while the S&P 500 and Gold are at or near all-time highs, Bitcoin is suffering from an identity crisis. Is it a risk asset? Is it digital gold? Currently, it is behaving like neither.

"Bitcoin continues to look horrendous, folks… Chart is bearish based on technicals. I still think it's going lower before I will consider really loading up."

Gareth emphasized that he is waiting for lower levels to accumulate a significant position, as the current chart structure does not support a bullish reversal.

Earnings Watch: Tesla, SAP, and Apple

The show also covered key technical levels for other major names moving on earnings:

• Tesla: Despite a poor quarter fundamentally, the stock is being buoyed by Elon Musk's ability to pivot the narrative toward robotics. However, the valuation remains disconnected from current auto sales reality.
• SAP: The stock took a hit on earnings. Gareth identified a day trade zone around $179-$175, with a more significant swing trade level at the gap fill of $163.
• Apple: Reporting after the bell, Apple sits at a pivotal juncture. If the stock sells off, support lies at $244. If it rallies, it faces heavy resistance at $270.

Conclusion: The Fiscal Reality Check

Underlying all the chart patterns and trade setups is a fundamental concern about the fiscal health of the economy. The GDP growth we are seeing is largely artificial, driven almost single-handedly by AI CapEx spending while the labor market remains flat and the deficit balloons.

As Gareth concluded, "Fiscal responsibility must come back or we're all going to pay the price."

For traders, this environment requires extreme discipline. It is not a time to chase hype or narratives. It is a time to rely on logic, charts, and proven technical levels. Whether it is shorting Meta at resistance, waiting for Microsoft at support, or holding gold as an insurance policy, the key is to execute based on probabilities, not emotions.

The cracks in the foundation are widening. By sticking to the charts, investors can navigate the volatility and find opportunities even as the macro landscape becomes increasingly complex.